Friendship of iron fists

Moscow is increasingly showing the world its desire to become again, as in the days of the USSR, one of the main military-political players throughout the Middle East, and not just in Syria. Near the Egyptian city of Alexandria on the Mediterranean Sea, from October 15 to 26 , joint exercises of the airborne and other units of the armies of Russia and Egypt under the name "Friendship Defenders-2016" are held . The Kremlin intensely establishes strategic contacts with the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi, which is skillfully advancing in foreign policy between the global powers, but not hiding their disappointment in the former many years of allies-the United States. Perhaps Russia's efforts begin to bear fruit.

In the exercises, "Friendship Defenders - 2016" in Egypt on both sides are participated in more than 500 military personnel, 15 combat aircraft and helicopters, and many military equipment. Their official goal is to develop joint operations to destroy terrorist groups and "illegal armed groups."

The Russian Ministry of Defense, starting on October 24, proudly demonstrates videos on which Russian paratroopers (obviously, from the 106th Guards Airborne Division), together with the Egyptian colleagues, make complex jumps from the Air Force aircraft from different heights, up to 3 kilometers, hugging in the air and exchanging parachutes of the "newest ones structures ", both Russian and Egyptian production. On Monday, Russian and Egyptian troops freed a settlement near Alexandria from the "conditional terrorists", and over 30 states of the world observed the armed forces.

Recently, the Izvestia newspaper, citing its sources, said that Russia is leading with Egypt, still having a special status of the “main ally of the United States outside NATO”, negotiations on the possibilities of leasing of Egyptian military facilities, including the former Soviet naval base in the city of Sidi-Barrani , near the border with Libya. In Cairo, this information has not yet been unequivocally confirmed, but also not refuted.

What “conditional enemy” are called to scare the Russian military in Egypt-on this topic in an interview with Radio, the freedom argues the political scientist Arabist, the commentator of the Rain TV channel Konstantin von Eggert :

- The main component of such teachings is always political, especially since it is simply impossible to compare the combat readiness and condition of the armed forces of Egypt and Russia, they are on too different steps. For the Kremlin, these teachings, of course, the demonstration that Russia in the Middle East is fixed and is not ready to limit only to maintaining ties with its current main ally - the regime of Bashar al -Assad in Syria. Given the fact that Egypt and the United States are experiencing not the best times today, for Moscow this is another opportunity to demonstrate to Washington, that Russia is ready to replace it or, if you want, "move" in world affairs and in regional politics. In the current conditions, when the President of Egypt, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi willingly goes to contact with Moscow, this is a great chance for Vladimir Putin to once again show the White House that he is an independent player.

President of As-Sisi surrounded by generals

As for the Egyptians, after the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak and the parish, however, for a short while, the Muslim Brothers , today in the Egyptian elite, there is a very serious disappointment of the United States and the desire to demonstrate to Washington, which Cairo can pursue an independent foreign policy. In fact, this, if you want, is a subcontinum addressed to Washington: "Try to seduce us again, otherwise we will make friends with the Russians!" So far, it works in the interests of both modes - Egyptian and Russian.

- Egypt since 1989 has the status of "one of the main allies of the United States outside NATO." Is this status preserved or not?

- Egypt has the status of the “main ally outside NATO”, and American military assistance continues to enter Cairo, but the relations of the two countries and the relations of elites, politicians, are tense. In Egypt, President Obama still cannot forgive his indifferent attitude to the Hosni Mubarak regime, the way America was almost indifferent from how Mubarak was overthrown-after 30 years of allies. This left a very deep mark in the minds of Egyptian leaders, and above all the command of the Egyptian army, which, in fact, has been governing the country for many years. As for Washington, they always refer to the fact that, in fact, Mubarak’s regime has outlived himself (probably, to some extent it was so), and therefore it was useless to intervene in his fate anyway.

A very deep mark in the minds of Egyptian leaders

I think that under the new President of the United States, whose name we will soon find out, there will be a certain opportunity that Cairo and Washington will establish relations again. But Russia is no longer rejected by Russia, which represents a rather big problem for the United States. After eight years of being in the power of Barack Obama, the role of Washington in the Middle Eastern affairs decreased very seriously, and this influence will not be so easy to restore. Whether President Clinton, or President Trump, will want to do this, is still unclear. But, in any case, this will require efforts, and quite serious.

- In what condition, after all the crises, after the turbulent several years, is the army of Egypt? Does it still retain at least some combat effectiveness?

Egypt Air Force aircraft

- The army of Egypt, of course, retains certain combat effectiveness, but its combat experience is not very great, corruption in the army continues to bloom, and given that in fact, the highest army officers are the leaders of Egypt, it not only does not decrease, but, on the contrary, increases. Opportunities for corruption, nonsense, and hence military unprofessionalism, are growing. I think that the joint exercises of Russian and Egyptian paratroopers will only be able to recall the Egyptian generals once again, in which, to put it mildly, the armed forces entrusted to them are not better.

-After several years of the presidency of As-Sisi, after several major terrorist attacks committed by jihadian militants on the Sinai Peninsula ( we can recall the death of the Russian tourist airliner last year ), how strong are the radical Islamist sentiments in Egyptian society now?

Death sentences in Egypt by Field Marshal al-Sisi are easily taken out

- The Islamists are now underground and are quite brutally pursued. The death sentences in Egypt by Field Marshal al-Sisi are easily taken out. Therefore, the open activity of the same "Muslim brothers", generally radical Islamists, is difficult. The regime in Cairo still has support for urbanized, more or less educated and/or more or less wealthy layers of Egyptian society today. However, in the long run, the success or failure of the current Egyptian regime will depend, including on its ability to stimulate economic growth, fight social inequality, poverty, lack of education. But it was precisely on the field of charity, primarily school education and basic medical care, that “Muslim brothers” played successfully throughout the network of charitable hospitals, schools and non-governmental organizations and funds.

Now in Egypt there is a "iron fist" mode

Now in Egypt there is a “iron fist” mode, which holds the situation under control. But this kind of "fists" tend to weaken over time, iron mittens - rust. Therefore, some more strategic, more serious measures are needed to liberalize the economy, to combat corruption and to combat poverty and often just egregious social inequality.

-Each head of state, including Field Marshal al-Sisi, has, of course, a representation, false or true, about his main enemies and potential main allies. You have already said that due to the indistinct, at least, Washington’s policies in the Middle East, many countries of the region began to seriously look at Moscow as a potential ally. But seriously, in case of any exacerbation, can Cairist count on the help of Moscow? Or, again, is this all a game for an “external viewer”? Or, perhaps, as-Sisi is so afraid of jihadists who pose the main threat to him that, like Bashar Assad, he will suddenly be able to ask for some Russian air base on his territory?

One of the terrorist attacks on the Sinai Peninsula

- The main threat of Egypt safety comes, of course, from the inside - these are the Islamists who are now under pressure, who are now weakened, but who can be revived. The main external threat is instability in neighboring Libya, which can also spread to Egypt. Under these conditions, the dream of the Egyptian political regime, I think, is the restoration of close ties with the United States. At the same time, to restore such ties, not only some actions will be required, but for some time, as I said already to be the trust between Washington and Cairo.

Moscow will remain "ally number two" for the regime of the president of AS-SISI

In these conditions, of course, Moscow will remain a kind of, if you like, "ally number two" for the regime of the president of AS-SISI. Whether the Kremlin will be ready to provide some military assistance to Egypt, will depend on specific circumstances. I can imagine, for example, to send Russian ships to the shores of Egypt in case of any conflict associated with instability in Libya, for example. But so far it is difficult for me to imagine that Moscow will send the military personnel of the Pskov or Tula airborne divisions to assist the Egyptian security forces when suppressing the riots within the country. I don’t really believe in this yet.

The Russian view of the Middle East today, as, in fact, always depends on the actions of the United States

However, I note one thing. For the Russian leadership, the Middle East remains primarily a field on which the game is played not so much in the name of some specific national interests of Russia in the region itself, but rather a platform for large geopolitical chess with the United States. Therefore, in many ways, Russian politics in the region will depend on which line will be held in Washington. And we will find out quite soon. The Russian view of the Middle East in many ways today, as, in fact, always depends on the actions of the United States, from whether Vladimir Putin will want to or do not want to continue to raise bets in a large Middle Eastern game with the United States, for the sake of other things. Because in fact, for the Kremlin Ukraine, the post-Soviet space, gas pipelines to Europe, sanctions are still much more important than the Middle East. I am sure that next year we will see attempts from the Kremlin, if you like, exchange some elements of Moscow's Middle East policy to concessions in other areas and in other regions. It will turn out or not - it’s not clear to me yet. My feeling is rather instinctive that it will hardly come out. However, I am sure that it is this proposal of Moscow that the United States will make.