Bulgarian mini-tram

To hit crime, close the border to the castle for migrants from the Middle East and make friends with Vladimir Putin tightly. In a brief presentation, this is the program of Ruman Radev - the favorite of the second round of the presidential election on November 13 in Bulgaria. Radev-a general who came to politics, a former commander of the Bulgarian Air Force. Will another “Kremlin friend” become more in Eastern Europe?

Radeva’s rival, who took second place in the first round of voting, the head of the National Assembly of Bulgaria Tsetsk Tsechev , represents the ruling pro -European party of the coat of arms ("Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria"). Radev - non -partisan, but he was supported by opposition socialists. His rival sees in this fact the general's weak point. “It is important to understand what we want to see Bulgaria: the country in international isolation, with frozen financial assistance of the EU, with flowering corruption - namely, the socialists were doing this every time after coming to power - or a country whose voice is heard in Europe,” Tsacheva said during the pre -election debate. Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov has already said that he would resign if his party candidate loses in the presidential election. Many analysts believe that in case of victory of Radev, the country is waiting for the period of instability.

The Bulgarian economist and political scientist, director of the economic programs of the Center for the Study of Democracy (Sofia) Ruslan Stefanov , spoke about the current elections and political prospects of his country.

Ruslan Stefanov

- According to the results of the first round, Ruma Radev was a leader with a small margin from his opponent: he has almost 26 percent of the vote, and Tsetski Tsacheva - 22 percent. General Radev has a reputation as a pro -Russian candidate. How justified is it and if so, what is the reasons for its sympathy for the Kremlin?

- Judging by his numerous statements during the election campaign, Rumen Radev really prefers the closer ties of Bulgaria with Russia. There is evidence that, while the commander in chief of the Air Force, General Radev advocated military-technical cooperation with Moscow. From his biography it can be understood that he was also preparing in NATO, but in political life, recently he clearly took a position on the pro -Russian flank of Bulgarian policy. There are many reasons for this, I would note the two main ones.

Firstly, Rades is a military man, and the Bulgarian armed forces, especially the Air Force, are still very noticeable on Russian military equipment and technologies. Radev as a military pilot was connected with them from the very beginning of his career. Secondly, pro-Russian sentiments in Bulgaria as a whole are quite strong, especially among supporters of the Socialist Party, which supported the candidacy of Radev. He cannot take this into account. Pro -Russian statements are a part of a populist platform. In addition, Radev has partly even a nationalist platform, and in Bulgaria nationalism for a number of reasons, historical and cultural, is also associated with pro-Russian orientation. The rhetoric of Radeva is closer to older people, and they are very electorally active.

Pro -Russian statements - a part of a populist platform

- What can be said about his rival, Tsetsk Tsacheva, and her chances to win in the second round?

- During this election campaign, there were few substantial debates. However, the topic of the country's geopolitical orientation was affected quite actively. Mrs. Tsacheva made it clear that she considers Bulgaria a part of the Euro -Atlantic community. In this regard, Rumen Radev hesitated: he does not deny directly the importance of European and Euro -Atlantic integration, but after him it was noticed that he was saying one in the circle of "his" voters and somewhat different - in a wider public.

As for Mrs. Tsacheva, she is associated with the current ruling party of the coat of arms and her projuroral course. Tsacheva’s rating falls: at the beginning of the campaign, her separation from Radev was 7-8 percent, but he won the first round of elections with a margin of 4 percent. It seems that Tsacheva was a victim of the fact that she is associated with an establishment, with the current government, which is not widely popular. This is the first factor that plays against her and reduces her chances of victory. We have already observed this riot against the establishment in other places - take at least a referendum on Brexit, at least the recent election of the US president. This could not pass this to Bulgaria. And finally, the traditional patriarchal, masculine nature of Bulgarian politics plays against Tsacheva: to be a woman in it is unprofitable. Especially if you are opposed by a general, a former commander.

Tsetsk Tsachev and Rumen Radev on the eve of television

- That is, Bulgaria is now experiencing a Clinton against Trump Clinton in miniature?

-In a sense, this is now everywhere-the confrontation between the traditional type of democratic policy and populism. But, of course, in terms of personal, our candidates are very different from the American ones. Comparison with Trump and Clinton would be a greater simplification.

- How great are the powers of the Bulgarian president? In the event of the victory of Ruman Radev, do we have the right to expect a sharp change in the foreign policy?

If Radev wins, changes will come soon in parliament and government

- I do not think that he will have not only powers, but also political will for this. In this case, parallels with the American elections can be justified: what the candidate says during the election campaign, and his behavior after victory in the elections very often does not coincide. Having become the president, Radeev will be in a completely different position than now - besides, he also talk about him as a somewhat unpredictable candidate. According to the law, the President of Bulgaria has few powers, although he can have a certain influence on foreign policy and security issues. Another thing is that the presidential elections are always considered with us as the eve of parliamentary and a barometer of moods in society. So if General Radev defeats, this will mean that soon the changes will come in both parliament and the government.