On Wednesday, Vladimir Putin extended until December 2017 the embargo on the import of certain types of products from Western countries, introduced in the summer of 2014 in response to European and American sanctions against Russia. On the same day, having received a letter from his Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan, he informed the government of the decision to begin normalizing bilateral relations and instructed Dmitry Medvedev to “change the regulatory framework.” The key point in ending anti-Turkish sanctions is the restoration of charter flights to the largest resorts and sales of tour packages, and the lifting of the ban on the import of Turkish agricultural products.

The prime minister explained the extension of counter-sanctions for one and a half years (compared to the European six-month period) by pragmatic considerations, the peculiarities of agricultural production and the need to “create the most favorable and predictable conditions for our farmers” engaged in import substitution.

In the Turkish case, stable and predictable conditions appear to be less important. Companies and industries that were previously tasked with trying to compensate for the lack of Turkish products and services are ordered to urgently prepare for changing operating conditions: a possible recovery in tourist flows and renewed competition from cheap vegetables and fruits.

Different views on stability are also found on the issue of tourism security. Air traffic with Egypt was stopped after a terrorist attack on board a Russian plane, and the ban on tours to Turkey was accompanied by official rhetoric about the increased threat of terrorism. The decision to resume charters and organized tours to Turkey was made after the terrorist attack at Istanbul airport.

Of course, the subordinates of the president and prime minister are now pretending that everything is not as spontaneous as it seems. The Federal Tourism Agency called on Russians not to forget about the high level of terrorist threat when planning trips to Turkey. Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov urged not to rush into abolishing the visa regime for Turkish citizens. And Medvedev says that sanctions will be lifted in several stages.

Whether the Turkish embargo will be lifted, as Medvedev says, “without prejudice” to Russian producers and other counterparties who risk losing their market share as unexpectedly as they gained it, is a big question. Tour operators admit that domestic resorts are not able to provide services comparable to Turkish ones in terms of price-quality ratio. Not immediately, but people will begin to give up holidays in Crimea, Sochi and, for example, Bulgaria in favor of the usual Antalya or Bodrum. The state is unlikely to be able to fully compensate for the expenses of those who, relying on sanctions, developed domestic tourism, built greenhouses and planted orchards.

But maybe the whole point is that the successes of farmers do not depend on the embargo (but rather on state support), and the bans on tours are not actually related to security issues? And our leaders know this better than anyone.

Two different stabilities