Translated material
Kremlin nuclear blackmail
Russia unilaterally stops the disposal of weapons of plutonium, claiming the readiness to resume it only after the fulfillment of a number of conditions. In the United States, the decision of the Russian President Vladimir Putin has already been called a counterproductive propaganda action requiring a firm response.
On Monday, October 3, Vladimir Putin suspended the agreement with the United States on the disposal of plutonium "in connection with the emergence of a threat of strategic stability" by his decree. At the same time , a bill confirming this decision was submitted to the State Duma of Russia, which deputies will consider immediately after the start of the new composition of the lower house of the country's parliament.
In it, Moscow put forward the conditions under which she was ready to resume her participation in the agreement on the disposal of weapons of plutonium. The United States should cancel all the sanctions imposed by Washington against individual Russian entities, legal entities and individuals to compensate for the damage suffered by Russia as a result of the imposition of sanctions and forced counter -sanctions against the United States. Russia also puts forward the requirement to cancel the "Sergei Magnitsky Law", which, as noted in the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, laid the foundation for unprecedented sanctions pressure on Russia "under far -fetched pretexts." In addition, Russia requires the United States to reduce military infrastructure in countries entering NATO after 2000.
The agreement between the countries was signed in 2000. It provides for ways to dispose of excess weapons plutonium in Russia and the United States. In particular, we are talking about its use in energy nuclear reactors, burial or bringing into a state unsuitable for creating nuclear weapons.
If President Putin believes that he can intimidate the United States, he is deeply mistaken
The decision of Moscow on the suspension of the agreement on the disposal of weapons Plutonium looks like a propaganda counterproductive action - so American experts evaluate the unexpected decree of Vladimir Putin on the suspension of the contract. The demarche of the Russian leader caused a series of sharp statements by leading American politicians. “If President Putin believes that he can intimidate the United States, he is deeply mistaken,” warned the heads of the Congress Committee Democrat Elliot Engel . The Republican Congressman Ed Royce blames the Obama administration that empty warnings on her part only convince Vladimir Putin that no one intends to stop him.
Experts perceive this step of the Kremlin less emotionally, seeing in it, by and large, a propaganda step, hardly fraught with serious consequences for the control over nuclear weapons.
The expert from Harvard University , Nicholas, Ros Rosa considers a doubtful motivation given by Putin as a reason for suspension of the contract that the United States does not fulfill this agreement:
It is difficult to assume how this confrontation will end, but this demarche of Russia will leave an unpleasant precipitate for a long time
-The United States used a process, as a result of which weapons of plutonium turns into the so-called MOX fuel, a low-enriched version of plutonium, used as fuel for nuclear power plants. Russia uses similar technologies. The problem is that such a plutonium processing is extremely expensive, and the Obama administration wants to use another way of neutralizing plutonium: it mixes with various ingredients and is placed in underground storage facilities. But to change the method of processing plutonium, Russia's consent is required. In other words, Russia in this situation has legal grounds to declare that if the United States wants to refuse to turn weapon plutonium into fuel for reactors, then it is necessary to change the existing American-Russian Treaty on the disposal of plutonium.
However, linking the action of the contract on the disposal of plutonium with the implementation of the United States of the political requirements of Russia undermines the Moscow attempts to introduce itself as a side that advocates control over nuclear weapons. The issue of Plutonium processing is relevant, it must be solved by negotiations, this is in the interests of both parties. It is difficult to assume how this confrontation will end, but this demarche of Russia will leave an unpleasant precipitate for a long time, ”says Nicholas, an expert at Harvard University.
This step of Vladimir Putin is most likely a purely propaganda step that will hardly affect the American-Russian relations, says Richard Wightz, an employee of the Gudzon Institute in Washington:
The requirements that the Kremlin put as a condition for preserving the contract are unacceptable for Washington
- I see this step as an attempt by Moscow to deliver a pre -trial attack in anticipation of the statement of the White House on the suspension of the agreement on cooperation with Russia in Syria ( a statement about this followed a few hours after the decision of the processing of Plutonium. - RS ). The Kremlin, loudly notifying this step, is simply trying to give the press news that would dominate the news cycle. Objectively speaking, the decision on the suspension of the agreement on the disposal of plutonium does not condemn the real consequences.
There are no prospects for improving American-Russian relations in the coming months
Firstly, Moscow in any case is interested in the processing of weapons of plutonium into nuclear fuel, and secondly, it is quite obvious that the requirements that the Kremlin put as a condition for preserving the contract, including reparations for damage caused by sanctions, reducing the American military presence in Europe, are unacceptable for Washington. I suppose that this demarche will perceive this demarche as a purely propaganda step in Moscow.
At the same time, such a decision by Putin, coupled with Washington’s refusal to cooperate with Moscow on the Syrian problem, actually ensures that there are no prospects for improving American-Russian relations in the coming months, ”says Richard Wightz from the Gudzon Institute in Washington.
This Kremlin’s demarche is dangerous because it indicates that Vladimir Putin acts on the basis of a false idea of permissiveness, said David Kremer , former assistant to the US Secretary of State, an employee of the McCain Institute:
Putin builds a strategy based on the idea that this behavior will get away with him
- The Kremlin behaves outrageously. And this is not the only example. What he allows himself in Syria does not fit into any framework of civilized behavior. What he does in Ukraine has much greater consequences than the decision on the suspension of the contract on the disposal of plutonium. The conditions, the fulfillment of which it requires in exchange for the resumption of the contract, is generally absurd. This is a sign that he lost respect for the United States, such actions, in my opinion, should get a firm response from Washington. I am very worried that Putin is building a strategy based on the idea that such behavior will get away with him.
After all, this is not just a statement that accidentally broke from his mouth. This is a well -prepared decree with clearly worked out conditions. Until now, Putin’s actions have not received an adequate response from the United States. Take at least his actions in Syria. And the United States respond to this with the termination of cooperation on the exchange of information about air strikes? What new surprises can Putin cook by the end of the presidency of Barack Obama? What can he do in order to test the new president, although it can be assumed that this relates more to Hillary Clinton than to Donald Trump, with whom it seems to me, he can hope to find a common language.
- What tools, from your point of view, do the American president have to, roughly speaking, to besiege the Kremlin?
We must create a useless zone in Syria to protect the civilian population and warn Russia and Syria that the planes that violated the zone will be knocked down
- In my opinion, we must create a useless zone in Syria to protect the civilian population and warn Russia and Syria that aircraft that violated the zone will be shot down. As for Ukraine, I do not see the point in further negotiations. Washington and his allies should tell Putin in the forehead that until the Russian forces remain in Ukraine, the sanctions will remain in force. I do not think that such a warning to Putin can be expected from President Obama. As for the future president, it is difficult to say. I hope that if Hillary Clinton came to power, she suddenly will not change her hard views and will not prefer a soft approach to relations with the Kremlin, as happened in due time with Barack Obama, who as a candidate criticized Russia, and when he came to the White House, he began the so -called “reboot policy,” says David Kremer.