If I'm leaving tomorrow...

What awaits Britain in the event of parting with the EU

The referendum on June 23 is considered by everyone in Britain to be the most important vote in the last few decades. The government even had to extend the registration period for those who wished to vote: the site where this could be done collapsed on the last day of registration under the pressure of those who wanted to vote.

Much of the EU membership argument boils down to the fact that the status quo is better than the unknown. For what exactly will happen if Britain leaves the European Union - no one knows, but everyone agrees: it will affect the economy - and not in the best way. This argument is supported by the markets: the FTSE 100, an index of shares of the world's largest public companies by capitalization, which are traded on the London Stock Exchange, lost more than £80 billion in four days, the British pound also fell due to market participants' fear of uncertainty.

However, supporters of leaving the EU insist that there is really no uncertainty. Even if on June 24, after the votes are counted, it becomes clear that the British have chosen Brexit, this does not mean that they will wake up in a “different country” on the 25th. There have been no precedents for secession from the EU, but the procedure is strictly prescribed: in order to formalize its secession, the country is given two years. Taking into account the notorious Brussels bureaucracy, the procedure could take up to five years.

The fact that chaos will reign in the markets for some time in the event of leaving the EU is understandable by default. On the other hand, the level of decline in the markets of Britain and Europe on the eve of the referendum is not critical. For example, the fall of the stock market - at the level of February 2016; depreciation of the pound sterling - approximately at the level of three years ago.

It is much more difficult to assess what will happen if Britain leaves the EU with international trade. The British economy is the fifth largest in the world, and the European Union is its largest trading partner. If Brexit goes through, Britain will have to enter into separate trade agreements with each of the 27 EU countries burdened with obligations to Brussels. The European headquarters of many companies, businesses and banks are in the UK - no one knows if they will want to stay in London and other cities in the event of Brexit. In Britain, by the way, there are also assembly plants of many automobile companies focused on the European market.

What is pushing many Britons towards Brexit is not only the dominance of the Brussels bureaucracy with its desire to control the movement of goods, capital and labor, but also the desire to regain control over its borders. At the same time, however, the British are not at all ready to give up their right to travel to Europe without visas. Brexit supporters are still unable to clearly explain what will happen in the event of leaving the EU with those EU citizens who already live and work in the United Kingdom, and what will happen to the British permanently living abroad. The latter, by the way, do not have the right to participate in the referendum on June 23.

In addition to the economic consequences of leaving the EU, there may also be serious political ones. The Scottish National Party, which recently lost by a narrow margin the referendum on the withdrawal of Scotland from the UK, has already said that in the event of Brexit it will hold a referendum again. Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, does not currently have a formal border with the Republic of Ireland - in the event of Brexit, one may have to be created.

Finally, the referendum virtually split the ruling Conservative Party in Britain: half of its current MPs are campaigning for the country's exit from the EU, the other half, including Prime Minister David Cameron, for staying. But virtually all politicians agree: in the event of a Brexit, Cameron will have to resign.

Forecast

Confederation of British Industry: "Brexit could lead to a reduction in GDP by 5%, that is, almost £ 100 billion, put 950 thousand people out of work by 2020."

Institute for Fiscal Research: "Brexit will cost Britain between £20bn and £40bn. The government will have to cut spending by 5bn, save another 5bn on social spending and raise taxes by 5bn - that's two extra years of austerity."

Vote Leave: "If we leave the EU, the UK's GDP will be 4% higher in ten years compared to what it would have been if the country had remained in the EU."

OECD: "Britain's departure from the EU could cause an economic shock for the UK ... by 2020, the country's GDP will be 3-5% lower than projected if Britain remains in the EU, which is equivalent to losing £2,200 to the average family's income" .

Standard & Poor's: Britain's credit rating could be downgraded from AAA to AA or even A if it leaves the EU.

Barclays Bank: "Brexit could cause the collapse of the entire EU, and in the ensuing chaos, Britain will become a safe haven for capital, into which investment flows will pour."

EU Delegation to Britain: “The United Kingdom's contribution is net (net of rebates and subsidies for various sectors of the British economy) £6.7 billion. This is less than half a percent of GDP. On a per capita basis, EU membership costs Britain less than Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Belgium.”

Open Europe: Brexit worst-case scenario UK GDP down 2.2% by 2030 The best (if we can quickly reach an agreement with the EU on free trade) - GDP will grow by 1.6% over the same time.