Through Timchenko to Putin

Alexander Gabuev-About the "friendly" rod of Russian-Chinese relations

The visit of Vladimir Putin to Beijing, held at the end of last week, ended with the signing of more than thirty bilateral agreements. Before Putin’s trip to the PRC, his assistant Yuri Ushakov announced the conclusion of about 50 transactions, but even then he warned that, most likely, not all of them would be able to coordinate all the details in time. So it happened.

In particular, an agreement was not signed on the construction of the Moscow -Kazan highway highway. One of the controversial issues remains state guarantees on the loan from Russia, which was originally counted on China Development Bank. However, in early June, the first Vice President of Russian Railways Alexander Misharin said that there would be no such guarantees. Instead, the RBC agency notes, the parties agreed on a budget subsidy, if the passenger traffic is less than the forecast and the project will not be self -smoking.

The Chinese official agency Sinhua pays special attention to political documents signed in Beijing. Among them are the statements “On strengthening global strategic stability”, “On coordinated promotion of the development of information and Internet space”, as well as the declaration “On improving the role of international law”. The message emphasizes that Vladimir Putin and Chinese PRC Xi Jinping are very common and they are connected by friendly relations.

Meeting Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Beijing June 25

At the same time, due to the fall of world energy prices, reducing the growth rate of the Chinese economy and the sharp devaluation of the Russian ruble, the prospects for the implementation of the Russian-Chinese gas agreement in the amount of $ 400 billion remain vaguely. It was concluded in 2014 during the visit of Vladimir Putin to Shanghai.

According to the expert of the Karnegi Foundation, Kitaist Alexander Gabuev , in Beijing they are still interested in maintaining warm relations with Moscow. In his recent article in the journal Foreign Policy, he notes that, understanding the construction of the current system of power in Russia, the Chinese act primarily through the close circle of the Russian president:

- The foundations for relations between Russia and China are three. First of all, this is complementarity in the economy. Russia in the sense of export remains a large raw material country - with oil, gas, agricultural products, metals and so on. China has a huge market for all this. And this creates the basis for mutual addiction. The second is that both countries are authoritarian. And many stimuli in relationships like democratic rhetoric, minority rights, and so on are simply absent as an agenda item. And the third. Since these are two authoritarian countries and both of them are members of the UN Security Council, they have a lot of similar interests in terms of promoting such an anti -liberal agenda, in establishing control on the Internet and so on. This is evident in all joint statements of the two leaders and in the recent joint statement that they signed in Beijing.

Fundamentals for relations between Russia and China three

As for the article in the Foreign Policy, the main idea is that in conditions when the Russian elite was very hoping that China would come and all the money, and this does not happen, disappointment was growing in Moscow. China sees and understands this very well. At the same time, Moscow cannot fill up with cheap loans simply because, firstly, there is no such amount of money, and secondly, Russian conditions interfere with profitable investing. Nevertheless, to preserve Russia in the orbit of its influence, to preserve the attention of President Putin and his conviction that China is a good and reliable partner, of course, Beijing is beneficial. And China found a way to do this - these are transactions with members of his inner circle, primarily with Timchenko Gennady. In conditions when practically no large projects are implemented due to low raw materials, due to sanctions, due to the inhibition of the Chinese economy, due to the anti-corruption campaign, Timchenko gets a deal that others can only dream of.

First of all, this is the sale of a share in Sibur last year. Sibur is a normal company, but it was bought by the largest Sinopec petrochemical corporation in the PRC, which until recently was in the epicenter of the anti -corruption campaign itself, which is very conservative now related to any investments, including minority packages in the company where one of the co -owners is under direct sanctions of the United States. Nevertheless, Sibur sold a package and received a very good price. The second is the "Yamal LNG". A huge project in the Arctic, with enormous capital needs, with completely incomprehensible prospects due to the current decline in oil prices. Nevertheless, firstly, Timchenko managed to sell there a share of the Chinese for very good money, and secondly, to attract almost $ 12 billion on incredibly favorable terms. From those banks that are also now in the process of anti -corruption cleaning.

Russia began to look much less wary of a more significant part of China in its economy

- From the outside it looks like a bribery of people from the nearest circle of Putin. And as a result, Russia concludes transactions that are disadvantageous to it?

- Russia does not particularly conclude transactions. Russia began to look much less wary of a more significant part of China in its economy. This is partly good and pragmatic. Before that, many prohibitions were completely irrational. For example, the Russian government was actively afraid to let the Chinese to master Siberia and the Far East, thinking that it was facing a demographic expansion. Although all numbers show that the Chinese are a maximum of 300 thousand people throughout Siberia and in the Far East. And now most of the people from there leaves back to China due to the effect of the ruble devaluation. True, Russia concludes some transactions that are hasty. This applies to a gas transaction or the construction of pipelines exclusively to China. But this is due to deeper causes. Unfortunately, Russia has no normal technologies to build LNG plants ( liquefied natural gas. - RS ). In this situation, the country, which comes and offers loans, offers its finished market, can dictate the conditions.

The Chinese well understand that Vladimir Putin is surrounded by a small number of people

As for the bribery, I would not say that this is a bribery. I would say that this is a preferential relationship and signs of attention. I think the Chinese well understand that Vladimir Putin is surrounded by a small number of people. He trusts his environment. This is a well -folded circle. In principle, the Russian president appreciates friendship and appreciates his friends. And in this regard, a good attitude of an external player to these friends proves that this is a good reliable partner with whom you can deal, despite temporary difficulties. And it seems to me that this is very important in contrast to relations with the United States. For them, if you, for example, are a friend of the Russian president, then after the annexation of Crimea you are included in the sanctions list, you will be disconnected by credit cards, etc. For China, if you are a friend of the Russian president, even in very difficult conditions you will find $ 12 billion on very good conditions for you. After that, the question is who for Russia the best partner, the USA or China, is decided by Putin by itself. It seems to me that the calculation of the Chinese is being built on this.

- You have already mentioned that China is dealing with Gennady Timchenko, a person against whom specific sanctions associated with the annexation of Crimea are directed. How wary of these things are now in China? How is this exception to the rules for China?

- In general, sanctions are very wary of sanctions. This is evident by the behavior of Chinese commercial banks that noticeably turned their activity in Russia. And it is clear that it has become more difficult to get loans than before the Crimea, before the sanctions. In Russia, China mainly works through “political” banks similar to the Russian “Vnesheconombank”, which are not related to the international financial system, do not have retail operations, do not have departments somewhere in the West. But Timchenko in this case is really an exception to the rules, because he has transactions very good, very profitable. This is partly due to the fact that he is the chairman of the Russian-Chinese business council. And during his historical visit to Shanghai in 2014, when they signed a transaction on the gas pipeline, Putin represented Timchenko by the Chinese elite as his person responsible for China. I think that the Chinese also did not forget this and understand that this is the person whose opinion Putin will ask about China anyway.

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Beijing June 25

- And against whom, so to speak, can China and Russia be friends now?

-I do not think that there is an interest in friends against someone. Of course, for Russia, anti -Americanism becomes an important part of the ideology of foreign policy. Many actions are aimed at weakening the United States or the fight against US pressure, which is perceived here very painfully. China, it seems to me, is going to integrate into the international system on its rules and taking into account what, as the Beijing expects, at least the comparative role and power of China will grow, and the role of the United States to fall. But many US actions in the Asia-Pacific region are worried about both Moscow and Beijing. For example, plans to place PRO systems in South Korea. According to both Russian and Chinese analysts, such systems create long -term conditions in order for the United States to influence strategic balance, limit the capabilities of China and Russia to use nuclear weapons.

And this, of course, causes severe irritation, discontent and the desire to resist this. The second is many aspects of global regulation, where the US position is much more open - take off the barriers, open the markets, etc. And Russia and China have much more protectionist, because they look at the freedom of the Internet, at the promotion of democracy as a geopolitical tool for the influence of the United States. They believe that the United States is an absolutely cynical power that uses a beautiful rhetoric to approve its interests, and intends to confront this together.