Road to Iturup

On May 17, Assistant Presidential Assistance to the President of the Russian Federation Yuri Ushakov said that at the end of the year Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan may take place

The visit was planned for 2014, but the Ukrainian crisis and sanctions that followed from Russia, which Japan joined, prevented. A sharp warming in relations with Tokyo occurred on May 6, when the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Putin. Literally beamed with the affection for the President of Russia, he announced the “new approach” to the problem of “northern territories”, that is, to the question of the territorial affiliation of the islands of the Kuril ridge. And the "new approach", they say, will certainly lead to a breakthrough. Putin did not object. A little more time has passed - and here it is announced about the expected visit by Putin to Tokyo. Is Russia and Japan really at the threshold of a new era?

The problem of Kunashir and Iturup, two extreme southern Islands of the Kuril ridge, as well as the islands of Shikotan and the group of the Habomai Islands, strictly speaking to the Kurils not related, poisoning the relations of the USSR (Russia) and Japan for 60 years. Over the years, it has overgrown with a huge number of rumors, speculations and intrigues, has become a donkey on which the professional patriots of both countries are checked. But-still far from the decision. Several times it seemed that it was close, but it did not work. Therefore, when Abe declares a close breakthrough, it is appropriate to ask: what, in fact, is considered such?

For Japan, a breakthrough would be documented Russia's documented consent to recognize all the controversial islands of Japanese and the obligation to transfer them to Japan. Let not immediately, albeit in parts, but to convey. Russia, on the contrary, would consider a breakthrough to Japan’s full refusal of its territorial claims qualified as an attempt to revise the results of the Second World War. (Which is not entirely true, more precisely, not at all, but this is another topic.)

You can reconcile two such objectively incompatible positions at the cost of compromise, which in its basic version involves the transfer of Japan to the islands of Habomai and Shikotan. Plus, perhaps, it allows any vague agreement to return to the discussion of fate and two other islands-someday in the future.

The problem of the four tiny islands of the Kuril ridge has been poisoning relations with Japan for 60 years

It is generally accepted that consent to such a compromise would be suicide for any Japanese government. Is it really so is unknown. But the probability of such a scenario is undoubtedly great. Japan is a democratic country, and its prime minister is by no means an autocrat: one wrong step-and he is already a former. With this in mind, it is appropriate to assume: Prime Minister Abe will not take risks. Rather, it will be necessary to break President Putin on much more serious concessions.

Prime Minister Abe, it is quite possibly possible for such hopes.

Indeed, unlike him, the President of Russia does not risk anything. Possessing unlimited power, he does not report to anyone and is free to make any decision. And the propaganda machine he created is always ready to “sell” this decision to the subordinate population as the victory of Russia. It is clear that Putin is unlikely to be located as a “Russian land collector” to territorial concessions. But now he is forced to think about the breakthrough of the international isolation, in which, having annexing the Crimea, Russia was. In the sake of achieving this goal, he might have been ready even for an unprecedented transaction with Japan. The question is the price that she agrees to pay. Guessing on this subject is pointless. However, just the other day, Prime Minister Abe will have to share their plans for Russia with foreign colleagues at the G7 summit, which will take place just in Japan. And then, perhaps, the fate of the four islands in the ocean will understand at least a little.

Photo: Eugene.kaspersky.ru, Alexander Shcherbak/TASS