"The enemy of my enemy is my enemy"

Erdogan no longer believe. Israeli society without enthusiasm took the proposal of Turkey to normalize relations

A few days ago, on the eve of the iconic telephone call of Recodogan, Vladimir Putin, Turkey announced its intention to normalize relations with Israel and put an end to the breakup and this state - which lasted six years, much longer than the confrontation of Ankara with Moscow. Relations between Turkey and Israel, once close allies, abruptly deteriorated in May 2010, after the Israeli Marine Patrol destroyed nine Turkish citizens on board the Mavi Marmara ship , trying to break through the Israeli blockade of the gas sector controlled by the Hamas group.

What caused the Turkish Isismist Erdogan, who had built the "neocotomanian" foreign policy for the last years, to suddenly suggest the reconciliation right now, at the same time as the same message from the Russian authorities, and how did Israeli public opinion perceived such a development? This is about this in an interview with Radio Liberty by Israeli political scientist Zeve Khanin , professor at the University of Bar Ilan in Jerusalem and the leading consultant of the Ministry of Absorption of Israel:

- First there was an application from Turkey to warming relations with Israel, and then an agreement with Moscow. About somewhere in late January-early February, we began to hear conversations from Moscow from the series "Israel remains almost the last hope for

Russia to make peace with Turkey. "Next, we hear how, following the visit of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Moscow, Vladimir Putin, answering the journalist's question" Will Russia will nervous Israeli-Turkish rapprochement? ", Suddenly, who suddenly did all, but not surprising those who heard what we said in February, the statement" we will welcome it, and the fewer the partners will have their problems with their partners. neighbors, all the better for bilateral relations. "After that, a statement by Netanyahu that the contract with Turkey is about to be signed, and then, as it were, an apology of Erdogan, which was brought by Putin, did not cause surprise.

There are only two versions that there is a chicken and that an egg. The first looks like this: the fact that the Israelis were going to agree with the Turks was distinguished by the Russians to meet Turkey and also agree to this warming. The second version: that there was a multilateral agreement initially. And during the visit of Netanyahu to Moscow, they spoke there a certain multi -way combination in which Ankara, Moscow, Jerusalem, and Athens, and Nicosia will participate.

Benjamin Netanyahu at a meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. June 7, 2016

- So why is Israel so necessary now?

- For three reasons. Firstly, Ankara today was in total isolation. The "zero conflict" with her neighbors turned into a conflict with all neighbors. Turkey has problems with Iran, Egypt, Saudis, Armenians, Kurds, Europeans and Moscow. The concept of "neocotomanism" completely failed. This was clear some time ago. But now an acute conflict has appeared with the EU, in connection with the refugee crisis, which ultimately led to the fact that Ankara needed to urgently establish relations with the European capitals. If earlier, Erdogan had the idea of restoring the “sphere of influence” of the Ottoman Empire was connected with the desire to please the Arabs, and it was necessary to quarrel with the Jews for this, now, in order to return and somehow establish relations with Europeans, you need to make peace with Jews. It is clear that he greatly overestimated, for example, the antisionicism of Europe, the influence of the ultra-stroke and Islamic lobby in the EU, not understanding that, with all the sharp conflicts between Europeans and Israeli, this is still a "quarrel within the family."

Ankara today was in total isolation

The second circumstance is due to the fact that if the conflict with Israel is deepened, then the Erdogan will ultimately be left one on one with the consequences of the Syrian crisis, mobilizing everyone against himself. The next step will be the recognition of the Kurdish independence of Israel, and then they will have nowhere to go - Europeans and Americans , that is, an anti -Turkish bloc will take shape, which will be formed along the Jerusalem - Nicosia - Athens axis, and perhaps Sofia and Bucharest will also be added there. If this whole company recognizes Kurdish independence, then for the Turks, accordingly, the best times will come.

Thirdly, let's see what the Turkish army turned into-after the purges of the generals, on the one hand, on the other hand, and on the other hand, after 5 years of lack of previously familiar Israeli technologies, components, spare parts, ammunition, etc. This is still numerically and efficiently one of the best armies of the Middle East and, perhaps, the whole world. But, on the other hand, this is an army that will not be able to conduct the victorious blitzkrieg anymore. In the case of, for example, direct involvement in the Syrian crisis, all that she can is to conduct protracted military operations. And this is ultimately, as we know by the example of the Afghan war, which the USSR waged, and the first and Second World Wars for Germany (you yourself can come up with a lot of associations) will mean the end of the regime. Therefore, today the Turks had to solve the problem as soon as possible.

Military parade in Ankara on Independence Day

-But once, Turkey really called Israel an almost strategic partner-friend in the Middle Eastern region ...

- Turkey called Israel a strategic partner, when the authorities in Ankara were not Islamists, but secular nationalists, the heirs of Kemal Ataturk. When in 2002 the Party of Justice and Development came to power in Turkey, which calls the brothers not Jews, but the Muslim Brothers, including their Khamas branch , it became clear that cooling, and then the breakdown of relations, was a matter of time. And then the Turks needed only a reason. The very concept of “neo-symbolism”, or “neocotomanism”, as we call it, as I already said, demanded a decrease in the level of cooperation with Israel or its complete folding in order to win glasses and authority in the Arab-Islamic world, in the context of the fact that the Turks are not allowed into Europe. Today, as we see, the situation is exactly the opposite. Ankara today just needs to turn around 180 degrees, but it was necessary to do it a year and two ago. Why is this exactly now? Because readiness was expressed in Israel and in Russia.

- And how did public opinion and political elites in Israel perceived such a development of events - with a grin, with satisfaction, with understanding?

- A public opinion survey, published the other day, showed that 3/4 of Israeli Jews - against, and more than half of the Israeli Arabs - for restoring relations with Turkey. And in the Israeli political establishment, the ratio is different: 70 percent - for, 30 percent - against. But this is exactly the way the military-political office voted. Of the 10 members of the office, 7 ministers were for 3 ministers, including the Minister of Defense and both ministers from the right religious party "Jewish House".

The gas found on the Israeli shelf requires a reliable and stable sales market

Arguments for "for": Israel cannot afford to maintain conflict relations from one of the important countries of the Middle East indefinitely. Plus, the gas found on the Israeli shelf requires a reliable and stable sales market. In the context of the conflict with Russia, from where Türkiye receives 60 percent of gas, it is ready to become a generous and stable buyer, unlike, for example, from the same Egypt or Jordan, which either acquire, or not. And there will be no need to build an entire infrastructure bypassing Turkey in order to export this gas to Europe. And so the Turks themselves will buy it and willingly become a hub for transportation further. But, in fact, the question arises - how will the Russians react to this, because it seems to be an anti -Russian step? When just between Israel and Moscow, it began to improve? And here it turns out that, it turns out, the Russians are ready to reconsider the context of relations and be part of this multi -way scheme, which, in general, has been implemented in recent days.

- And what are the arguments against Israel?

Erdogan needs warming with Israel, just to get out of the trap into which he drove himself

-What, firstly, Erdogan needs warming with Israel, just to get out of the trap into which he drove himself. And that as soon as he gets out of the trap, no moral holding factors in order not to spoil everything again and not start a new round of confrontation, if it seems profitable to him, he will not have. Therefore, Türkiye will not become a reliable partner. Secondly, even if Moscow does not object on this occasion, it is not very clear how this will affect other foreign policy directions. How will they react to Cairo, where are they silent so far? Considering that the new agreement includes the special role of Turkey in the supply of GAZ humanitarian goods, the Egyptian leadership, in theory, should perceive all this as an act that undermines Cairo's struggle with the terror infrastructure on the Sinai Peninsula, the resource center of which is the same gas sector. But, given that the Egyptian president of Abdul-Fatta al-Sisi is still silent, it means, perhaps, Egypt is somehow part of this agreement. And, finally, the main argument of those who are against is such a look: if Erdogan shouts with a scream and is ready to crawl on his knees, then why conclude an agreement on its terms?

The ship "Mavi Marmara", which has become a symbol of the rupture of the Turkish-Israeli partnership

But, in fact, this agreement with Ankara is concluded on Israeli conditions, since none of the three ultimatical requirements of Erdogan, only during which, according to his early statements, it was possible to restore relations with Israel, and was not fulfilled. There were three of these requirements: that Netanyahu should beg for forgiveness, pay compensation to the families of killed militants at Mavi Marmara and release the gas sector. Netanyahu, as it were, apologized - under the pressure of US President Barack Obama, although in fact he did not apologize, but expressed regret that "people died." Let's just say that the Russians also regret that not only 20-30 million citizens of the USSR died in the war, but also 9 million Germany citizens. “We regret that this took place. But we do not apologize for killing the Nazis,” the Russians say. The same story now. In former times, a few years ago, when these regrets were expressed, Erdogan said that this was clearly not enough. Today he decided that it was enough that "Israel apologized."

Further, $ 20 million to the families of the dead will not go as compensation, but as a kind of humanitarian gesture in favor of a certain fund that will be specially created in Turkey. By the way, of course, Erdogan, according to the critics of this agreement, can imagine everything as the fact that Israel pleaded guilty, because he pays compensation. But there is a main third requirement - gase -locking. Erdogan did not receive her! How outraged Hamas! "A knife in the back from the side of the Turkish ally." The goods that Türkiye will supply to the gas sector will not be unloaded not in gas, but in the Israeli city of Ashdod, where they will be inspected, all these medicines, children's toys, flour. So they freely enter the gas sector and so! So Turkish deliveries will not make any weather - but this is a kind of symbolic act that will allow Turkey to say that they are “main” in the case of improving the humanitarian situation in the gas sector and, thereby, that the sector is allegedly unlocked. We will hear a lot, a lot of PR about this!

In the Middle East, the war of image is an equally important thing than a real, hot war

In Israel, the people are outraged by this fact, rather, on the emotional level, on the principle: "Why extend the hand of the failed Islamist Erdogan, how did they relerate a hand, so to speak, completely discredited Yasir Arafata, without getting anything in return?" Supporters of the agreement claim that in return received a lot of things. From the point of view of the international community, the solution of the Gaza problem - there is, in the Turkish direction there was a reassurance, and the Israelis received a stable gas market and the channel of its transportation in Europe. It would seem, what else to wish? But in the Middle East, as you know, the war of image is an equally important thing than a real, hot war.

- The leadership of Turkey hates the regime of Bashar al -Assad in Syria, enjoying Iran. The Islamic State terrorist group prohibited in Russia is also an enemy of Ankara, and it can stand behind recent terrorist attacks in Istanbul. And Assad, and Iran, and the Islamic State simultaneously sworn enemies of Israel. Is it possible to expect in such a situation that in the nearest or in the distant future, Israeli and Turkish soldiers will fight side by side?

- The scheme that you presented was relevant for the twentieth century, when there was a political postulate "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." In the XXI century, as our Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu put it, "the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy." We have a certain system of unmarked triangles, when complex intersecting do not mean the need to conclude collective agreements. It was in the First World War there was an Entente against the quarter union. And everyone who fought with each other at the same time were allies of those who fought with the same enemies. To date, this does not mean anything absolutely. Pay attention to that Türkiye seems to be fighting with the Islamic State group, but at the same time it buys oil from it! But this does not interfere with ISIS, the main source of financing of which is the transportation of this very stolen oil through Turkey, to arrange terrorist attacks in Turkey, such a scale that we have just seen! In short, my answer to your question: "No, this is impossible."