Normandy dead end

On October 19 in Berlin, Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin again discussed the Donbass. And again there was no breakthrough

The Kremlin, most likely, no longer flatters itself with the illusion that it has allies in the West capable of forcing Ukraine to start a settlement in the Donbass according to Putin's scenario. On the contrary, Putin seems to have finally come to believe in Tsar Alexander III's famous formula that Russia has only two allies - its army and its navy. In my opinion, it is no coincidence that it was on the eve of the Normandy Four meeting in Berlin that Russia began the largest deployment of the Russian Navy since the Cold War. And is it by chance that the military situation has sharply escalated right now in the East of Ukraine? Don't think.

After Berlin, we can state that there was no breakthrough. Poroshenko, no matter how and whoever puts pressure on him, has a limit of maneuver and no political resource to agree to holding elections in the occupied part of Donbas in a situation where this territory is de facto controlled from Moscow. The Ukrainian president will not receive support either in society or in parliament. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine is not a "furious printer" and not a "department for the legislative execution of decisions of the presidential administration." This is a real body of power, which has huge rights, powers, political influence. Ukraine is still a presidential-parliamentary republic. The parliamentary coalition that Poroshenko relies on is very shaky. Plus there is a very active civil society. Plus volunteers and ATO veterans. In which case, these Poroshenko forces will simply be swept away.

What is significant: in Berlin, they seem to have agreed on a kind of roadmap for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. But the position of the majority of Ukrainian politicians and ordinary citizens is very simple: a road map? - Great! But the steps on this map must be carried out in the following sequence: first, a complete cessation of hostilities. Then - the withdrawal of troops and the withdrawal of weapons. Then the exchange of prisoners - all for all. Then the restoration of control over the now uncontrolled part of the border with Russia. And only then - elections.

Merkel and Hollande hint that some steps may be carried out in parallel. I think they are doing this not because they do not understand the real situation, but in order not to disrupt further negotiations. The failure of their "peacekeeping" efforts will inevitably be presented by both Hollande's opponents and Merkel's opponents in the upcoming elections as the biggest foreign policy defeat of the two leaders.

Exactly for the same reasons, as far as one can judge, Putin's assistant on Ukrainian affairs, Vladislav Surkov, who is under European sanctions and denied the right to enter the EU, was allowed to attend the talks in Berlin with his boss. Merkel - and this, apparently, was personally agreed with her - considered that the refusal could unnecessarily complicate an already difficult relationship with Putin. Again, according to my information, Poroshenko was informed in advance that Surkov, whom he personally knew, would appear at the meeting, otherwise it would have been an unpleasant gesture towards the Ukrainian president.

On October 20, upon his return from Berlin, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Klimkin, speaking in the Verkhovna Rada, made an important reservation regarding the specific results of the Quartet meeting: they say that at the time when elections are held in Donbass, control over the border will be carried out by special forces of the OSCE, and on the second day after the elections, the OSCE will transfer the border to the control of Ukrainian border guards.

But, I think, neither the Parliament nor the society may agree with this. Especially after all of Ukraine saw a crowd of thousands of mourners at the funeral of Motorola, and everyone asked themselves the question: even if the Russians leave, even if Putin, Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky and others like them disappear - how to sew together a country where people live on part of the territory such people?

Surkov, who is under sanctions and denied the right to enter the EU, was allowed to attend the talks in Berlin with his boss. Merkel - and this, apparently, was personally agreed with her - considered that refusal could unnecessarily complicate
already complicated relations with Moscow