Konstantin Sonin: "A reason for optimism"

The Russian economist, a professor at the University of Chicago and HSE, evaluates the possible consequences of Britain from the EU in his “living magazine” , noting that this event will probably not have serious negative consequences for the country's economy, and can also benefit the entire European Union.

"As it turns out, yesterday the British voted for leaving the European Union. Somewhat unexpected, because surveys in recent days showed a small but stable majority to stay.

Whether this will have any serious economic consequences, it is clear. That is, it is clear that the pound will drop sharply in the coming hours (already, in fact, has fallen sharply) and that its course will be lower than what has been in recent years for some time. However, it is not clear what it itself is bad for the British economy and, most likely, even good - taking into account the slow growth of salaries and real incomes (UPD: with historically low unemployment), a lower pound can help (just like the Soros -Odroelat attack, which fell the overestimated pound in the 1990s, is the point with which the rapid growth of the 1990s began).

Finally, in the long run, Brexit may also not have noticeable negative consequences - in the modern world, the “General Status of Intercranial Relations” is not so important for business and development. Trade agreements and technical protocols, profitable for both parties, will simply remain in their places.

London, of course, will be more difficult to hold the status of the financial capital of Europe, but the main reason why Russians, for example, money and brains, are not “financial” in London. Former officials and disgraced businessmen run there due to the fact that there is no “no issue” (unlike no less attractive to life and cheaper Spain, for example).

The same officials and successful businessmen send children to study in England because of the advantages of the education system (and, I would say, the small domestic market - American universities and colleges are better than English, but the English have much earlier turned to face the world, providing a huge range of services - and, most importantly, levels - for children from abroad). So here nothing changes from the exit from the European Union.

Finally, there is also benefit for the European Union. Once again - hundreds of years ago, relations between countries were determined by the relations of kings and "large unions." Now importantly in relations - opportunities for trade, penetration of technology, freedom of migration - is determined not by one agreement and not membership in something, but by many small agreements and regulatory practices.

Since most of these minor agreements - and so mutually beneficial (or compromise), they will remain in their places and little will change much. (Actually, therefore, it became so easy to “think about the output” - and yesterday's referendum gives, obviously, new incentives for separatism - equally insignificant - Scotland). The main change in the European Union will be a relative increase in the role of Germany and France, which, in essence, facilitates the movement towards the "Unified European Country", accelerated after the 2008 crisis. And he will make the borders of the EU and the “Eurozone” closer, also facilitating this movement. ”