Night conversation

Why Putin suddenly became a humanist and what awaits Ukraine now

For many days now in Kyiv there has been only talk about the release of Nadezhda Savchenko. Everyone asks the question: why did this happen? Why did Putin suddenly decide to demonstrate humanism, which, as we know, is generally unusual for him. And by the way, if someone remembers the story of the pardon of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, for me personally it is still difficult to explain. On the eve of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, on the eve of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, which many analysts pointed to, Putin did not receive in the end, and then completely crossed everything out with the annexation of Crimea.

Why did he again agree to meet the numerous calls of Western politicians and public figures - to release, exchange Savchenko? After all, in his picture of the world, this means yielding to outside pressure, showing weakness, and “the weak are beaten” are Putin’s words, spoken repeatedly.

Change of approach

Moreover, Putin has now come under fire from his own opposition from the right, which has long suspected the president of “leaking” the Donbass – the angry comments of numerous adherents of the “Russian spring” from Limonov to Girkin-Strelkov were not long in coming.

Further - more: the most attentive observers noticed: in the story with Savchenko, for the first time, Putin changed his previously unshakable approach to the issue of pardon - they say, there must certainly be a corresponding petition from the convict. Even the aforementioned Khodorkovsky, a proud man who did not bend for many years, had to write such a petition. And here they failed to get a single line from Savchenko, they had to invent a story about a petition written by relatives of journalists, whose death Nadezhda was allegedly guilty of. Incidentally, when the possibility of Khodorkovsky's pardon was discussed at one time, some Russian human rights activists offered the authorities just such a way: they themselves or relatives, friends, members of the public, etc., could write a petition. But the authorities said: no, only the convict himself.

Now, please.

What happened?

It's hard to get rid of the feeling that time was working against Putin. That he took on certain obligations that he had to fulfill by the deadline. It is possible that telephone conversations between the heads of the Normandy Four countries - Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin - on the night of May 23-24 played a key role here.

The message that appeared on the RIA Novosti tape, citing anonymous sources in Moscow, that the decision was made earlier, and the participants in those night talks were only informed about it, seems to me personally unconvincing. One senior European diplomat in Kyiv, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that according to him, the final solution to the “Savchenko problem” was found during that same conference call on Monday.

Factor named "Merkel"

None of us, perhaps, for a long time or never will know how everything really happened, but I admit that Vladimir Vladimirovich could at the last moment start something like this “hurdy-gurdy”: according to our legislation, the petition of the convict is required, but the convict does not want it write... Here, for example, Angela Merkel could get involved in the situation. Because she already had something similar once - with the now fugitive Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych. I was told about this episode much later.

Merkel discussed with Yanukovych the fate of opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, talked about the need for her release, including for Ukraine to move closer to the EU (and Yanukovych was still going to move closer to Europe). In response, he "turned on the fool" and began to talk about the impossibility of releasing Tymoshenko without violating the laws of Ukraine. And then Merkel said: “Mr. Yanukovych, this is my personal request to you. Please do this for our future relationship with you.” Yanukovych, the poor fellow, did not understand that this was his "finest hour" - with such a request, the German chancellor could turn to him only once. He missed this chance, and his personal relationship with Merkel was put an end to. Which in the end did not fail to affect the position of Germany during the events on the Maidan, and the sad fate of Yanukovych himself.

Putin is much smarter - if we assume that Merkel in that night conversation asked him to release Savchenko in approximately the same terms, I think he would have reckoned with the personal request of the chancellor.

A European diplomat in Kyiv spoke on condition of anonymity: according to his information, the final solution to the “Savchenko problem” was found during a conference call on the night of May 24

Incidentally, the Western diplomat I spoke to vehemently denied my suggestion that Putin might be trying to bargain for the lifting or easing of sanctions against Russia in exchange for freedom for Savchenko. This was not and could not be. The G-7's statement in Japan about its intention to continue the policy of sanctions against Russia is another evidence of this, he said, adding that, of course, at the upcoming EU summit in late June, the decision to extend European sanctions against Moscow would be made with greater difficulty than at previous meetings of European leaders at the top, but - it will be accepted. Let's see.

At the fork

In any case, the question remains, what can Ukraine expect from Russia in the near future?

Now the Ukrainian side looks like a clear winner, the Russian side looks like a loser.

Putin must somehow compensate for this defeat. The question is what? I do not rule out that various kinds of troubles can await Ukraine.

And one more question that many people ask today. Nadezhda Savchenko has returned home - will she, a person whom the vast majority of Ukrainians perceive as a national heroine, expect a successful political career?

Of course, those who recall are right: in the recent history of Ukraine there were already courageous, passionate figures who showed themselves both on the Maidan and at the front, but when they entered politics, they did not show themselves in any way, they were blown away, lost their former popularity, did not take place just like politicians.

Judging by Savchenko's first press conference, she understands this very well. She realizes that she has returned to a completely different country from where she was abducted two years ago. In my opinion, it did not look inadequate at all, although many predicted exactly that.

Savchenko will now inevitably try to use as a flag other, more experienced, sophisticated, cynical politicians - in power and in opposition. If they fail, if she tries to show independence, many problems await her - and dirt will suddenly pour on her, and all kinds of compromising evidence, and they will try to debunk her, and put her in the worst possible light. In any case, she will have to go through many more forks in her new path.