Movement by condescending

Among the versions explaining the reasons for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is also this: this is all because of Sochi. Say, Vladimir Vladimirovich was so inspired by our Olympic victories that he immediately decided to fix them in big politics. Sports triumph affected him as a doping. And if we had smaller medals, then Crimea would have remained Ukrainian, and thousands of dead in the Donbass would be alive, and hundreds of thousands of refugees would not have left their homes.

Within the framework of this version, even more radical thoughts are also expressed. If Russia would not become the mistress of the Winter Olympics in 2014, the Kremlin’s policy would be different. When Putin would not pull out a happy ticket in Guatemala, then five years later he would not have gone for a third term, eliminating the class and freedom that disagree and freedom as a conscious need. Or when after the war in Georgia Russia was punished with a boycott, like Brezhnev after an invasion of Afghanistan, the world would not have reached the Cold War today. On the contrary, the new Russian authorities, obeying the cyclic course of their history, would now think about perestroika and publicity again. The same Medvedev, punished by a boycott, could have thought and not without reason to blame Putin, speaking at the April plenum of "United Russia". What does not happen in the world, really.

All this, of course, is purely speculative constructions. Especially the second version, shocking with its undisguised optimism. It was said about Russia by her former ideologist: the besieged fortress. It was done so many things to surround it with enemies and close the circle. Yes, and the national leader, I remember, shared his deeply personal memories of a rat driven into a corner. He shuddered and warned.

That is why in the absolute effectiveness of a technique based on extreme stiffness, we will allow ourselves to doubt. Here the problem is also that the most controlled in the world is the people who, together with their leaders, feels lined with all sides. Type North Korean. And perestroika in our country is much less common than long cold wars in the ring of enemies.

Therefore, the first version looks more realistic. True, history does not know the subjunctive mood and nothing can be affirmed with confidence, but there are indirect evidence. Putin Azarten. Putin loves sport. Putin is really inspired by the victories of Russian athletes, and the defeats are depressed and even plunged into melancholy.

So, it is noted that after the inglorious performance of the Russian football team in France, he somehow, or something, softened his soul and even commented on the doping scandal rather peacefully. As if partly pleading guilty, removing the switchmen and worrying about the consequences. There was also the impression that he asked not to drive him into a corner, because he does not want to show his teeth now and did not want to inspire. And he does not intend to fight after such football. Although, of course, ready for a fight, if they drive, get and force.

In this sense, the half -hearted decision of the IOC adopted in relation to the Russian Olympic team seems wise. OKR expressed distrust, Russian functionaries, starting with Mutko, are denied the entrance, but the athletes are partially separated from them. Athletes will be disqualified, but the whole team will not be removed. "Collective wine" will not be found, but international federations will be dealt with with each applicant after an additional audit. In other words, the authorities and the most sprinkled doping consumers were punished in full, but no sports fans were left without athletes who can be rooted for.

The immaculate was separated from scammers, clean from unclean. The messengers of the world were released from the besieged fortress. The people were not allowed to rally around the humiliated leaders. However, the victory in the overall standings, as in Sochi, according to the results of Chekist manipulations with salted urine, do not have to dream. Therefore, it is unlikely that Vladimir Vladimirovich after the Olympics in Rio will want to free someone, falling to the shrines.

He was not driven into a corner, but only put him. This is also a shame, but it does not inspire and does not inspire on exploits. Rather, he forces himself to humility and patient expectation of his hour.

So Mutko, whom Putin would probably have had to be driven out of his post if the Russian team had been deprived of their admission in full force, rejoices and calls the IOC decision “balanced, objective” and even, imagine, “adopted in the interests of world sports and unity of the Olympic family”. We adds Vitaly Leontyevich, the IOC are grateful for such a solution, and if you, after reading these words, do not get out of excess feelings, then you have a stone instead of a heart. That is, it is clear that he was told in the Kremlin to thank and bow, if not all Russian athletes would be punished, and he is in a disciplined jealousy, but how not to rejoice with him?

The ring of enemies opened for him, rejected and excommunicated from foreign trips, but time will pass - and it will probably be let out somewhere again. If only, as they say, there was no war, but let it be mutko. The price is small, we are tolerant.

The only thing that confuses is the speculation of our conclusions marked above. It seems that everything converges, partial isolation and a policy of restraining in a dialogue with Putin seems to be the best tool, but suddenly it will not work? Then the methodology will have to be changed, and there are no guarantees that the path, measured until the end of its deadlines, humanity will pass without loss.

But this plot is really unpredictable, unsportsmaning and depressive. Being from the last forces by optimists, we will only perceive only good news associated with fights on sports arenas, an honest game and a beautiful victory. We switch to the Olympics.