Dodik increases bets

Milorad Dodik, the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, is advised in the Kremlin how to quickly ruin Bosnia. The opponents of the President of the Republic of Serbian in Bosnia and Herzegovina took about this his today's visit to Vladimir Putin. Dodik wants to enlist the support of Moscow in his confrontation with the West because of the referendum scheduled for September 25 on the celebration of the Republic Day. The referendum is prohibited by the Bosnian Constitutional Court.

The problem of celebrating the Day of the Republic of Serbian, which Bosnian Serbs annually celebrate January 9, arose for a long time. Bosnian Muslims and Croats, which make up 10-15% of the population of the Republic of Serbian, are trying to achieve its cancellation. Last year, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina recognized this holiday as an anti -constitutional and discriminatory of the non -power population. Then Dodik spoke about the referendum on this issue.

January 9 - the day when in 1992, shortly before the start of hostilities in Bosnia , the “Declaration on the proclamation of the Republic of the Serbian people of Bosnia and Herzegovina” was adopted. In addition, on this day, the Serbs honor Stefan the First -Meshnik, whom they consider the patron saint of the Republic of Serbian. In Bosnian Muslims and Croats, this date is rather associated with war and genocide. They offer to find for the celebration of some other day that would be acceptable to all ethnic and religious communities. In addition, Dodik opponents note that the Republic of Serbian was officially recognized only as a result of the Deyton Peace Agreement in 1995, and not in 1992.

After the CS prohibited the referendum, this dispute grew into a serious confrontation with the involvement of neighbors and large powers, including Russia and Western countries. The ambassadors of the countries of the Council for the implementation of a peace agreement at the meeting on September 17 called on the Bosnian Serbs to refrain from holding a referendum. Dodik again reminded that the Constitutional Court is the highest instance that considers controversial issues. "The Republic of Serbskaya will remain an integral and essential part of the sovereign state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in accordance with the general framework agreement on the world. There will be no Big Card," the document refused to support.

According to the Russian ambassador Peter Ivantsov , participants in the peace process should contribute to the resolution of disputes in the BIG, and not make statements about the impossibility of holding a referendum in the Republic of Serbian.

In any case, Milorad Dodik ignored the calls addressed to him. In an interview with the Balkan edition of Radio Freedom/Free Europe, he stated that the referendum would take place, despite international pressure. The leader of the Bosnian Serbs is convinced that the high representative (international administrator) in Bosnia Valentin Inzco will not dare to apply his special powers against him and will not dare to remove him from office.

We believe that this council is an illegal body that is not provided for by the Deatho Agreement

Dodik said that he will inform Vladimir Putin about preparing for a referendum and discuss with him the issues of economic cooperation:

- Russia is a member of the Council for the implementation of a peace agreement, but we believe that this council is an illegal body that is not provided for by the Deyton Agreement. He encourages the criminal activity of a high representative to destroy the Deyton Agreement in many aspects. Highness and refusal to comply with the letter of the Deuton - the constituent activities of this council.

In Moscow, I will present our position on the referendum, and it is completely clear. This is not a referendum about the department, and it is not directed against anything. This is a kind of survey of citizens about what they think about the celebration of the Republic Day on January 9. This referendum is not directed against European integration, and it is not anti -bending, ”said the leader of the Bosnian Serbs.

He commented on the US position on this issue:

- I do not think that the US Embassy is right when it says that a referendum, that is, the will of the people, is a violation of an international agreement. Of course, it is bad to have problems with the Americans, but sometimes it is necessary. Let me remind you that all political parties, including oppositional ones, supported the initiative to hold a referendum. I urge all people to come, not only Serbs, but also Muslims and Croats. This is important from the point of view of their participation in the political process. I do not see anything reprehensible in the fact that someone will speak out against.

There are bad problems with the Americans, but sometimes it is necessary

And although Dodik constantly emphasizes that the referendum on the holiday is not a referendum on the separation of the Republic of Serbian, it does not exclude the possibility of such a will in the future.

- In our agenda is not a department, but other important issues. Whether this issue will arise in the future, whether it will solve my generation or not, I do not know. But, given the development of events, rough pressure, reduction of our powers, perhaps this issue will become relevant, ”said Dodik.

Political tension in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains the entire post-war 20th anniversary. Here it was not possible to create an effective control model and establish a normal dialogue. The political elites of the Bosnian Muslims, Serbs and Croats often interpret Dython and the Constitution of the country in different ways. They have different views on the construction of the state, reforms and integration processes.

Observers pay attention that the dodik ordered a referendum just a week before the local elections that will be held in Bosnia on October 2. Many perceive this as an attempt to mobilize the nationalist part of the electorate in a difficult economic situation and the obvious fall in the popularity of his party-the Union of Independent Social Democrats.

Local politicians openly play the interethnic contradictions and fears of their communities, often recalling the military past and insulting the former enemy. This is especially noticeable in the days of election campaigns. This time, the parties went beyond the usual "framework of hatred", already starting a public discussion of military scenarios. At the same time, the highest leadership of Serbia has already promised, if necessary, to protect their counterparts.

True, experts, although they note an increase in tension, still exclude that the situation may get out of control.

- Recently, many are talking about the possibility of resuming war. So, the former field commander Sefer Khalilovich said the other day that in case of resumption of hostilities, the Republic of Serbskaya would not have lasted more than 10-15 days. This caused a storm of emotions from the Serbs. The Prime Minister of Serbia Alexander Vuchich, who is at the Session of the UN General Assembly, did not even exclude the possibility of urgent return from New York due to increased tension in the region, commented on the situation for Radio Liberty, the political observer Edin Crech.

According to his assessment, the dodik, which very often speaks of different referenda, but in the end does not conduct them, in fact, now put in the end all his political authority and career.

He constantly appeals to Russia, speaks of close ties with it, referring to history and Orthodoxy

- If Dodik still holds a referendum without consequences for him personally, this will mean that he received a kind of inviolability, has turned into a ruler who can do everything he wants. He constantly appeals to Russia, speaks of close ties with it, referring to history and Orthodoxy. Apparently, this is the calculation that everyone else will retreat before Russian power and change their positions, ”says Edin Crech.

Our other interlocutor in Sarajevo, political analyst Zhelko Baich believes that Dodik can receive support from Russia, but Moscow will not additionally complicate its relations with the West because of it:

Dodik is needed this referendum to understand the limits of its influence

- Russia now has other problems and priorities. The Republic of Serbian is not one of them. The same can be said about the United States for which Bosnia and Balkans are not a priority at this stage. Dodik’s visit to Russia is rather a symbolic step. The referendum on the celebration of the Republic Day is primarily a matter of domestic policy, although with some international consequences. Dodik needs this referendum to understand the limits of its influence and how much his hands are untied to organize another, more dangerous referendum - about the separation of the Republic of Serbian, ”says Zhelko Baich.

Experts do not exclude that in the negotiations in Moscow a certain solution can be found, which will allow you to defuse the situation. They recall that Milorad Dodik himself, who over the years of his political career has gone from the Social Democrat, who used the support of the West, to the nationalist who denies the existence of the Bosnian state, often corrects his views.