Dmitry Oreshkin: "Elections and reluctance"

"Veleemir Khlebnikov (" President of the Zemchara ") called the fellow citizens who spend their lives on his side, illegally. Maybe it is too harsh, but what will you take from him, the president.

There is a simple, repeatedly confirmed empirical law: no more than 60% of those who promised to do this during election surveys go to vote. According to various sociological services, the share of the intention to vote on September 18 ranges about 60%. This means that it makes sense to expect a real appearance no more than 40-45% - with the understanding that in Chechnya and other people close in the spirit of the republics, the indicators of the turnout, as usual, will be pulled by 90% and higher, ”writes the political scientist on the blog on the website of the Echo of Moscow radio station, arguing about the need for participation in the future Duma elections.

“Hence three simple conclusions. Firstly, the weight of each voice increases noticeably: if the turnout is less than half, each voting acts as if on behalf of two voters. Secondly, the share of the regions with a“ special electoral regime ”is dispropar. Of the more than 80 subjects of the Russian Federation, no more than 20, but, given that the necessary numbers of turnout and votes are easily drawn there,“ for someone ”. In general, their share will increase to a third, if not more, and thirdly, the elections acquire a new meaning: the question is no longer in the Duma (which, in fact, is a decorative role in the authoritarian regime!), And in the one who represents the population of Russia: real citizens of large Europeanized cities that are in deep apathy and disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment, or disappointment. "Dead Souls", which are mobilizing the elites of conditional "electoral Asia".

The second option is more than satisfied with the nomenclature, which is increasingly leaning towards the stability regime according to the Uzbek, Turkmen or Chechen model. A low turnout strategy, when cities demonstrate their irritation in the form of absenteeism and thus subtract themselves from the political process, and an academician of Kadyrov with his falsified army occupies the vacant place, and even at the hand of the highest leadership.

Let's figure it out on the fingers. In Chechnya, 0.7 million voters are rounded. In 2012, in the presidential election, the official turnout indicator there was 99.8%. Of these for V.V. Putin - 99.6%. How such figures are ensured, people who have experience in life in the USSR do not need to explain. In St. Petersburg, 3.8 million voters - five times more. But if the turnout in St. Petersburg is, for example, 40% (approximately 1.5 million voting), the difference decreases already to double. At the same time, the “voices” from Chechnya completely go into one basket, and in St. Petersburg they, despite the falsification efforts of the leadership, still diverge in different ones. As a result, the total contribution to the piggy bank of the Giant City, the second capital of Russia, is commensurate with the contribution of the small but proud of the mountain Republic - despite the five -time difference in weight categories.

Well, and who in this situation determines the political future of the country? And who in the Kremlin love more? And most importantly, this simple electoral aria twenty times in a row is performed in other subjects of the federation similar to the manner of voting: in Dagestan, Ingushetia, Bashkortostan, etc. ”

"In large cities, this is impossible. Therefore, the authorities are extremely interested in the cities of these elections to oversleep. Let them accumulate in the kitchens, go into internal emigration, proudly ignore and console themselves with the fact that they do not sit down to play with rabbits or do not understand the varieties of g ... very well: the nomenclature is quite enough, that the dedicated local nomenclatures are dismantled in the varieties of this substance. They will decide for you how many of its varieties will be presented as part of the new legislative body.

What to do? First, go to the polls. Without flattering up, but firmly remembering that on September 18, one of your vote will cost two, and even with duck. Secondly (which is more difficult) - to take care of the organization of civil control over the calculation of the votes, which is theoretically guaranteed by the electoral laws of the Russian Federation, but is extremely not welcome by bureaucracy, which loves to form the results of folk expense in silence and peace, without extra eyes. "