HSE experts: Russian economy "got stuck at the bottom"

Economic activity in Russia for July 2016 has not changed, remaining near the lowest levels from the beginning of the crisis. This is stated in the periodic review of the Development Center "Higher School of Economics" "Comments on the state and business" for August 17-24, Interfax reports .

"July statistics brought conflicting news, from which we conclude that the Russian economy has so far stuck at the bottom. It previously indicated the growth of GDP in the second quarter by 0.1 percent. Despite the widespread opinion that already at the end of this year the economy will begin the transition to the restoration growth, which will only accelerate in the coming years, we are more likely to continue the scenario of the continuation of the continuation of the continuation of the continuation Stagnation/recession until the end of the budget consolidation period, ”the Higher School experts say.

Most of the sectors showed growth, but manufacturing production fell greatly. "Two years, which have passed since the beginning of a decrease in oil prices and the introduction of sanctions and counter -sanctions, showed that the industry vector of the Russian economy is slightly changing even under the influence of extreme shocks," the report says.

The production of industry, the most reliable, according to experts, the economy indicator, was reduced in July in the same period last year by 0.3 percent. This happened for the first time in four months. In industry, and therefore, in general, in the economy, there is no "clear signal" about improving the conjuncture, is indicated in the review.

In August 1, the HSE experts published on August 1 noted that in the first six months of 2016, the Russian economy survived a recession, falling below the bottom . According to analysts, the process of compression of the economy took place with a wide front, affecting all sectors, with the exception of wholesale trade, as a result of which the economy not only broke the previously reached the bottom, but also fell even lower.

“Only the first, the most acute phase of the economy’s adaptation to the“ new normality ”ended, the economy began to decline again, breaking through the bottom. Moreover, the GDP, which characterizes the release of the entire economy as a whole, broke the bottom already in the first quarter of 2016, and in the II quarter, according to our estimates, it turned out to be 1.4 percent below the bottom and 5.5 percent lower than the average level of 2014,” the report says.

"In these conditions, we do not expect the resumption of sustainable economic growth in the near future," the report emphasizes.

In the June report, HSE experts noted that the recession in the Russian economy is deepening : for April and May, the Russian economy clenched 2.5 percent, as a result, becoming less than in May 2015, which was still considered the “bottom of the current crisis”.

"The rebound from the bottom, observed in the second half of 2015, was completely played out: since the beginning of this year, a negative trend is increasingly tracing that the economy continues to delve into the recession," the report said.