Get into Aleppo

When Vladimir Putin began an operation in Syria a year ago, Russian - and not only media - were filled with delighted comments. What a bold step! What an unexpected decision! After all, it is quite obvious that this courage, he, an outcast, became "non-browning" due to an attack on Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea and Donbass, will again become a welcome interlocutor for all world leaders striving for Syrian settlement. And, of course, will restore its influence again. And they will give him back to him - if only in Syria everything was calm down. If only he helped to control the Islamic State!

I repent, I did not really believe that he was getting into it. The other day I came across his last year's correspondence with one colleague, an expert on American politics and her backstage. Even a few months before Putin’s invasion of Syria, a colleague assured me that it was inevitable - and I replied that I did not believe in such a development of events. Because Putin will not only not solve the Ukrainian problem, but also acquires Syrian - much more insoluble. I could not believe that Putin and his advisers are so short -sighted, they put tactics above the strategy so much. I was mistaken.

A year after the start of the Syrian operation, I think its consequences are partially clear even to Putin. No improvement in Russian-American relations occurred. Moreover, their deterioration occurred. Even if today the United States does not refuse to interact with Russia in Syria, it is obvious that the two countries are not allies, but opponents. That the West does not perceive Russia as a "fighter with terrorism", but as a state committing war crimes, perceives.

Aleppo is compared with Stalingrad, open letters are written by Putin, the suffering of people see millions of Western viewers and Internet users on the air - which means that the times when Russia was perceived as a partner or at least as a similar idea of ​​humanism and the price of human life, ended. And that politicians who lobby for Russian interests - even for very big money or even from very great stupidity, will not remain. At all. Even Marin Le Pen will run away. Everyone needs voters.

It was also not possible to solve Ukrainian problems against the background of "need" in the Syrian. I would even say that it turned out exactly the opposite - now the sanctions that were imposed for actions in Russia in the Donbass are also used for pressure on the Syrian issue. And it may well be that there will be a single sanctions package, which will also include pressure on Russia in order to identify and hold the suspects of the suspects in the destruction of the Malaysian Boeing. Over the next year, we will learn the names of these valiant knights, and it is possible that the names of Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu will crown the list of executioners presented by the international commission.

This is what expected Putin when he decided to help Assad. Did Afghanistan teach him anything? Or did he forget about what the state had to, whose senile leaders decided to cook in the Afghan boiler? After all, I remember that the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to Putin, is the largest geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century. What are you, Vladimir Vladimirovich? Want to repeat?

Because further - I assure - it will only be worse. Any ill -conceived tactical steps turn around with a strategic collapse. Putin, with all his meager economic potential and degrading managerial and analytical apparatus, finds himself face to face with irritated America, whose leadership is convinced of the absence of even a ghostly chance to agree - which means he will crush.

To leave Syria, actually signing the death sentence to Assad and his bandits, and leave the Donbass, actually signing the death sentence of Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky and their bandits, Putin cannot be: after all, the “Great Power” carriage will turn into pumpkin ahead of schedule and the population may notice that the creation is sitting on the irrigation. But staying in Syria and in the Donbass means to expose the same population to the risk of complete impoverishment - and why then do you need a small victorious war?

But the worst is still ahead. Because any exit from the Syrian campaign is the beginning of terror. These are militants who will take revenge. You can, of course, be indignant at the fact that Americans warn about it, but in fact it is just like twice two - terror will come to a country whose special services are mostly able to urinate in photography and fight with dissent or with each other. And this will not be a forgotten Chechen terror, controlled and inspired, and the real terror is fanatical and cruel. What Europeans have already encountered is repeated many times in Russian cities and will lead to a fierce confrontation with Muslim communities: they will try to expel them, while acting not at all in European.

This Apocalypse of Russia is poverty, terror, death, the war of all with all and the inglorious collapse of the state - the largest, so to speak, geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century - and will become the crown of the reign of Vladimir Putin.

When he climbed into Syria, all this was already predetermined.