Uzbekistan: after Bai

The era of Islam Karimov is completed. Who will inherit the Uzbek throne and whether the power system will change in the country - the New Times sorted out

The first September September at the Samarkand cemetery, which adjoins the famous architectural and historical monument of Shah Zinda, was lively. At first, a string of trucks loaded with expensive imported brick and marble proceeded here, then dozens of workers began to level, and simultaneously “improve” a solid piece of the territory. Samarkand is the hometown of Islam Karimov, which is permanently - and solely - ruled Uzbekistan for 25 years, from the moment of the collapse of the USSR. Two of his brothers and mother rest in Zinda shahs. On the same day, September 1, the rumor instantly spread through Samarkand: “He dies or already died ...“ They ”, those around him, are urgently preparing for the funeral, will build temporary mausoleums. Prime Minister Mirziyev personally came here - once he came, then he will head the commission for the funeral, and since he will head the commission, it means that it will be new to Yurtbashi (head of state . - NT). ”

On the same day, September 1, the British newspaper The Guardian quoted the great American of the XVIII century Benjamin Franklin: “There is no confidence in the world with confidence, except for death and taxes.” But the 32-million Uzbekistan of the 78-year-old Islam Karimov, the most densely populated country in Central Asia, did not live according to the Rules of Franklin. He lived according to the classical rules of dictatorial regimes: the leader is not responsible to his subjects for anything, including his own death. For subjects, she is the same secret as his life. By the time, when the trucks were unloaded from the trucks, presumably, for the mausoleum of Karimov, served for five days already knew that the leader was seriously ill, even more - incompatible - the massive in the brain. This was the first official message about the leader’s illness for all 25 years of his reign. Before that, the leader was always officially healthy. And if so, the subjects immediately concluded, using the method of deduction, - in fact, everything is much worse. And the leader, as someone here “throws us up”, maybe the truth died three days ago, on August 29.

On September 2, the Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan notified citizens of the republic of a sharp deterioration - to the “critical” - the state of health of Islam Karimov; Messages appeared on the news feeds (later, though officially refuted) about the intention of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, the only chapters of neighboring states with whom Karimov had trusting relations, to visit Uzbekistan on September 3 - given that Nazarbayev was in China, the reason was to be completely emergency. The BBC said that Samarkand Airport will be closed for ordinary flights all day, and Reuters even simultaneously explained why-because of Karimov’s funeral.

In the evening of the 2nd, the fact of death was officially confirmed ...

When a hemorrhage in the brain happened, the "large family" was clearly confused - the instructions from the leader, how to be with his health state, was not received

"Big Family"

“Died or alive” - fortune -telling for ordinary mortals. Islam Karimov proceeded from the fact that he was eternal, although he allowed him to record in the Constitution: in the event of an early termination of powers of the president, the entire fullness of administrative power goes to the chairman of the Senate, the upper house of the parliament. By the way, the head of this Senate's name is Nigmatilla Yuldashev. Does this name say something? So, the official, the pieces of paper are sorting out somewhere there ... Karimov had his own ideas about the vertical of the authorities, which he built hard and consistently, by the method of burned out land: nearby-the most loyal and devoted: the head of the cabinet, the head of the security service, the first deputy prime minister, responsible for internal financial flows, two assistants-assistants (the eldest, Gulnar, he said, they say, they say recently forgiven after Serious disagreement: someone helpfully reported to his father, as if the daughter was seriously marking the presidential chair)-and yes, his wife-tower, Tatyana Akbarovna, to whose advice he listened every year more and more. This is the so -called big family. Outside of her - officials are not so coeled, but equally loyal. All the rest - there are no other things, but those are far away.

But when the hemorrhage in the brain happened, the “large family” was clearly confused - the instructions from the leader, how to be with his state of health, did not receive who to transfer power - too. “The Karimov still had two ways to realize the continuity of the authorities,” emphasizes the Uzbek political scientist, Kamoliddin Rabbimov. -The first, so-called evolutionary-controlled, when he would transfer the supreme power to his successor under personal control. The second-conditionally can be called "risky-uncertain": Karimov is in the supreme power until the last physical resources. "

Islamo-Bobo, or grandfather Islam, as Karimov is called in Uzbekistan, “came” to the finish line in the second way. Who will accept the baton?

Favorite

The struggle for power in Uzbekistan historically was of clan in nature. Large and rich Khorezm, Ferghana, Tashkent, Samarkand and Bukhara, slightly different from each other with dialect, customs and everyday life, have always competed with each other for leadership in the region. After the Bolsheviks united these areas into a single country, the struggle of immigrants continued, but already for bureaucratic seats. Over 25 years of Karimov rule, local competition has acquired clearly formed contours. As a result, the elites of the regions entered into an unspoken agreement on the spheres of influence-this is how coalitions arose in the form of Ferghan-Tashkent and Samarkand-Bukhara-Dzhazak clans. One of the most powerful representatives of the latter is 59-year-old Shavkat Mirziyev, who heads the Cabinet of Ministers since 2003, a small man, but with exorbitant ambitions, grip, hard and cruel. Karimov appreciated him for his ability to achieve a result in any way. What are its “cotton campaigns” when the cotton plan was carried out even in the most lean years, and people of various specialties were driven to the cotton fields by ordering, not only from the public sector, although the economy in Uzbekistan is still for the most part planned in nature. Hokims (chapters) of regions and regions, ordinary farmers and agricultural producers for their eyes call Mirziyev a “tyrant”.

Another detail: Mirziyev is a distant relative of one of the richest billionaires of Russia, the ethnic Uzbek Alisher Usmanov. By the way, it is this fact that many observers are given to the proof of the supposedly “pro -Russian” orientation of the Uzbek prime minister, as well as the fact that it is he who will inherit the Uzbek throne. Experts unanimously claim: Mirziyev is quite satisfied with Moscow as a new head of state for the coming years. But not everything is so simple.

As one of the former representatives of the Uzbek power structures explained in a private conversation, the claims of Mirziyev to the throne may well be supported by the Uzbek Ministry of Internal Affairs, which was under the full control of the National Security Service (SNB), at the head of which another proxy of Karimov, Rustam Inoyatov, is already 21 years old. The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is his man. And although the 72-year-old Inoyatov himself, suffering from diabetes, according to many analysts, is quite satisfied with his current position, it is not a fact that he voluntarily agrees to share part of his powers and privileges.

Competitor

The main alternative to Mirziyev is considered to be the first vice
Premiere and Minister of Finance Rustam Azimov, representative of the Tashkent clan. Azimov, who grew up in an intelligent professorship, made his first money back in the early 1990s on the basis of one of the commercial banks. Now, they say, he controls the assets equivalent to the budget of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. A graduate of Tashkent State University and the owner of the degree of Master Oxford, Deputy Prime Minister Azimov is considered, unlike Mirziyev, a pro-Western politician. At the same time, the financier enjoys influence in power structures, is personally friends with foreigner. That is why, when on August 29, following the “lightning” about Karimov’s death, there was a report that the 57-year-old Azimov, who managed to find the key to Karimov’s heart back in the late 1990s, was placed under house arrest, the knowledgeable people in Tashkent only laughed: “Who will decide if there is no instructions for the very!”

Prime Minister Mirziyev is a distant relative of the richest Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov

What to wait

Islam Karimov rebelled for so long a model of irremovable power in Uzbekistan that some other, and maybe for a very long time it will work by inertia-nuker will continue to command and divide profits, people will be silent. But it can happen otherwise: nukers in the absence of the Supreme Lord will not agree, do not share the prey and begin interdepa -tribal enmity, and then blood will almost certainly spill. The method of scorched land is a birthmark of dictatorship and autocracy. What Uzbekistan is experiencing today is an almost inevitable prospect for Russia (Putin, like Karimov, is also two daughters), for Kazakhstan, and for Belarus, where the president was ahead of time, he took up the “preparation” of his son ahead of time. Only after all, Karimov seemed to cook. And it turned out like ...

Certificate

The first news that Islam Karimov died went around the world on August 29 with the filing of the Ferghana news agency. How about everything
The Ferghana herself learned - The New Times asked her chief editor Daniil Kislov:

On the 27th morning, we learned that on the eve of Karimov, at some family celebration, it became bad, on the 28th all day we checked information from different sources, when there were three of them-they gave news.

So when, after all, according to your data, Karimov died?

August 29, between 15 and 16 hours in Tashkent time.

Are you talking about "family celebration"? There was an official message-about a banquet in honor of the Olympic team of the country, and not the 26th, but the 27th.

No, according to our data, the 26th, and most likely it was about the birthday of his wife, Tatyana Akbarovna. True, we still could not establish the exact date of her birthday.

Why?

And because it is also a secret for Uzbek citizens. Uzbek power is one of the most closed in the world. There is no such information about which one could say a priori, this is one hundred percent truth. No less: we decided, it is better to give news than not to give.

What could have happened between August 29 and September 2, when the death was officially reported?

Karimov could be on artificial support for life, while his environment decided how, and most importantly, when to give news to the people. The dictatorships and autocraces think of themselves almighty, but at the same time they do not know how to transfer power, and fall into a stupor. Brezhnev died on November 7, and everyone found out about this only on the 11th. Heydar Aliyev generally lay in a coma for more than a month, while his son “resolved the issue” with the victory in the elections, while no one still knows whether the dad was in the coma in fact.

Uzbekistan is the Soviet Union today. The most important information is read from the elements of the bureaucratic ritual.

And what did you manage to "count"?

First of all, the fact that the number one figure becomes Prime Minister Mirziyev. A message about the leader’s illness came out of the subsoil of the Cabinet of Ministers, and not the presidential administration, as you could expect. On the same day, Mirziyev laid a wreath to the monument to the heroes of Uzbekistan in the framework of celebrations in honor of the 25th anniversary of independence.

We also learned that in Tashkent, on August 27, all the attending doctors surrounding Karimov were fired - they were afraid that they would not have been licking, and foreigners, from Germany, Finland ... flew there from Moscow and Leo Bokeria.

Karimov was not treated abroad?

Never. He always wrote out all the luminaries to him.

Photo: ria novosti/AFP, www.ru.wikipedia.org, Mikhail Metzel/TASS, RIA Novosti/AFP

V6.9.2 New Features and Bug-Fixes: