Deja vu

The Russian economy has adapted to the sanctions regime and low oil prices. The geopolitical situation is normalized. The financial sector is stabilizing, the ruble does not suit the somersaults, inflation is reduced, and the banking system is preparing to reduce loans. Already in the second half of the year in Russia, recovery growth may begin, which will continue next year, and, of course, in 2018. This kind of official forecasts appear more and more often, their tone is becoming more optimistic. This optimism is directly related to the state of the global oil market. After the January panic sales, the cost of the Brent barrel, which the entire Russian economy is guided, has almost doubled, reaching 50 dollars in the Russian budget. If this goes further ...

Russian officials can be understood. I really want to believe that the worst is behind, especially after the panic winter. In addition, everything - both good and bad - sooner or later ends. In theory, the current one, lasting for two years, should end, must end. So it is not only possible to promise a close improvement in the situation, but it is also necessary: suddenly the hidden investors will believe, they will get from offshore cubes hidden there until better times and begin to invest in the domestic producer. And the main consumer of official forecasts, who in just two years to be elected for the next term, should be sure that by that time the electorate will have time to feel real improvements that will help the country make the right choice. Otherwise, again, you will have to start some small victorious war, simultaneously transferring the economy to mobilization rails. And in the mobilization model of the current government team there is clearly no place. It’s good if they let go with the world.

The majority had nothing left of the accumulated in the "fat years", and if a year ago it was possible to talk about the delayed demand, now we do not have to talk about him

The temptation to believe that the worst is behind, to join the choir of optimists, to declare the end of the crisis is great. But the current situation suspiciously resembles the beginning of the summer last year, after which the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev received the nickname "Divers" for his regular relations that the Russian economy has pushed away from the bottom and is about to begin growth. Last spring, oil also grew up, flying from the January $ 45 per barrel to almost $ 70. And in early July, having left below 60, oil began a protracted peak, which ended with minimums of this January. And if we compare the current situation with last year, it is obvious: then there were much more premises for growth. The past year has greatly blooded the population - a potential source of solvent demand, and a business - a potential source of investment, and the state is a source of possible incentives for both the first and second category. There was nothing left of the accumulated in the "fat years", and if a year ago it was possible to talk about the delayed demand, now there is no need to talk about him. Investors, in the light of regular conversations about the need to increase taxes, are also not eager to invest in the Russian economy. Small and medium -sized businesses, which Russian officials far from realities are trying to bet on realities, did not forget the bulldozer exrases of the Moscow City Hall.

The most unpleasant thing is that now the next global economic crisis begins to ripen, the epicenter of which, most likely, will be China and which can begin in 2017-2018. If we take into account that the world economies have already spent their arsenal of anti -crisis incentives in recent years, then the 2008 collapse may turn out to be a mild prelude to these problems. You can, of course, console yourself with the fact that since the beginning of anti -Russian sanctions, the country's economy has become much less dependent on what is happening in the world. However, this is an illusion. The fall of the global economy will at least adversely affect the demand for raw materials, and the current stabilization in Russia will become another plateau before a new collapse.

Maxim Blunt - Economic Observer, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department of Fingrad

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office