Leonid Volkov: "Strategic compromise"

“The moment that was supposed to come - that every aging dictator in any country is faced with anyone. The years do not spare anyone: those with whom they started in the judo section, the cooperative“ Lake ”and the KGB school, are becoming older and can no longer fulfill the basic functions - Yakunin, Ivanov, Murov ... nothing personal, just age -related changes,” writes politicians on his page in his page in his page in his page in his page. Facebook , commenting on the last personnel permutations of high -ranking officials.

“We have to gradually start changing these super -layered people to others, younger ones - because otherwise the railways simply will not carry goods, and the presidential administration - administer.

But the young are different from the elderly: they have their own future and they should somehow plan this future. The 40-year-old top manager, no matter how loyal, should think about what will become with him after the 65-year-old autocrat; For example, to spend a long life in prison, for example, is clearly not included in his plans, and he must somehow coordinate his long-term life strategy with this. ”

“And this is very dangerous for the leader. Judging by what he does, he understands this danger very well - and, appointing 40 -year -olds, makes a choice in favor of guards and umbrella holders, as loyal and minimally prone to reflection. The hope that they will not think about“ life after Putin ”, or at least will not think too much.

But this is only a strategic compromise. One way or another, these people - with all their loyalty, are still much younger (which means they cannot be trusted as they trusted his colleagues and drinking companions), and there are no good administrators for loyalty with a decrease in efficiency (nevertheless, on average, good administrators cannot be obtained, although, of course, there are exceptions). This compromise can delay the development of events in their inexorable historical logic, but cannot cancel it. ”