Reserves melt by 2019

The government submitted to the State Duma a draft three -year budget. What is important?

The government introduced a bill on the federal budget for the next three years (2017-2019) to the State Duma. Profile committees and departments will coordinate the document for the next two months so that the parliament manages to complete the budget process before the start of the new year.

In early autumn, officials said that due to high uncertainty, the project could again be annual, as the budget 2016: ahead of the presidential election, and key decisions on economic reforms have not been made. Vladimir Putin admitted that a three -year budget is perhaps "early for today's conditions." But in the end, it was decided to return to the usual format. This is an attempt to pretend that the economic crisis is coming to an end, and planning in the “new normality” again becomes possible.

The main idea of ​​the project is budget consolidation necessary to adapt the state to existence in the new conditions. The Ministry of Finance considers this process critically important and plans to achieve positive shifts for a three -year year: income for this period will increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, expenses will be reduced by 220 billion rubles, and the deficit will decrease from the current 3.7% to 1.2% of GDP. The concern of the Ministry of Finance can be understood: by 2019, the funds of sovereign funds will be practically exhausted, and 90% of the budget deficit will have to be financed at the expense of some other sources. In particular, for this, the government plans to borrow more than 1 trillion rubles through the OFZ every year.

Consolidation starts next year. The budget revenues for 2017 are provided at a level of 13.5 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.2 trillion. Deficiency - 2.8 trillion rubles, over 3% of GDP. There are some parameters unchanged for the entire forecast period: inflation will reach Targeta in 4% per annum, the average oil price will be $ 40 per barrel, and Western sanctions will not be lifted. The economy, starting with a growth of 0.6% of GDP in 2017 (this will be the first post -crisis year with a positive GDP dynamics), should accelerate to 2.1% by 2019.

The budget revenues for 2017 are provided at a level of 13.5 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.2 trillion. Deficit - 2.8 trillion rubles, over 3% of GDP

The most significant factor in the reduction in the budget expenditure in 2017 is the cutting of defense expenses from 3.9 trillion rubles to 2.8 trillion rubles (as many as 27%). But the reduction seems significant only against the background of additional expenses in the amount of 800 billion rubles, which the military -industrial complex received this year for early repayment of loans. Without taking into account these unexpected subsidies, the pace of abbreviations will be noticeably more modest (3-5% per year), and expenses for related sections, for example, for “security forces” (law enforcement), according to the results of the three-year-old will even increase. In connection with the growth of the share of closed expenses (approximately 1/5), the budget will become even more opaque, which means that the “three -year -old effective costs” can be forgotten.

One of the main conclusions from the project of the Ministry of Finance is that despite the consolidation program and other changes, by 2019 the structure of budget expenditures will essentially remain the same: the largest articles will still be national defense (17.9%), national security (12.6%) and social policy (31.7%), in the component, forming 2/3 of all expenses of the federal treasury.

Meanwhile, the volume of financing fundamentally important for the development of human capital of budget articles, medicine and education, in relation to GDP will return to the values ​​of 2006 (as previously indicated by Higher School experts, in total they will amount to a miserable 1% GDP). In 2019, 240 billion rubles in 2019 will be reduced on the national economy. These areas, in contrast to defense and social policy, are still not recognized as the authorities strategically important when it comes to drawing up the federal budget.

The project does not imply significant redistribution in tax policy - here the principle of stability is put at the forefront. “We haven’t had any fundamentally new financial resources, I would ask our colleagues to take this into account,” said Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at one of the budget meetings in early October.

The government will try to increase its meager resources through privatization, which will probably fade after operations with oil assets, tax maneuver in the energy industry and toughening the dividend policy of state -owned companies. All other questions, such as reform of the pension system and the introduction of a new budget rule, are postponed until the next interdepartmental contractions.