Anton Bykov: Operation "successor" marked "urgently"

Anton Bykov President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov

Last night, the Ferghana agency issued a message marked “Urgently”, which spoke about the death of the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov. The sources of the agency claim that Karimov’s heart stopped on the afternoon of August 27. Official information about health problems in the 78-year-old President of Uzbekistan appeared only on Monday, but that Karimov was hospitalized with a stroke, his youngest daughter wrote another day later. There is still no exact information about the state of health of Karimov, but already the fact that his illness was reported on central television - an unprecedented event. For 25 years of Karimov’s reign, no one knew his history of disease. The authorities of Uzbekistan still refute information about the death of the president. Experts believe that upstairs they simply have not yet decided who would take his place.

“On the morning of August 27, 2016, Islam Karimov suffered a stroke. He died on August 29, 2016 at 15:35, ”said Ferghana, published on Monday evening. Tashkent has not yet made any official messages on this occasion. A source in the apparatus of the President of Uzbekistan told RIA Novosti that Karimov’s condition was stable. By the Kremlin, by the evening of Monday, they also did not have information about the death of the President of Uzbekistan. At the Russian Embassy, ​​Tashkent " Interfax " could neither confirm nor refute the information about the death of Karimov.

Screen from the website of the Agency "Ferghana"

On August 28, the Government of Uzbekistan reported that Islam Karimov is under stationary treatment. “According to experts, a complete medical examination and subsequent treatment will require a certain time,” the press release of the Cabinet of Ministers said. Only on Monday morning, the youngest daughter of the head of state Lola Karimova wrote on her Facebook page that the President of Uzbekistan was really hospitalized after hemorrhage in the brain and is in intensive care, but his condition is evaluated as stable.

The whole seriousness of the situation is confirmed by the fact that over the 25 years that Islam Karimov has been in power in Uzbekistan, on television was first announced about his state of health. Rumors about serious health problems in 78-year-old Karimov appeared a long time ago, but they were never officially commented on, although the opposition “folk movement of Uzbekistan” reported a heart attack in 2013 and a short coma of the president in 2015.

The editor -in -chief of the Ferghana agency Daniil Kislov insists that information about the death of Islam Karimov is absolutely reliable. In a conversation with the National News Service and Life , he assured that the agency works with many sources that can be trusted, including in the government and state bodies of Uzbekistan.

“We have many sources. We spent a day to confirm the information that Karimov suffered a stroke on the 27th morning. And we confirmed it, and if you remember, we gave this news one hour before we noticed this officially, ”Kislov said .

The journalist is confident that the presidential apparatus is drawn with an official statement about Karimov’s death, since at the top they are now determining who should stand at the head of state. “These are examples of exactly how authoritarian isolated states behave. They will only be announced after the wolves under the carpet, that is, people from the elite and the immediate environment of Islam Abduganievich, will decide and divide the authorities among themselves, ”added the chief editor of“ Ferghana ”.

Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan / Pixabay.com

The political scientist Gleb Pavlovsky, the editor-in-chief of the Internet magazine “Gifter”, shall be held by a similar opinion. “Karimov will not be able to die until all his successors are eliminated-except the only one,” hewrote on his Facebook page, explaining his thought with a reference to the news of the arrest of the Deputy Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Rustam Azimov, which was called the possible successors of Karimov.

Arkady Dubnov, an expert on Central Asian countries, a day earlier, even before the appearance of Karimov’s death reports, thinking in his blog that the Karimov era in Uzbekistan is ending, in an interview with the Voice of America said : “My sources say that Karimov died. In any case, hemorrhage in the brain at 78 is the end of it as a president. ”

The permanent president of Uzbekistan never called his successor. According to the Constitution of the country, in case of early resignation of the president, power is transferred to the chairman of the upper house of parliament (Senate), after which new presidential elections should be held within three months. The post of chairman of the Uzbek Senate is held by Nigamalla Yuldashev, but experts agree that this is only a technical figure, no one considers him as a new leader of Uzbekistan.

Dubnov believes that there are two real applicants for the successors of Karimov. The first is 59-year-old Prime Minister Shavkat Mirzyaev. He has been heading the government since 2003 and enjoys the support of the head of the national security service Rustam Inoyatov. It is believed that he, firstly, corresponds to the interests of the Karimov family, and secondly, is the most acceptable candidate for Moscow, Dubnov notes.

The second applicant is Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov, who oversees the financial and economic block. Ferghana writes that Azimov is one of the most commonly mentioned people in the list of probable successors of Karimov. According to Dubnov, the Deputy Prime Minister is called a pro-Western politician, although it is not known about really significant facts confirming such a reputation.

Until recently, it was believed that the place of Islam Karimov could take his eldest daughter Gulnara. For some time she was the main socialite of Uzbekistan and was incredible popular. Before starting politics, she tried herself in a variety of role: pop star, designer, entrepreneur, philanthropist, diplomat. However, in 2013, a crisis began in her business empire, charitable foundations and television channels were closed. A quarrel with his father was decisive for Karimova. In 2014, the prosecutor's office of Uzbekistan, most likely with the permission of Islam Karimov, began an investigation into the case of Gulnara Karimova in corruption schemes in Sweden. According to the latest data, Karimova is still under house arrest. There were no details about her person for about six months.

Journalist Danila Halperovich suggested that in general, the situation in Uzbekistan, even in case of official confirmation of reports of the death of the head of state, will change slightly. He is sure that the head of the National Security Safety Service of Uzbekistan Rustam Inoyatov will control it. “There will be nothing, their chief Chekist will now make everything there. Although it will be ridiculous if Karimov’s daughters lead the next color revolution - they do not like Inoyatov. We will give her the name "cotton", - writes Halperovich.

At the same time, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Communication Leadership and Policy of the University of Southern California Vasily Gatov believes that the daughters of Karimov may threaten danger if foreigners come to power. According to Galperovich, such a development of events is unlikely, since the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Uzbekistan prefers not to stand in power himself, but to “pull the threads”. “There are two obvious applicants-Mirziyev and Azimov, and he will either agree with one of them about the Union and support, or will put forward someone his own, but they will not touch his daughters, I think,” he concluded .

Vasily Kashin, an expert at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, senior researcher at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expressed doubts that the situation in Uzbekistan is the same as her emergency media reports. “The speed at which fake news began to appear about Uzbekistan, of course, inspires. Both Karimov died, and the wave of arrests is going on, and look at the beginning of the revolution. Apparently, someone wants to make a transitional period incendiary and interesting, ”he said.

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