Britain took a chance and jumped

“Jumping into the Unknown”-“A Leap in the Dark”-so on the eve of the voting at the referendum British Prime Minister David Cameron described the possible exit of his country from the European Union. When you jump, you yourself do not know where in complete darkness, you can successfully land on a fertile plain, but you will find yourself in the desert, and even your legs, if you are not lucky, you can break it. Huge risk, which seems to be unusual for the British national character. But, contrary to predictions and polls, the opportunity became a reality: Britain jumped into the darkness, deciding to leave the European Union. She put her well -being on the ul, hoping to win in a gambling game with fate. Moreover, the circumstances of the landing will not be clarified soon. But, perhaps, the main result is a political and social earthquake, the split of the British society almost in half, and the deep crack passed through the establishment, political parties, social groups and family. The country inflicted a wound for itself, which will not heal soon.

There are no rational economic explanations for such a decision. The British industry is in a state of decline, agriculture survives only at the expense of the EU’s generous subsidies, the kingdom lags behind the countries of Northern Europe and Benilyux, from Germany, France, and Ireland on labor productivity. A relatively high standard of living is ensured by active trade, primarily with the EU, the powerful sector of services, the influx of cheap labor from abroad. The golden vein of Britain is London City, which serves as the main financial center of Europe. All international companies accredited there automatically received the so -called "passport rights" - the opportunity to sell their services throughout the EU without bureaucratic and customs barriers without bureaucratic and customs barriers. Now this privilege is at risk, not without reason the largest banks have warned that they could transfer their headquarters to the Continent countries in case of Brexit’s victory.

This is the victory of the extreme right minority among the British elite, who managed to rely on the majority in the basis of a social pyramid

It was truly a vote with a heart, not a head. On the surface is the dream of ephemeral "complete sovereignty" and independence, the return to "good old days", when the British empire flourished in the conditions of "brilliant isolation." But there is not the slightest doubt that the main, absolutely central motive that determined the outcome of the referendum was the fear of immigration, bloated by Brexit propagandists to almost absurd proportions. The coarse, primitive and often based on direct deception and manipulations, agitation appealed to the lowest feelings, xenophobia and racist prejudices. This is the victory of the extreme right minority among the British elite, who managed to lean on the majority at the base of the social pyramid - on poorly educated masses, on their grievances and frustration. The situation of these masses is really unenviable, and it was easiest to offer them as goats of the “damned foreigners” and the distant, incomprehensible Brussels bureaucracy. The intelligentsia lost, the blue collars think they won. But in their lives, positive changes will be unlikely to come from-where to come from: the amounts saved on membership fees in the EU (less than one percent of GDP) will not be enough to at least shorten holes in the system of national health, school education and housing construction. Yes, and it is unlikely that the referendum shifters, if they are supposed to come to power, intend to spend these funds on improving the position of the poorest segments of the population. In addition, the split in British society, divided into two almost equal hostile camps, is a bad economic sign, such societies cannot count on high growth rates. Deep schisms, socio-political tension foreshadow further decline.

When the masses realize that they are, to put it mildly, they were misleading, their reaction will be so sharp that the entire current political order may be at risk

Many educated British agree with the observer of the Times newspaper Rachel Sillyvester, who wrote: “Brexit agitators” plunged the country into hatred ... They packed the monster into the myth that the departure from the EU would solve all the problems of voters, from immigration to inequality, from the crisis of social services, to the innocent of the elites who were divorced from the people. "Brexit" cannot solve and does not solve anything.

Such a scenario seems plausible: when the masses are executed that they, to put it mildly, are misleading, their reaction will be so sharp that the entire political order may be at risk. In the next elections, rainbow prospects are opening for the extreme left demagogues and populists. However, the socialists closely communicating with working classes in the proletarian environment of other seeds-National Socialism. Not a referendum hazarded these seeds, but it feed them abundantly, and now they can begin to germinate quickly. The genie of English nationalism received a chance to break out of the bottle.

This nationalism is precisely English, not British. The leaders of Scotland, who voted for unity with the EU, protest against the "English solution imposed by the Scots." In Edinburgh, in connection with this, they already speak loudly, including at the official level, about the need to withdraw from the kingdom and hold the second referendum on Scottish independence. In Northern Ireland, the situation is much more complicated, but there the majority expressed themselves against Brexit. Both the economic and political problems of Olster can worsen sharply if border control and customs appear on the border with the Irish Republic. Party leader Shinn Feyn Jerry Adams has already stated that as a result of the referendum, the British government "lost the mandate" to represent the population of Northern Ireland. So it is quite possible that this is the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom. According to the former Prime Minister John Major, such an outcome of the referendum means the transformation of Great Britain into Little England.

It is not clear what to do the cosmopolitan London, also, of course, voted amicably in order to stay in the European Union. He from whom to separate from now and where to join, to Scotland, or what?

Meanwhile, the EU leaders are deadly afraid of the domino effect - the fact that the British example will be contagious, that the centrifugal forces will begin to destroy the European Union, that the populists will achieve the conduct of similar to British referenda. Just think: if Donald Trump wins in the USA in the next elections - by the way, the only first -plan Western politicians actively supporting Brexit, then our world can change very quickly beyond recognition.

However, this is already happening with Britain.

Andrey Ostalsky - London political commentator

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office