Leaving minority

Russia risks losing its last educated and entrepreneurial citizens

“The number of those wishing to emigrate from Russia is declining,” according to a recent report from Eurobarometer in Russia, a survey conducted by the Viktor Vakhshtain Center for Sociological Research. It would seem great news, especially for jingoistic patriots. Let's look, however, in detail. First of all, the decrease in those who want to “blame” is associated with the general low level of social mobility in the country. Only 25% of respondents say they are going to move to another locality within the next three years, and only a tenth of them are going to move abroad for permanent residence. Approximately 1/3 of Russians at the same time, in principle, expect to move to another region, and 23% said they would like to move to another city in their own region. The number of those wishing to move to Moscow is declining - a dream of living abroad, realized at home. Mostly young people under 24 think about the capital; students. Emigration to other countries is planned by young specialists aged 25-35. But three-quarters of Russians actually prefer to stay at home.

The desire to emigrate, rightly noted by sociologists, is associated with the experience of visiting abroad. It is logical: those who have seen Paris would rather die in it than those who have never been anywhere themselves, but look at the world through the eyes of state television channels. The situation is aggravated by the economic crisis. Due to the reduction in income last year, about a third of those who more or less traveled to other countries began to save on foreign tourism and in most cases simply gave up such luxury. At the same time, one must understand that more than half of Russians have never been abroad. Even in Moscow, where figures differ from the national average, only 58% of respondents said they could afford at least one foreign trip in a lifetime. Only 10% of Muscovites go abroad more than once a year; across the country, there are less than 4% of such people. At the same time, according to Eurobarometer data, 4/5 of the Russian population (ie, about 80%) have either never been abroad or have gone there only once.

Two other motives for leaving, in addition to practical knowledge of what a foreign country is and how people live there, are a high level of education plus dissatisfaction with life in one's own country. It is very significant how the horizon of ambitions in relation to one's own mobility is connected with the education received. People with secondary education more often do not dream of moving beyond the neighboring city, holders of a university degree are ready to move to another region or to a large metropolis, while those who have experience in receiving additional education, studied at distance courses, trainings, etc., more often dream of abroad. And, on the contrary, the refusal to emigrate, as well as to move within the country, is usually associated with uncertainty in one's abilities, unwillingness to take risks, to run one's own business. Not distinguished by either a broad outlook or professionalism, our majority prefers a small but stable salary in rubles, one way or another adapting to the hardships of fate. If possible, without going outside.

A good education breeds ambition, which in turn breeds discontent and a desire to change things. But many no longer hope to change anything in the country, so they think to change the country to another. If earlier, in relatively prosperous years, according to Eurobarometer, Russians wanted to leave because they believed that their lives had improved and wanted to live even better, now the main incentive to leave is the realization that the situation is getting worse. The top five irritants are low wages (74%), unemployment (60%), bad roads and traffic jams (66%), high housing costs and the inability to save up for your own apartment (56%), and the poor quality of healthcare (54%). Sociologists are forced to admit that those who intend to go abroad are much more likely to be dissatisfied with the political situation and do not believe in the country's economic future.

What conclusions can be drawn from all these figures? Against the backdrop of the crisis, the Russians are gradually sobering up, trying to realistically assess their chances. Most cannot afford to travel abroad, let alone emigrate. Travel is hampered by falling income levels, and an obstacle to emigration is the average low level of education that does not meet the requirements of developed countries. The majority that has formed in recent years in Russia is not distinguished by its inclination to change both in their personal destiny and in the country. This majority is more obedient than aggressive. Everyone knows that it’s bad and it will get worse, but they don’t want to do anything. Because they do not know how and are afraid to take risks. Against the general background, a group of dissatisfied people stands out, small in number, but very valuable for the country. These are the last truly well-educated and self-employed people left in the country. It is this ever-dwindling human resource in Russia that the country runs the risk of losing completely if the changes demanded by the minority do not come.