Between the drain and the explosion

In the Donbass - another exacerbation of hostilities. For the first time in a long time, mines and shells were torn in residential quarters. Among the dead and wounded are civilians. The New Times is trying to figure out who is beneficial to “suspend” the conflict and what such a situation can lead

In one night in the Donbass, 44 houses, Donetsk, Ukraine, June 9, 2016 were destroyed

According to the UN, during a full -scale war, which began in the east of Ukraine about two years ago, 9371 were killed and 21,532 people were injured. However, many experts consider these figures substantially underestimated. For example, they do not take into account the Russian volunteers and “vacationers” killed and injured. In order to stop the fratricidal confrontation, the first (September 5, 2014) and the second (February 12, 2015) Minsk agreements were signed by representatives of the parties to the conflict and international intermediaries. For a while, the confrontation was tortured. But now, apparently, the conflict may flare up with renewed vigor.

Life under fire

For several months now, more and more alarming reports have come from the front. “In recent months, there has been an increase in shelling. Their number sometimes reaches 500 per day, ”said Eduard Basurin, deputy commander of the Donetsk operational command of the Donetsk operational command. - Only during the night from June 8 to 9 in Donetsk, Makeevka, Gorlovka, Dokuchaevsk and Yasinovataya, 44 houses were destroyed, two of them were apartment buildings. A woman died, 15 people were injured, among whom is a two -year -old child. ” According to the DPR Ministry of Defense, shelling is carried out from mortars, guns and self-propelled guns of 122- and 152-mm calibers.

The Ukrainian side, in turn, accuses the DPR troops of artillery in settlements. So, after the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces) of the town of Avdeevka, the work of the Koksochemical Plant was paralyzed.

Judging by the reports of the special monitoring mission (SMM) of the OSCE, the whole week there was an increase in the number of cases of violation of the ceasefire in the Donetsk region. The head of the mission, Alexander Khug, said at a briefing on June 7 that “three quarters of violations of the ceasefire in the ATO zone are on Avdeevka, the Donetsk airport. Many people in these territories are still forced to sit in the basements. ”

The shelling, as a rule, begin at night, when the members of the OSCE mission do not go to the front line. “In the dark, observers are sitting in their hotel and maintain a telephone connection with us,” Basurin said.

We have nothing to do with

Perhaps a new round of tension is just a tool necessary for one of the parties to the conflict in order to put pressure on opponents. Negotiations conducted by members of the contact group in Minsk for almost a year and a half are obviously falling out. So, on May 31 and June 1, the OSCE representatives presented an expanded version of the proposals for holding local elections. However, according to the application of the acting head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the self -proclaimed DPR, Natalia Nikonorova, the participants in the time were enough only to discuss three of the 12 points of the document. Earlier in the media there was information that the assistant to US Secretary of State Victoria Nuland convinced Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to adopt a law on local elections in the Donbass until the end of May, and to conduct the vote itself before the end of August. However, the voting date has not yet been established. Also, the meeting participants were not able to achieve significant progress in the issue of the exchange of prisoners. The next meeting of the contact group in the Belarusian capital is scheduled for June 15.

“During the time since the signing of the second Minsk agreements, the parties could not even decide in what sequence they should be implemented”

“During the time that passed since the signing of the second Minsk agreements, the parties could not even decide in what sequence they should be implemented,” says NT a source close to the DPR government (he agreed only on anonymity conditions). - We believe that the agreements must be followed sequentially, in the manner specified in the document. The head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, said that a set of measures is not a menu from a restaurant in which you can only choose what you like. This is a “roadmap”, which provides for a clear sequence of steps. And Kyiv, on the contrary, offers to come from the end and start by transferring control over the border with Russia to him or his allies. ”

During shelling, large caliber guns, Donetsk, Ukraine, June 9, 2016 are used

The Kyiv authorities really insist that the Armed Forces of Ukraine or international organizations be allowed to be allowed. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Klimkin stated on June 7: “We need the border to be controlled - this will be the OSCE police mission or the OSCE SMM.” The logic of the Ukrainian side is understandable: holding elections in the Donbass in an open border with Russia is to maintain pressure channels, financial and other things, Moscow. Kyiv even claims that he has evidence (records of negotiations) of the consent of Moscow to introduce international armed forces to the Donbass. The Russian Foreign Ministry, however, denied these messages. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, the placement of the OSCE mission at the border can occur only after the special status of Donbass in the Constitution of Ukraine.

Pull

“The Minsk complex of measures does not have a rigid sequence of execution of all 13 points,” said NT Russian political analyst Alexei Chesnakov, whom some specialists call “the voice of Vladislav Surkov. - As in other similar cases, the parties should demonstrate positive signals at once on all points. There are a number of points that logically follow one of the other, but no general sequence in the Minsk agreements is laid down. ”

According to Chesnakov, it is impossible to fulfill the Minsk agreements before the end of 2016 or even until mid -2017. The expert believes that the “suspension” of the conflict is beneficial to Kyiv: “In this state, they may well solve a number of problems of survival and strengthening their own positions. For them, "suspension" is not the worst option. Firstly, because in addition to the script of “suspension” there are many other scenarios that are much less desirable for Kyiv. And secondly, they did not fully decide whether they need Donbass. All their actions of recent months rather create new obstacles to restore the general political space. ”

“Recently in the Donbass, Surkov held a meeting (according to NT , this was in early May), at which he made the so -called republics a tough outlet,” Vadim Karasev, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, told NT . - Perhaps in Moscow the idea of ​​replacing the heads of the DPR and LPR with other persons is considered. A similar necessity is caused by the fact that Kyiv will never lead with Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky of any dialogue. And without this, it will not be possible to move the implementation of the Minsk agreements from the dead point, which means that sanctions will not be lifted. ”

According to Karasev, a mixed administration can be organized in the future, which will include, for example, the Ukrainian oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov and Yuri Boyko. Both use the population support in the Donbass and have enough their own money to provide humanitarian assistance to local. “And most importantly, they have a personal interest in ensuring that these areas in which the business belonged to remain in Ukraine and in its economic space, says the political scientist. - Large metallurgical enterprises, such as Donetsk, Alchevsky, Enakievsky metallurgical plants, the owner of which is Akhmetov, continue to pay taxes to the budget of Ukraine and still produce products, which can only go through Ukraine. Their employees receive a salary in hryvnias. After all, no one will buy goods in the DPR or LPR. According to Karasev, elections to local authorities will be held compensively under the patronage of the oligarchs. And after the formation of these institutions, Ukraine will receive political entities for negotiations, which will finally resolve the issue of the status of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

“Kyiv will never lead with Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky of any dialogue. And without this, it will not be possible to move the implementation of the Minsk agreements from the dead point, which means that sanctions will not be lifted ”

The former head of the DPR Alexander Borodai categorically does not agree with this. “I think that all the talk about the possible replacement of the leadership of the republics is nothing more than rumors related to eternal lamentations about the drain of the republics,” the ex-Prime Minister of the DPR told NT . - Since they (conversations) undermine the internal climate of the DPR and LPR, it becomes clear that they are spread by opponents of free Donbass. Do not forget that the SBU is actively working in completely different fields, including the direction of the information war. ”

The price of a dead end

NT sources in the Government of the DPR do not exclude in the near future the explosive growth of clashes in the Donbass. Some political scientists agree with them. “Armed exacerbation is possible, since the Ukrainian side did not want to create conditions and mechanisms for political processes designed to make settlement irreversible,” Chesnakov believes. - If Kiev had adopted options for amendments to the Constitution, the law on special status and the election law, armed exacerbation would be much less likely than now. In the meantime, the distrust of the parties only increases. And therefore, the probability of exacerbation increases. ”

“Exacerbations on the contact line always begin when the implementation of the Minsk agreements comes to a dead end,” Ukrainian political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko tells NT . - I see several components in this. The pressure from Russia, and from the West, including the armed, from the DPR and the LPR, is now in Ukraine. This is done so that our parliamentarians finally adopt the amendments to the Constitution, expanding the powers of the territories of Ukraine, not controlled today by Kiev. Today, such a decision is almost impossible to achieve, since there is no sufficient number of votes in the Verkhovna Rada. ” Bondarenko claims that the activation of military operations by the unrecognized republics causes the response of the Ukrainian military, which demonstrate their disobedience to official Kyiv and willingness to disrupt the Minsk agreements. “In Ukraine, there are a lot of radical elements that do not want to change the law and even the cessation of war,” adds a political scientist. “I am sure that the only decision is the adoption of the necessary changes in the framework of the Minsk agreements.” Bondarenko is sure that otherwise Kyiv may lose allies in Paris and Berlin soon. “It is one thing to be the outpost of the West in the post -Soviet space, another - to remain a doll of the United States,” he summarizes.

Photo: Alexander Ermochenko/Anadolu Agency, Mikhail Sokolov/TASS