The darkness of power

The great drama of the American elections is completed. America voted for Trumpzit.

The voting day turned out to be a fine coast on the east coast. My New York acquaintances went to the polls like a holiday. Long lines did not scare anyone. In some places, the people were handed out by bebel bagels or something else. Only children's tights and beer did not trade, as it happened, under the Soviet regime.

This disgusting presidential campaign is tired of everyone. After all, this is a shame to look at the ladies of the advanced years. We are tired of dodging the spray of the candidate’s saliva with a straw comb and angry face, similar to a baked apple. It was time to close the topic and forget about Trump. Polls predicted Hillary a confident victory, some - an avalanche -like.

I also succumbed to general euphoria, calculated the electors - I got 333: 205 in favor of Hillary. I published these calculations on October 25. And the next day I saw these figures in the American polling aggregator.

On Tuesday morning, I looked at fresh polls and saw that in New Hampshire, which the democrats put in their piggy bank by default, the chances are almost equal. And he came to the conclusion that if Trump wins in this state, the elections will end in a draw. In this case, the President would be elected the lower house of Congress, which is controlled by the Republicans - therefore, Trump would become president. The main guru forecasts Nate Silver called such a scenario "crazy" and estimated its probability of 0.5 percent, and the chances of election Clinton were 71.4 percent.

By nine in the evening, plots in most states closed, and it soon became clear that Hillary's affairs were bad. Trump was ahead of her not only in the controversial states, but also in those that democrats are used to counting guaranteed their own. But nothing is guaranteed in the American elections. CNN observer John King was still anxiously poked with a finger in a huge touch-screensh, depicting the interactive map of the United States, as if hoping to pick out additional voices for Clinton from some Pennsylvania or Michigan district, but the leaders of the Democratic Party already became clear. A video showing Barack Obama recorded in advance appeared on Twitter that the Apocalypse was not expected: "Whatever happens, the sun will rise tomorrow." And then Hillary's farewell.

The probability that she will win the votes of voters, but will lose to the electors, Nate Silver estimated at 10.5 percent and included such a script in the list of crazy. But in the end, this is exactly what happened. This is only the fifth case in the history of the United States. By the way, Vladimir Putin repeatedly cited this example as a certificate of the undemocraticity of the American elections. But today, the whole Russian officialdom sings Osanna Trump, not at all doubtful of the legitimacy of his election.

Experts will judge for a long time and squeeze the causes of Clinton and Trump's victory. But the main thing can be said now. The question of whether the ruling class of the United States recognizes this reason. It consists in the fact that the current political system does not cope with the challenges and problems facing the country and the world. She is not able to nominate even worthy, competitive presidential candidates. And not without reason this season, non -systemic candidates - Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump had such a success. The political establishment went bankrupt, got bogged down in intrigues and straightforces, turned out to be too arrogant and too confident in the magical power of money and political technologies.

Eccitlas show that Hillary Clinton could not create a coalition of voters who voted for Barack Obama twice, and even mobilize his own potential electorate of 2008. She lost young people, pensioners, married women with children. But, of course, the most important thing is that she lost to Trump the most numerous segment: white Americans without higher education. Despite significant demographic shifts, they still make up the majority of the US population - about 64 percent. It is impossible to win the elections without their voices.

The attitude of the democrats towards this thumbnail America is akin to the attitude of Russian liberals to "quilted jackets". Yes, with Nizhny Tagil carbunkers, Pennsylvania miners, ohgio metallurgists is not easy and unpleasant, but find a common language if you want to play politics and win the elections. They feel offended and humiliated and therefore grab the demagogy of Trump - he at least promises something to them. For the American "quilted jacket" it is also important to recognize the greatness of their power as for Russian. From your point of view, is this a false value? So convince them.

Here is an amazingsurvey by his clarity. 81 percent of Trump voters believe that half a century ago life in America was better than now, and 68 percent - that the next generation of Americans will be even worse. Among the voters, Clinton of this opinion adhere to, respectively, 19 and 30 percent. No matter how ridiculous it sounds, Trump calls to build a bright past. Clinton calls to stay in place.

However, enough about the reasons. What will happen now, how will the newly elected President Trump lead? He has a difficult relationship with the leadership of the Republican Party. The formal head of the party, the ambitious speaker of the lower house, Paul Ryan will probably want to play a more noticeable and independent role. Nevertheless, these are Trump's single -partyists, and they control both chambers of the Congress. This greatly facilitates the legislative initiative and approval of appointments, including the US Supreme Court.

He will tighten the immigration policy, cancel the decrees of Obama, which defended some categories of illegal immigrants from expulsion from the country. Will he teach mass deportations of illegal immigrants? I think it is unlikely. Even he is not ready for such political costs (not to mention financial). Trump will hardly prohibit all Muslims in the United States, as promised. The settlement of Syrian refugees can stop. The Mexican Peso on the occasion of Trump’s victory collapsed , but I think the Mexicans should not be afraid that Trump will force them to pay behind the wall, which he intends to build on the border and about which he spoke especially persistently in recent days. He may believe in it, but his hands are short.

The Trump team is now the distribution of portfolios, and the first published lists of candidates for high posts make a depressing impression. In particular, a candidate for the post of Secretary of State - Newt Gingrich, a representative of the old republican guard, whose views on the world were outdated decades ago, and in international affairs he did not become famous for anything. Another candidate for the same post is Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Upper Chamber of Foreign Affairs, the politician is much younger and sane. Unlike Hillary, who gathered the color of the American international examination in his team, Trump with international experts is bad, including because he considers himself the most intelligent and does not tolerate objections. However, yesterday it became known that he was congratulated on the victory of the 41st and 43rd President of the United States, Bush father and Bush-son. This step removes from their former employees an ethical ban on working with Trump (earlier both defiantly refused to support him). Therefore, John Bolton appeared in the lists of possible appointments - a former American ambassador to the UN and Steve Hadley - former adviser to Bush Jr. in national security. The first is a candidate for the post of Secretary of State, the second - for the post of Minister of Defense.

President Trump, as he was going to, will try to establish relations with Russia, but it is not at all the fact that the grinding to Vladimir Putin will be safely. Trump is a beginner without any experience of diplomacy and with a vague idea of ​​international affairs, and Putin is a tough and unexpected person. It is unlikely that they will converge in characters. In addition, Trump already stuck the label of the Putin puppet, and he will now prove in every possible way that this is not so.

In fact, we do not yet know what challenges and crises the 45th President of the United States will have to face. Bush Jr. came to the White House in 2001 with a completely peaceful social agenda of the day, but struck on September 11, and had to deal with completely different things.