Introduce the shield

At the summit in Wales in 2014, NATO took measures caused by a crisis that unfolded in Europe. At the summit, which opened today in Warsaw , strong security structures will be built for long -term confrontation with Moscow. Two years ago, NATO worked in an emergency mode. Now the Alliance is preparing for a long -term stress conflict. Two years ago, the Atlantic Union returned to its origins: the main purpose of the organization again became the protection of its participants. Now NATO is methodically taking the steps necessary to contain revenge moods in Russia.

The previous meeting of the heads of NATO members took place in Newport in September 2014. Just a few months before the summit, the conflict in eastern Ukraine broke out, Crimea was annexed. The aggressive position of Russia in relation to the West was then only formed. The term "hybrid war" was new and not entirely clear.

The tasks of the current summit are different. According to the official representatives of the alliance, the consequences of decisions made in the Polish capital will be felt for the coming decades. “We witnessed the whole sea of changes that occurred in the field of security, and in order to take proper measures, we will reorient the Western security system,” Ostomas President Hendrick Ilves said last spring. In addition, the summit was opened in an extremely emotionally saturated atmosphere caused by Brexit - the vote of Great Britain to withdraw from the European Union.

Undoubtedly, the dominant topic of the summit will be the restraint of Russia and the guarantee of the security of NATO members bordering Russia. “The world, the safety and stability of democracy in Europe have ceased to be given, and NATO leaders need to resist this harsh reality,” said James Jones in a recent report for Atlantic Council in NATO NATO NATO NATO NATO NATO NATO NATO NATO NATO. Two years ago, in Wales it was decided to create new NATO military bases in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania, as well as form the forces of a super -fast response that can come to the aid of NATO members in dangers within two days. It is expected that for further strengthening the eastern flanks in Warsaw it will be decided to place four combat battalions of 1000 soldiers in each in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The United States, Great Britain and Germany agreed to take on the command of three of these battalions. Whoever takes on the fourth command has not yet been determined, however, according to NATO representatives, Canada is seen by the most likely candidate.

The official "open door policy" to expand the alliance remains in force, but it is difficult to imagine how Georgia, Moldova or Ukraine will join NATO

The battalion led by the United States will probably be placed in Poland, most likely, in the immediate vicinity of the so -called Suvalka corridor , a hundred -kilometer section of the Polish and Lithuanian borders, clamped between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia. Military strategists are afraid that in the event of a conflict, Russia will capture this corridor, thus cutting the country of the Baltic country from the countries of the alliance. The battalion led by Germany, according to expectations, will be placed in Lithuania, while the battalion led by the UK will be deployed in Estonia, and the fourth in Latvia. In addition, Washington agreed to the placement of a heavy team of 3,500 fighters for cooperation with both the Baltic region and with Bulgaria and Romania, where the key military base for using the United States is now expanding as a training center.

In June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the Alliance intends to consider Romania's proposal to place a multinational brigade of 3000–5000 fighters on its territory, which will be coordinated by the exercises and will play a restraining role.
“We are not talking about military formations,” explains Mark Galeotti, senior researcher at the Czech Institute of International Relations in the Power Vertical Employee . “In the event of an apocalyptic war with Russia, a thousand soldiers here and a thousand will not be able to overcome the pressure, regardless of the level of their preparation and weapons. They are political markers. They say: if you go to this country, you will not be killed, you will not kill you. Only Estonians and Latvians, but also Americans and Germans. "This is very important."

What if the deterrence policy does not work? According to military analysts, the geography of Northern Europe determines the vulnerability of the Baltic states in the event of a Russian offensive, despite the significant presence of NATO ground forces. Based on the results of the military game , the American Research Institute Rand Corporation came to the conclusion: “To prevent the quick seizure of the Baltic countries,” NATO needs seven brigades, including three teams of heavy armored vehicles, “appropriate support from aviation and ground support, as well as willingness to enter the battle at the time of the start of hostilities.” But even this "is not enough to ensure constant protection of the region or to restore the territorial integrity of NATO members."
That is why, according to analysts, NATO is increasingly counting on partnership and allies with Finland and Sweden, which are not members of the alliance. “Without Finnish and Swedish assistance to NATO, it will be difficult to defend the Baltic countries from the decisive attack of Russia,” Edward Lucas recently wrote the author of New Cold War.

If Finland and Sweden take the side of NATO, the alignment of forces will change significantly, but not one of these historically neutral states is yet ready to join the alliance. However, support in this direction is growing, especially in Sweden. Both states this year initiated a study on joining NATO. Sweden and Finland undoubtedly come closer to NATO, this rapprochement will most likely become very obvious in Warsaw. In May 2016, the Swedish parliament ratified an agreement on cooperation with NATO, which opens the Alliance access to its territory for exercises, as well as in the event of war or other crisis. This summer, ministers of foreign affairs and defense of Sweden and Finland, along with their colleagues from 28 NATO members, took part in a summit in Brussels. These are the first meetings in a similar format. According to NATO official representatives, cooperation in the 28+2 format will continue in the future.

The annexation of Crimea Russia and the further militarization of the peninsula force NATO to pay attention to the south, especially to the Black Sea, which, in the words of Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, risks turning into the Russian Lake. "The invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, Russian President Vladimir Putin changed the safety situation around the Black Sea," recently wrote a senior researcher at the American foreign policy of Stephen Blanc. As a rebuff, Romania intends to offer in Warsaw the creation of a constant multinational sea patrol on the Black Sea. In June, speaking at a press conference, Stoltenberg said that this issue will be considered at the summit in connection with the "significant growth of the Russian military presence in the Crimea."

However, the intention to create the Black Sea Fleet NATO is disagreement. Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov unequivocally made it clear that his country is against such an initiative and refuses to take part in it. Borisov said that such actions "turn the Black Sea into a military territory" and that he "prefers cruise yachts to warships." The disagreement of Bulgaria will most likely make this problem one of the most ardently discussed in Warsaw.

Continuing the NATO begun in Wales, according to representatives of the alliance, intends to pay special attention to the battles in cyberspace. “At our previous summit, we unequivocally stated that cyber protection is one of the main tasks of NATO collective security, that international law applies to cyberspace,” said a high -ranking NATO official. “In Warsaw, we will go further and recognize the cyberspace as the same workspace as air, sea and earth.” This classification is expected to give NATO the opportunity to use its resources more effectively. Recently, a French television company, a German steel manufacturer, a Polish stock exchange, the White House, the US Department of State, the US State Department and The New York Times have been subjected to Russian cyberatams.

In addition, the official approval of a comprehensive package of assistance to Ukraine, agreed in June, is expected in Warsaw.
However, in the foreseeable future, the expansion of the block is not expected. The exception is Montenegro, which signed the protocol in May on the entry into NATO. Montenegro will take part in the Warsaw summit as an observer. It is expected that the country will join the alliance next year.

The “official“ open door policy ”to expand the alliance remains in force, but it is difficult to imagine how Georgia, Moldova or Ukraine will join NATO,” wrote John McColus recently the former deputy of the Supreme Commander -in -Chief of NATO in Europe.

Brian Witmore - American journalist, observer radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe