Hillary's inevitability

Well, that’s all: as the New Times predicted in August in reports from the party conventions in Cleveland and Philadelphia, the winner of the 2016 presidential race was determined by the results of television debates a little less than three weeks before the election on November 8. Unless, of course, nothing happens. What can not be excluded too

Clinton

Hillary Clinton appeared on the stage of the University of Nevada in Las Vegas in a dazzling white trouser suit from Ralph Lauren ($ 2200, according to fashionable American magazines) with a jacket fastened with large white buttons under the throat-very remotely, still reminiscent of a military jacket. Pyproke suits practically her uniform (noble blue-blue with white lapels and a white blouse-on the second debate, a slightly rustic red on the first-were also from Lauren, although during the campaign it appeared in jackets and other famous brands with price tags up to $ 12,300 (Armani). It was evident that she chose the image for her last television battle with Trump A dear, well-groomed, knowing the price of a woman-not only having a sufficient political experience in order to accept the powers of the supreme commander (from here-a jacket-bundle), but also ready to answer the challenge of herself Bonvivan, confident that any woman is him, by the right of a billion state and television popularity, in the turn of the head. Clinton slipped at a slight contempt, barely captured disgust to a person claiming the oval cabinet of the White House and - not able to hold the width buttoned, and his hands with him: on the eve of the debate, a number of Americans committed a cangutus, talked about personal experience associated with the sexual incontinence of Trump.

In the tone, in the turn of the head, in the expression of Clinton, a slight contempt slipped, barely captured disgust to a person claiming the oval cabinet of the White House and - not able to hold the fly butt, and his hands with him with him

Almost every woman at least once in her life survived these sweaty hands, this dog breathing, it is a poured body, and therefore, looking at Trump - saw the one whom she could not take off and then from which she had been washed in her soul for a long time, crushing tears of anger and disgust and imagining, as she would find, and you will be imposed. Hillary and beat him with a reel: it is time, but this is a triumph of satispulation-it was transmitted through the screen and caused delight: "Ah, well done, well, yet, rot, more!" She was doomed to win, and she did it: smartly, stylishly, even with some chic. By the way, neither at the beginning of the debate, nor at the end of their Clinton, Trump's hands did not give.

Trump

The candidate from the Republicans, unlike previous debates, looked as if he had pierced a needle-the energy that was, somewhere left. All the same costume from Brioni ($ 7000), the same red tie, slightly tinted with henna, stacked in the lining of hair - but Trump even seemed lower in tall. No, he answered the questions of the host (the “judge” on the debate was the leading of the conservative Fox News Channel Chris Wallace, a registered democrat), interrupted (37 times, Clinton - 9, against 51 - during the first debate, Clinton - Clinton, even attacked, but rather, in need: as a boxer who knows that the battle has already been lost, but to go into a corner. it is forbidden. If in the first debate Trump behaved like a self -confident teenager, arrogantly deciding that he knew everything better than others, and therefore does not need to prepare for questions - and he lost to smithereens to smithereens, then on the second debate he accepted the Statesman’s counter, with experience, with views, with the position - let it be alien to many. And although polls showed that the second round Clinton also won (53% versus 37%), her advantage was not much noticeable - rather a draw. However, the phrase of Trump that if he wins the election and becomes the president, then “she” (Clinton) will go behind bars, forced even his supporters to shout: almost all American media wrote that “planting political opponents” is the practice of authoritarian rulers (and nodded towards the Kremlin).

The Third Round Trump was supposed to win a knockout: by October 19, Clinton in all surveys was the leader with a margin of plus or minus 7%. But either the shaft of the revelations in the media (Trump called the media “fifth column”), or fatigue-still he was 70, or he suddenly told himself: “And this White House gave up to the hell?” (so de facto at one time abandoned the authorities of both Zyuganov and Yavlinsky), but in Las Vegas, he seemed to literally forced himself to resist. Only once in Trump really leaped the blood: when Clinton attended Russia and Putin of cyber attacks on American sites and institutes and called the opponent “Putin's puppet”, Trump rushed to protect Putin. This loyalty of the billionaire to the president of another power, largely hostile to the United States, amazes primarily by its constancy. During the presidential campaign, Trump changed his views on almost all key issues: NBC reporters calculated that on the problem of illegal emigration (in the USA, 11 million people do not have documents that allow you to be in the country), Trump changed their position at once - from the hard “all out” to - “you can think about citizenship for them”; 15 times Trump corrected his view of the “Muslim problem” - from the unconditional restriction on entry to all people professing Islam to - “only from some countries”. And only in one he is unchanged - in his adoration of Putin, to whom he refers to the youngest - to the eldest: “Putin all of you ( President Obama and Clinton, when it was by the Secretary of State. - NT) outplayed over and over again,” he explained on the debate. And even those who are not inclined to believe in conspiracy theories begin to wonder: what could the Kremlin messengers promise Trump (option: what could they frighten like that?), What makes the latter constantly declare their loyalty to Putin?

Brexit incident

Judging by the latest surveys, on November 8, Clinton will celebrate the victory. The RCP (RealClearpolitics.com) index, based on analysis of 11 different national polls, gives Clinton an advantage of 6.4%.

The popular blog Five Thirty Eight* believes that the probability of Klinton’s victory is 86.9%. The Clinton states are also inclined in favor of the states, that is, the territories with a unsteading party attachment (today they vote rather for the Republicans, tomorrow-for the democrats), but having a large number of votes of electorals (the number of electors corresponds to the number representing the staff in the federal parliament of congressmen and senators): for example, if a month ago, Florida on the electoral map was painted in red. The color of the Republicans, now Clinton is leading there, Ohio balances on the verge of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan has already made their choice in favor of the candidate from the Democrats. “It seems that Clinton has finished yesterday with Trump,” wrote Nate Silver, founder of Five Thirty Eight, the day after the debate in Las Vegas.

Everything is so. But there is one “but”, which is now invariably reminiscent of English journalists: a few days before the referendum in the UK, the vast majority of qualified observers claimed that the British would certainly vote to stay in the European Union. They voted, as you know, exactly the opposite.

There are a number of factors that do not fit either in sociological surveys or in probabilistic schemes.

First: according to all surveys, Clinton takes most of the female votes, and the latest data indicate that Trump loses even among white married ladies - the traditional electorate of Republicans. Gender gives Clinton the advantage of almost 15 percentage points. However, something else is known: when the spouses come to the election urns - especially in the American outback, women, as a rule, coordinate their choice with their husband, to whom the last word belongs.

The second: minorities, Afro- and Latin American, as well as the American Indians, according to surveys, they choose Clinton: among African Americans, 87%are ready to vote for it, Latinos- 75%. One misfortune: special efforts are required so that they come to the election urns: Obama in 2008 and 2012 succeeded, whether Clinton will succeed-a question.

Finally, sociologists are afraid that people simply lie, answering their questions: much more people than the numbers reflect, tend to support Trump simply because they are afraid of Islamic terrorism or do not want their taxes to go to emigrants leaking a leaky border in Arizona. Trump’s rhetoric is a bad tone for the middle class living on the coasts, but the secret of voting in the election booth closed from others can help to overcome embarrassment and, frowning and croaking, put its checkmark opposite the name Trump.

And even those who are not inclined to believe in conspiracy theories begin to wonder: what such Kremlin messengers could promise Trump (option: what could they scare it?) That it makes the latter constantly declare their loyalty to Putin

November 9th

However, even if the elections take place according to the current predictions of sociologists, it is completely not clear what to expect from the electorate of Trump - and this is for the most part white blue collars - in case of its loss.

To the direct question asked by Trump on the debate: “Does he recognize the election results?”, The Republican candidate replied: “The time will come - I’ll decide.” “This is scary,” Clinton commented, remembering the second amendment to the US Constitution, which gives the Americans the right to own weapons. But what if they take this weapon in their hands and, on the call of Trump, will go out onto the streets of cities? That is why the law of American elections of any level - as soon as the results become known, the loser immediately publicly recognizes his defeat. Whether Trump will make it, given his love of shocking, a question.

Another bunch of unknown people are associated with elections to Congress, which will also be held on November 8. Here the question is like this: will Trump pull the republican party along, and if so, how deep will this fall be? If you believe today's polls and Clinton will win with a margin of 5-6%, then the Democrats will regain control over the upper chamber, the Senate, but the Republicans will leave the House of Representatives. However, if Trump loses deafeningly and Clinton will win with a margin of 15%, it is possible that the democrats will receive complete control over the congress. Which, of course, will allow Obama, in which Obama was located for almost the entire second presidential term: when the Republican Congress, moreover, controlled by the conservatives from Tea Party, set slingshots on the path of any initiative of the White House, as a result, Obama was forced to take the most important decisions for the nation, rather than the laws (and for each decree there is a reproducing decree of the new president). However, there is a flip side of the coin, when both the executive branch and the legislative are controlled by one party: history shows that all the US wars began in the conditions of a one -party federal government. Whether we do not understand these threats.

* 538 - this is the number of electors, which, in turn, corresponds to the sum of the deputies of the National Congress: 435 members of the House of Representatives Plus 100 senators and three electors from the Columbia District, where the US capital, Washington is located.