Brexit left the fog

Supporters of the exit of Britain from the EU are satisfied: a few days before the referendum on June 23, polls show their numerical advantage. But a couple of months ago the picture was completely different. What happened to the British - the New Times sorted out

Cups with signatures “I stay” and “Britain stronger with Europe” on the table before starting a television show with the participation of Prime Minister Cameron, London, June 16, 2016

On June 16, in Western Yorkshire, in broad daylight, a brutally killed deputy Labor John Cox, a charming woman, a mother of two children, was brutally killed. She was elected to parliament only last year, passionately believed that Britain must have remained in the European Union and receive refugees from Syria. She talked about this at the next meeting with voters, when a scream was suddenly heard: “Britain - above all!”, After which the screaming, pulled a gun from his pocket and began to shoot at it, then launched a knife. The organizers of both campaigns - for and against the exit of Britain from the EU - immediately after announcing that they were suspended agitation - as a sign of mourning. Fans of conspiracy theories were immediately noted in social networks in a traditional way - they say that these adherents of a united Europe arranged a vile provocation in order to influence the outcome of the referendum. From the opposite flank they answered them: no, these are supporters of the EU so fueled nationalist sentiments that neither acts of violence, nor even political murder, they no longer seem surprising.

Nevertheless: the British are not too sentimental people. And with all due respect to the deceased, it is unlikely that many will change their attitude to the European Union due to one tragic episode. And public opinion before the referendum began to include in favor of leaving the EU.

The English soul

On June 15, a representative of one of the largest bookmaker agencies William Hill said: almost 80 % of the rates are made in favor of Brexit (abbreviated from British Exit - “British exit” from the European Union. - NT ). This news is important, first of all, because in Britain the bets of bookmakers, as a rule, lag behind the polls of public opinion, which more recently showed the clear advantage of the Rimainers (from the English. Remain), that is, those who want to stay in the EU. In March 2016, when NT wrote about preparations for a referendum (see NT No. 9 of March 21, 2016 ), the picture was this: a third of the population was for exit from the EU, a third for staying. But then the pendulum suddenly swayed in the opposite direction: now with a margin of three, six or more percent, authors (OUTERS) or LEAVERS (Leavers) are leading, as supporters of leaving the EU are now more often called.

What could have affected public moods so much during this time? The answer is obvious: the Brexit propagandists managed to find a pain point, the “corn” of the English soul is the problem of immigration, on which all the hardships and fears of the masses are successfully lying. Moreover, it is about the English, not the British soul. It is in England, and not in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, as can be seen from the polls, that is the rapid growth of anti -European and anti -immigrant sentiments. The revived English chauvinism in the last days has a bright embodiment on TV screens-drunken, evil faces of the English football fans, whose new anthem was a speech: “We won the war ... We won and I-Yu (EU-EU). We will win again, your mother is growing ”(free translation, English mat is not easy to shift to Russian). What is not a roll call with the slogan of Russian haters of Europe, who also recall a military victory, "we can repeat."

However, much more respectable figures also in their propaganda efforts equate the EU with Hitler: they say, their methods are different, and the goal is one. A similar statement was made by Boris Johnson, a very popular mayor of London, and now the unspoken leader of the supporters of Brexit and the applicant for the chairman of the Prime Minister.

The main support

Against the isolation of the country from the continent-the leadership of all the main political parties: conservatives, lawrists, liberal democrats and "green". Deputies of the House of Commons and members of the House of Lords. Managers of large companies (Tue, Rolls-Royce), writers, cultural figures, artists and directors (280 of them signed a collective letter calling for their people to come to their senses and not to separate their fate from other Europeans), scientists, including Nobel Prize laureates. No, of course, in all these categories there are not so few people of opposite views. For example, the famous actor Michael Kane and the author of the Daunton Abbey script Julian Fellowe advocated parting with the EU. The brilliant inventor of new household appliances, billionaire James Dyson and President Formula 1, require Bernie Ecclestone, require the same
He announced that he would have nothing against Europe, "only if Vladimir Putin ruled it." Nevertheless, in almost all groups of the elite, Euroskeptics are clearly in the minority.

The new anthem of the English fans was a speech: “We won the war ... We will win the“ I-Yu ”(EU-EU). Let's win again, your mother is growing up "

Farmers (which is surprising, given their strong dependence on the EU subsidies), small businessmen-custarians, declassified lumpen and unemployed, builders, pensioners and some, however, are quite significant, part of the middle provincial class, primarily in the north of the country, provide massive Brexit support. And of course, that part of the business for which the lack of customs barriers with the countries of continental Europe is not a good, but a hindrance, a source of competition. But the main support of Brexit was the working class, especially low -skilled. These are mainly the voters of the Laborists who refuse to listen to the party’s leadership and even to the trade unions: the 12 largest of them categorically advocated that Britain remained in the EU, explaining that it is from Brussels that protecting working instructions and rules come from Brussels.

The leader of the Independence Party of the United Kingdom (UKIP) Nigel Faraj with one of the supporters of Brexit, Ramsgate (Great Britain), June 13, 2016

The mood of the proletarians became a shock for many left -wing socialists. The most probably famous and popular figure and publicist among them is Polly Toynby, the granddaughter of the famous historian and culturalist Arnold Toynbee, who herself wrote several popular books. Polly spent a day at the headquarters of the Labor, where young, competent volunteers called the voters of their party in the county of Nottinghamshire, trying to prove to them with the help of numbers and facts of advantages for Britain and especially for workers in the EU. What I heard Polly shocked her. “One call after another - and the answer all the time: out, out, out! - "Won!" Always the same explanations: the immigration in the first place, in the second - mythical £ 350 million, which Britain supposedly pays Brussels every week. On the third - "I want to regain my country for myself." In the article in The Guardian Polly Toynby quotes Labor voters: “Our country is crowded. Sorry, but there is no place for anyone else. I can’t sign up for a doctor, I can’t arrange children in school, I can’t get an apartment. ”

Toynbee tried to convince the interlocutors that all these problems are the result of a policy of strict savings and reducing government spending, which is carried out by the Conservative Party. But they still continued to be taldy, blaming all the troubles of immigrants. “Stop them, they don’t have a place here, ours should receive everything first of all,” Polly heard.

Murdok is delighted

The most popular newspaper of the working class of The Sun played the fatal role in the British mindset, who has stubbornly zombie the readers for many years, pumping them with hatred of the EU and immigrants. Surely the owner is also satisfied - Rupert Murdok, offended by the current British government after the investigation of Levison, who established a systematic and egregious violation of elementary ethics, and often the law in his newspapers. No wonder Murdok sent congratulations to one of the leaders of the movement of Brexit Michael Gova when he moved to the camp of the opponents of Cameron. Newspapers recall how in “good old days”, when Murdok, as they say, opened the doors to the offices of the great world, he openly explained to the famous journalist Anthony Hilton, why he hates the European Union: “When I come to Dauning Street, they do everything that I tell them. When I arrive in Brussels, they ignore me. ”

Boulevard newspapers were trimmed with arshin headings on the first pages that the queen herself supports Brexit. This misinformation was immediately refuted by the Buckingham Palace: the queen in such debate adheres to the strictest neutrality and will never allow neither directly, nor indirectly, nor a hint, nor a semi -deme to make his position. But as a result, the broad masses remained in the belief that the monarch is against membership in the EU, and this, without a doubt, influenced the opinion of many. And the day after the massacre in the Orlando gay club, another of the pillars of the British Yellow Press-The Daily Mail, perhaps the only newspaper of the Western world that did not find a place for this news on its first page: instead-an article under a sensational headline: “Fury about a conspiracy to let (to Britain) one and a half million Turks.” What is the conspiracy? And the fact that some supporters of Brexit in Forein Office staged a leakage of official correspondence of the British diplomat, deputy head of the mission in Ankara (not even an ambassador), in which she carefully raises the question of the possibility of providing “special” passports-visa-free regime as a gesture of goodwill. This initiative did not find understanding either in the government or in the leadership of the Foreign Ministry. But if the facts do not coincide with the headlines, the worse for the facts.

“Our country is crowded. Sorry, but there is no place for anyone else. I can’t make an appointment with a doctor, I can’t arrange children in school, I can't get an apartment ”

Yes, and the tragedy in Orlando Brexit propagandists tried to tie to the problem of relations with the EU, proving that the membership in the Union supposedly increases the likelihood of such terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom. I especially remember the picture on the website of the organization Leave.eu: a non -existent “European” passport, on it the letters EU (European Union) and the signature: “The main weapon of terrorists”.

However, the EU supporters also often exaggerate the threats that Brexit carries with them - asserting, for example, that each family will not read several thousand pounds a year, that the mortgage rate will grow by 3-4 %, that the main capital of the middle class - in the case of leaving the EU, will take a lot of things by 18 %, which will have to be significantly reduced by small state pensions, etc. Where these figures are obtained from, it is not mentioned.

One way or another, the intensity of passions reached the heights unprecedented for Britain. The AD hominem attacks, personal insults were not uncommon. When the director of the financial committee of the House of Communities Andrew Tyri unexpectedly stated that economic considerations convinced him to oppose Brexit, one of the main leaders of the extreme right flank of the Tori party, Nadine Dorris, sent Twitter-invoice to the Chancellor of the Treasury George Osborne: “What did you promise Tyri for this? Knighthood? Place in the House of Lords? Lazagno in the kitchen numbers 11? * Or let him smell his dirty socks? "

The most difficult question now: does the possible victory of the outs of the beginning of the EU end of the EU? Or even, as the chairman of the European Council Donald Tusk warns, the end of “our political civilization”. Complex - because it may turn out to be true ...

Survey

As the Russian London intends to vote in the referendum - The New Times recognized his representatives:

Anna Matveeva, *Researcher King's College: *

I will vote for the way out. The European Union as an idea was very good, but its implementation went to a complete impasse. Firstly, due to the strengthening of bureaucratic institutions whose status is incomprehensible: they are not elected, they are not national governments. Secondly, when new members, especially Eastern Europe, came to the EU, they began to dictate their agenda, and they, as it turned out, have their own values-they are not necessarily those on which the European Union was originally based.

I think it is economically no special consequences, if Britain vote for leaving the EU, will not be, because the European Union does not know how to disconnect the country from itself, there was no such precedent. While the EU develops this practice, another five years will pass.

Konstantin Pinaev, author of the project “Around London at 40 steps” - non -standard excursions:

I will definitely vote in order to stay in the European Union. It seems to me that this is such an obvious choice for the immigrant, for a person who lives in an open world. The fact that Britain should stay in the EU is especially clear to me, as a former Soviet man, because we have everything collapsed, and we still see the consequences of the collapse. This is the same thing with the European Union. If Britain comes out, a chain reaction will go ...

I would like to be part of Europe also because the exit from the European Union will definitely strike the economy. I have not met a single economist who would say that it will be normal if we leave. The exit from the EU is the closure of half of the external markets, half of the industry will go downhill ... at the rate of pound (it has decreased in the last days. - NT ) it is already clear how all this can end ...

Alexander Schurov, adviser to the consulting company Global Counsil:

I had no doubt to vote for Britain to stay in the European Union.

I really like the European Union as a project. And what he was created for, and what he eventually spilled into was always the embodiment of the idea of ​​integration for me, which, perhaps, did not work out in other cases - for example, with our own country, with the Soviet Union.

Of those with whom I had to communicate - and these are people of different social layers and different ages - there are those who with both hands to stay in the EU, and there are those who are sure that the UK should leave the EU from the EU. In fact, there are quite a lot of those who - for the exit, especially those who have moved to Britain for a long time, and for whom European values ​​are not so important. It seems that people do not fully understand the consequences of a possible exit. There is no economic model that would allow you to calculate these consequences, so everyone is guided by some of their considerations-and this applies not only to the population, but also to politicians, in general.

Katerina Nikitina, editor -in -chief of the magazine “Russian Gap. Mind the Russian”:

This is the first time I will go to vote here, despite the fact that (British) I received a passport five years ago, and during this time the country had already passed the elections. I’ll go because this vote is very important. I follow polls, and I see that opinions were divided literally in half.

I will vote to stay in the EU-because, like everyone else, I’m afraid of some unexpected changes, I'm afraid for my friends who live and work in Britain with European passports. And I'm afraid, of course, that they will block oxygen to everyone who wants to come to Britain from the European Union.

But at the same time, of course, I understand people who are afraid that Britain may choke in the tributary of migrants. Experts say that in the coming years another 12 million people can come here. I just hope that smart people have enough, and they will be able to somehow cope with this. But it personally seems to me that now everything is fine in Britain, and there is no need to make some kind of shocks completely unnecessary.

* At the address of Dauning Street, 11, the treasury chancellor lives and works, in this case, George Osbourne.

Photo: AFP/East News