02 August 2016, 00:41 / Politics

Two months before the elections, the LDPR overtook the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in ratings - Levada Center

But the start of an active campaign on the ground can change the situation Elena Mukhametshina

Two months before the election of the new State Duma, the LDPR overtook the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in ratings, Levada Center found out / M. Stulov / Vedomosti

The electoral ratings of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party were equal in July, a Levada Center survey showed: in the State Duma elections, 10% of all respondents are ready to support them and 15% of those who intend to come to the polling stations and have decided on their choice. Back in May, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation was second with a noticeable margin - 21% versus 14% (of those who had decided). United Russia's rating over the same two months increased from 53 to 57%, but in January it was much higher (65%). Russians are not prevented from supporting the party in power even by the fact that, in their opinion, it mainly expresses the interests of oligarchs, security officials and officials. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has added to the traditional image of a fighter for the rights of the poor the role of a defender of the intelligentsia, but the LDPR, according to 19% of respondents, expresses the interests of “everyone without exception” (see chart).

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation received additional votes when the perception of the economic situation worsened. In the summer, anxiety began to subside and the demand for communists as defenders of material interests fell. The Liberal Democratic Party began the election campaign long before its official start, explains Deputy Director of the Levada Center Alexey Grazhdankin. United Russia, according to him, grew insignificantly, and compared to the beginning of the year they rather lost, although now their positions are being restored. As for the perception of parties, United Russia has the most clear image, there is an understanding of the LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, but about Parnas and Yabloko the ideas are vague, since their activities are little known, says the sociologist: “People understand that they are on the periphery interests of United Russia; there is no particular hope for other parties either. But the party in power is at least somehow involved in the distribution of resources, and one can expect some benefit from it in material terms.” Well, the increase in the number of those who believe that parties represent the interests of everyone suggests that they are becoming indistinguishable from each other, Grazhdankin emphasizes. True, current attitudes are related to those ideas about parties that have been formed over the last decade, so an agitation campaign can change the current situation.

Political scientist Alexander Pozhalov was surprised by the result of Parnas, which overtook Yabloko. But there is logic in equalizing the ratings of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, the expert believes: “The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has a disciplined electorate, and with a low turnout their results are higher. But the increase in turnout helped the LDPR to catch up with the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, despite the fact that the LDPR is one of the main parties of the second choice.” The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has not yet been able to mobilize a new electorate, and the leader of the LDPR, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, has become ahead of Gennady Zyuganov in his personal rating, since he is more ready for a public campaign, because “the electorate will focus on both the brand and the party leaders,” Pozhalov emphasizes. The growth of United Russia's rating was also influenced by an increase in turnout, as well as an increase in approval of the activities of the government and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

Much depends on the mobilization of the electorate, agrees political scientist Alexander Kynev: “What people say does not mean that they will come to the polls. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation has better mobilization. But there is almost no propaganda campaign on the ground. Only the old system parties are doing something - the Communists and Socialist Revolutionaries publish newspapers, the LDPR is present in visual campaigning. In such conditions, they choose those they know. Perhaps the rest are planning to catch up in the last month, and if they start an active campaign, the percentage of the old parties will decrease.”