Dmitry Nekrasov: "The probability of winning the election I have 20 percent, the probability of sitting - from 20 to 90"

The opposition, a month ago, who left Russia to Lithuania, explains on Facebook , why refuses to participate in the Duma campaign. He does not intend to return to the country and completely turns political activity due to the pressure of the security forces.

"I collected some information. And I made the following decisions:

1. I do not plan to return to Russia for the next 1-2 years at least, and possibly longer.

2. As an obvious investigation from paragraph 1 - I turn the campaign to the State Duma.

3. I hope, forever, but (long life) at least for the period specified in clause 1, I stop socio-political activities.

Everyone evaluates his risks and is responsible for them. In my case, you also have to evaluate the risks of people around you: teams, relatives, partners. These risks are difficult to evaluate adequately. Objectively, they are probably low, but if they are suddenly realized, then this will be completely disproportionately set by my goals. Around me, it is mainly not "political", who have their own motivation to play these games. Around me, people who did not subscribe to this.

The two events that were not related to this power line finally determined my decision. The first is the development of the campaign itself. The chances of winning a single -mandate district of any oppositionist are initially small, but you can’t jump the abyss if you doubt the last step. If you play to win, it was necessary not to leave a month ago and generally not tell anyone about the pressure.

Glitting and resonance deprived me of a significant part of the management of the campaign and technologists (people can be understood), and this resulted in a loss of pace and time.
In addition, some external agreements sailed. In addition, this whole story in the district by most voters is perceived unequivocally (supporters of radical protest among real voters are much less than on Facebook). Well, much more.

The second is the arrest of the whites (this is not about the circumstances of the case, but about who conducted the detention and how they were submitted in the media). White for me has always been an example of how a completely liberal reasonable person is not from the St. Petersburg clan can take a worthy place in the system.

And for some time before his arrest, I talked with one smart person about my situation. He said: Well, even if you slip? This means that you have passed the system. It may not be forgiven. Do you think the mandate guarantees from something? After all, they can also then be revealed then, because The eyes of the corner.

According to the result, I have the next accounting department of continuing participation in the campaign: the probability of winning the elections is 20% (someone will say a lot, but some believe that more). The probability of sitting yourself or even worse - not yourself - 20% (someone will say a lot, but some estimate at 90%). The probability of spending another 1 million dollars is 100%.

In general, in life, an adventurer could play with such chances, if not for a consideration that even having won, you can soon sit down, and rather not yourself. After my conflict with the system became public, the chances of this have increased sharply.

What I definitely will not do is interact with various "emigrant" political structures. I have many relatives and friends in Russia, and I do not want to represent an operational interest for anyone anymore. I will close all political projects in Russia, including the Free Media Support Fund. (Maybe I need someone? I will give in good hands).

I apologize to the voters who managed to believe in me. Before the "Yabloko" and the team apologized separately. Russia is an extremely unpredictable country, and I was preparing for a chess party, and not for the round in boxing. "