Churkin and the war party

The United States called Barbarism Aleppo air strikes , which are inflicted by Russian aircraft. As a result of raids in recent days, dozens have been killed and wounded, and possibly hundreds of civilians. The Syrian government army announced a general attack on the city last week - after the ceasefire, previously signed by Moscow and Washington, was torn off . The prospects for the end of the Civil War in Syria have now become completely ghostly - after the Kremlin once again the "party of the war", obviously, beat the "party of the world."

On the night of September 25 to September 26, dozens of air strikes were inflicted on the eastern Aleppo regions held by the rebels. Representatives of the local organization of volunteer rescuers "White Helmets" say that the bombing continued until 6 in the morning, using phosphorus and cassette bombs, as well as napalm. The Syrian "Human Rights Monitoring Center" in London said that as a result of air raids on Aleppo and the surrounding villages since Monday, when the ceasefire agreement was violated, 237 people and 162 armed rebels were killed.

At a meeting of the UN Security Council on Sunday evening, convened at the initiative of the USA, Great Britain and France, the US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power called Russia's actions in Syria "barbarism". After the resumption of full -scale battles for Aleppo, representatives of about 30 groups of the Syrian opposition described Moscow as a “sponsor of regime” in Damascus and in a joint statement rejected the possibility of further mediation of Russia in resolving the conflict. As a result, Washington, London and Paris, which were now supported by Berlin and Rome, firmly entrusted all the blame for violating the ceasefire for Moscow.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in response that they could not “cope with their obligations in Syria,” in his opinion, just Western countries. In an interview given on September 26, NTV was criticized by the Russian television channel , yesterday’s convocation of a meeting of the UN Security Council in Syria, calling it "unnecessary distraction." At the same time, Walid Muallem, the Foreign Minister in the government of Bashar al -Assad, noted that the ceasefire, developed with the help of the United States and Russia, is "still viable." According to him, the Assad administration is ready to participate in the creation of the government of national unity and support a referendum under the new Constitution of the country.

Aleppo remains the main field of the battle of the conflict for the sixth year. The mastery of the rebellious areas of the largest city in Syria, where more than 250 thousand civilians live in a trap, will mean the largest victory in the civil war for the president of Bashar Assad, emphasizes the Arabist political scientist Grigory Kosach :

-Russia claims that it strikes terrorists from the organization "Jebhat Fatam Ashham" (previously called "Jebhat al-Nusra" and associated with "al-Qaeda"). And the United States states that the city has accumulated a mass of civilian population and detachments of the so -called "moderate opposition." Is it clear who and with whom is fighting under Aleppo now?

- It’s impossible to talk about it for sure. On the other hand, a significant number of civilian population are still in the city, which is subjected to cruel tests. Russia states that it strikes the former Jebhat al-Nusra. But these blows are simultaneously applied to residential quarters, as well as those called the moderate Syrian opposition. The demarcation lines between the groups of the moderate opposition and the “ex-Dzhebhat al-Nusra” are still not defined. Representatives of all opposition to the Syrian government of organizations are concentrated in residential quarters. Therefore, striking on them leads to significant sacrifices among the civilian population of this city.

- Who is more lying in verbal battles at the UN? Moscow, first of all, Vitaly Churkin accuses the West of supporting terrorists. It is hard to believe that Washington can support some Syrian groups associated with al-Qaeda, with international Islamic radicals, and even on the 15th anniversary of the 2001 attacks in the United States.

In the words of Churkin, in any case, there is a huge share of cunning

- Neither parties have a clear idea of what is happening in Aleppo and next to Aleppo, since there are no neutral observers everywhere that could explain the truth. But in the words of Churkin, in any case, there is a huge share of cunning. Such actions from the West, as the support of Islamic terrorists, cannot be imagined. Moreover, most likely, Churkin’s words are evidence of a difficult situation in the Kremlin, at least in the Russian foreign policy itself. It contains a variety of parties: "Party of War", "Party of the World", different "parties" that do not want to achieve understanding with the West. Churkin, apparently, represents the latter. Because what he says (and this applies not only to his latest statements, but also to many of his assurances in the past), it proves that, from his point of view, it is necessary to maintain a course of great confrontation with the United States and with all those who have now made, together with Washington, a draft of the corresponding resolution in the UN Security Council. This is evidence of their intolerance! This is a certificate of reluctance to achieve mutual understanding. This is the desire to undermine that mutual understanding, which recently was hardly achieved by John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov.

- And what was the point of signing an agreement on the ceasefire in Syria, then to immediately violate it?

- I do not think that in this case it was a violation from Lavrov and Kerry. This is absolutely impossible to imagine. There is another force - the Russian military department, which is absolutely not interested in ensuring that the agreement on the ceasefire lasts long enough. Moreover, the Russian Ministry of Defense can currently dictate its will and the foreign policy (Churkin’s proof of this), and the whole Russian leadership who does not do anything in order to soften the position of the Russian military. Almost from the very moment of reaching the Lavrov -Kerry agreement, the Russian military department headed for violation of this agreement.

- But by signing the agreement, and then under the most severe criticism from very many states of the world, Russia set itself in a deliberately flawed position. You can pay attention to the fact that not only the United States and Great Britain, but very sharply, France, Germany, Italy, which still statements in such a tone, have not allowed themselves, have not allowed themselves against the Kremlin in connection with Syria. Why such a deliberate loss? Is it that what is called the "Kremlin towers", the same Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Defense, act as different heads of the same state eagle - and the left does not know what the right is doing?

This is their eternal problem, "to do, and only then think"

- Most likely - yes, this is exactly what happens. In general, inside the authorities, a completely obvious roll is observed towards the confrontation of the West. And this roll is manifested in a variety of directions, not only in Syria, but also by a number of both domestic political Russian problems and foreign policy. And in the military department, few thought, it is obvious that Russia would be in an extremely uncomfortable position. This is their eternal problem, "to do, and only then think." Unfortunately, this problem is constantly present in the activities of many Russian instances and Russian centers of influence.

- Formally, from the point of view of military analytics, on whose side is the advantage in the Civil War in Syria now? On the side of the troops of Bashar al -Assad - or not?

- Of course, a military advantage is not on the side of the Assad army - in fact, mention of this can be found on the pages of the Russian press. When I read, for example, in an “independent newspaper” an article by a military analyst that Russian marine infantrymen who guard this highway took positions along the strategic road for Aleppo, since the government Syrian army is not capable of doing this (of course, all this is supplied from the point of view of the fact that the fighters of the Jabhat Fatam Ashm are constantly carried out on this road. ISIS, and the latter, by the way, is not at all in this area for Aleppo), then everything becomes clear! When in the same Russian press we can find mention that the territory of Syria is operating by the al-Codes special forces ( Jerusalem.-RS ) of the Iranian "Corps of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution" and only thanks to them the Army of Assad can carry out some sporadic successful operations, then this also says a lot.

Of course, the Syrian government army today seems absolutely uninhabited. Of course, the Assad army today continuously suffers losses in manpower, because few of the young Syrian young men seek to get into this army and doom themselves to death. So, most likely, an advantage on the side of a variety of opposition, not only moderate, but also radical-Islamist. This is today's reality, which is very difficult to deny.

- The war in Syria lasts several years. The whole history of conflicts in such cases, in such regions, is convinced that if one of any force quickly did not defeat the war in the war, as a result there is a papal situation when all sides are depleted and only to look for ways to reconciliation. And suddenly - such an exacerbation under Aleppo! How to explain him, why right now?

Today in Syria for Moscow there is a situation when the tail twists the dog

- Yes, it is a path situation when you need to look for a way out! By the way, from the very beginning, reasonable Russian politicians and experts spoke about the need to be as low as possible Russian military intervention, unless, of course, it could not be excluded completely, in the intra -Syrian military conflict. But no one listened to anyone, it all happened! And today this is the game of Va-Bank, "What if something will work out, what if you succeed?" Moreover, in many ways today in Syria, a situation has developed for Moscow when the tail twists the dog! Assad is a figure that becomes fundamental, which in general disposes of Russian military capabilities! And in the alliance with Assad there are representatives of the Russian military leadership, acting in such a way as to support exactly this tail, which is spinning a dog called Russia.

- The Syrian war is extremely confusing. Why now everyone has concentrated so much attention precisely on Aleppo, and not on other fronts, on other sides in this war? Everyone, for example, somehow forgot about the already mentioned terrorist group "Islamic State". After all, until recently, it was considered the main enemy of the whole world!

- Because if Assad establishes control over Aleppo, he once and for all cuts off the Syrian opposition from the opportunity to receive external assistance. This means finally destroying this opposition, this means the triumph of the Assad regime. He will remain the winner - although how real he will be the winner, if efforts for the sake of his salvation are not made at all by his army, but by the troops of other states, Russia and Iran?

It is Aleppo that is the problem that fully highlights the intentions of the parties

And the Islamic State group, it is also ISIS, and was not in the context of the confrontation in Syria in the spotlight. At least when Russia entered into this conflict, ISIS was only a pretext for sending troops and aircraft, to support Assad - nothing more. Who really worries ISIS? These militants are somewhere aside, in desert regions. The Americans, along with the Iraqis, are preparing an advance on the city of Mosul, but no one knows how long this preparation will last. Allegedly, the actions of the Assad army are aimed at establishing control over Palmyra, supposedly they opened the way to Racke, which is considered the "capital of ISIS." And where is this Palmyra, where is the Rakka? No one talks about this today! It is Aleppo that is the problem that fully highlights the intentions of the parties, determines who will be the winner: either the opposition or the regime in Damascus. And international Islamic terrorism is forgotten.

-But Vitaly Churkin just spoke a lot in the Council of Security Council, for example, that Assad’s troops stand under the city of Deir ez-Zor and reflect the attack of the Islamic State. And that according to these Assad units, supposedly British aviation (how does he know that she, incomprehensibly) recently inflicted a “criminal” blow. And in general, in his opinion, if it were not for Russian aviation and Assad soldiers, Igil allegedly had already broken through to Damascus and Aleppo, and anywhere.

-Churkin should have looked more carefully at the Syria map, where Dair-Ez-Zor is located. There, indeed, a certain Syrian government group is surrounded, which for a long time resists. But no offensive is in any way in this area. He would have to know if I had in mind Churkin that the territories to the west and east of Deir ez-Zor are the old ISIS, no one has violated its borders and the Assad troops were not going to advance. So all these conversations, of course, are bluff and exaggeration.

• 

  Andrey Sharogradsky

  International Radio Offer Freedom. Author and host of the information and analytical digest, podcast "Time of Freedom"

• 

  Alexander GOSTEV

  The editor of the RS information service, international observer, author and editor of the heading and podcast "Atlas of the World"

  Gosteva@rferl.org