Who came up with the coup in Montenegro and why the scandal erupted on the decisive election night

Russia, whether directly or indirectly, was accused of organizing a terrorist attack in Montenegro in order to eliminate the permanent leader Milo Djukanovic, who had been in charge there for 25 years. Why did “polite people” seem to have been sent from Russia from the territory of Serbia. However, the attack failed, and allegedly Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev secretly took two Russian special services out of Serbia on his plane. All this was told to the world by the British Guardian.

Maria Zakharova, a representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, delivered an angry rebuke: Patrushev did not take anyone out, and his visit was planned long before the events. In fact, we can agree: the stuffing looks more than strange: why would the Secretary of the Security Council pull out two goofy agents, especially since it was confirmed in Serbia that they did not catch anyone.

We have to admit: the fat media duck was fattened by different parties. Particularly resonant was the news that the investigation revealed two Russian nationalist putschists who, having bought police uniforms, gathered with the help of hired Serbs to arrange riots in the streets, so that later, while the guards yawn, get into the residence of the prime minister and, possibly, there shoot him.

These two conspirators - Eduard Shirokov and Vladimir Popov - allegedly acted in conjunction with the Serbian nationalist Aleksandar Sindzhelich, and the whole company hired the former chief of the Serbian gendarmerie Branislav Dikich. This was announced on Friday by the Montenegrin investigation.

How it all began

Podgorica, the capital of the ex-Yugoslav country of Montenegro, which in communist times bore the name of the Secretary General of the Communist Party Josip Broz Tito - Titograd - became the main arena of struggle for a small Balkan republic. The population of the country is no more than 630 thousand people, including permanent residents of Russia, and the area is approximately equal to half of the Crimea. However, it was Montenegro that occupied the tops of European news in recent months.

In 2006, a boom in investments in real estate and industrial assets in Montenegro began. The main investors and buyers of housing were Russian entrepreneurs. And the underdevelopment of the tourist infrastructure was initially offset by the unpretentiousness of the Russian tourist: at that time, Montenegro successfully competed with Turkey and Egypt.

As a result, about 1.2 billion euros of investments from Russia in the Montenegrin economy over ten years. The amount is gigantic, it is obvious that the republic's GDP in its lion's share was formed at the expense of funds from Russia. However, this is only the visible part. Experts note: Montenegro in the 2000s only got out of the state of the actual offshore.

The beginning of the economic boom, by a strange coincidence, was synchronized with the final division of the last post-Yugoslav association - the Union of Serbia and Montenegro (SIC). The opposition, which lost by a very small margin of votes, accused the leader of the republic, Djukanovic, of dishonestly organizing a referendum on the independence of the republic at the expense of Russian business money. Russia recognized the results of the referendum first.

At the same time, the leader of the ruling party, Milo Djukanovic, held successful negotiations with Russian oligarchs, including Oleg Deripaska, as a result of which the Podgorica Aluminum Plant (KAP) was sold for 65 million euros. In addition to Deripaska, other Russians also appeared in Montenegro: the names of Luzhkov, the Baturins, Polonsky, Khodorkovsky's team and others are mentioned in the local press. Montenegro is an ideal place for negotiations: the same Deripaska meets Rothschild on a yacht, the yachts of Roman Abramovich and Andrey Melnichenko regularly appear. There are countless smaller figures from Russia in Montenegro.

In interstate relations, everything developed perfectly at first. Milo Djukanovic traveled to Sochi, to Bocharov Ruchey, to personally confirm to President Putin his commitment to the pro-Kremlin course. And Russian business is starting to invest in the country's infrastructure.

Sicilian Defense

In the meantime, the Italian prosecutor confirmed the existence of a criminal case against the prime minister - the president (rotation of posts is in vogue!) Djukanovic. According to prosecutor Giuseppe Schelzi, there are two proven episodes of cigarette smuggling involving the Montenegrin leader, and the indictment, consisting of 409 pages, is ready for consideration at any time. But the criminal case was suspended due to the politician's diplomatic immunity (but not terminated), although the prosecutor considers Djukanovic the main boss of the Balkan mafia. Be that as it may, Djukanovic was on a solid hook.

Djukanovic is a charismatic politician from the Tito Komsomol members, and they were ready to turn a blind eye to his pranks with the underground business in Russia. For the pragmatist Milo himself, Russia is an excellent cover, and its territory is the only place (apart from China) where the hands of Western intelligence services do not reach. Moreover, the still uninvestigated deaths of opposition journalists and publicists did not particularly worry either the West or Russia. And let the opposition make noise about the sale of both the aluminum plant to Deripaska and the Zavala park for development to Polonsky, allegedly at a lower price, and about the supposedly existing hidden amounts of transactions (for the first - about a quarter of a billion euros, for the second - 40 million).

However, in Russia they underestimated Djukanovic's dependence on his past sins and the Western investigation, especially since the voter cannot be deceived endlessly, especially at a time when unemployment and poverty are covering the republic.

Kem parish? Take away!

When the ruling party of Montenegro announced plans for Euro-Atlantic integration, no one in Russia understood anything at first. Ambassador Yakov Gerasimov said that Russia does not really want NATO, but respects the choice of the Montenegrin people.

Further more. Djukanovic refused to fulfill his obligations to individual Russian investors. A trip to Putin with an attempt to explain himself ended only with a three-hour wait in the reception room of the Russian president. The prime minister was given to understand that they were not going to tolerate an unreliable partner.

The new Russian ambassador, Andrey Nesterenko, speaks out more decisively: Russia respects the choice of the people, expressed in a legal way - that is, without a referendum, in any way. And Podgorica was filled with anti-Russian banners, a diplomatic war of notes broke out. Nesterenko almost ended up on the presidium of one of the emigrant organizations of Russians, whose members justified the need for a coup in Russia, and the ambassador was recalled.

A completely new ambassador - Sergei Gritsai - is known only for one thing: he is not heard or seen. So in the end, no diplomatic course of Russia in Montenegro happened. Which entailed financial risks for the ten thousandth Russian diaspora. The money of both multimillionaires and teachers with an apartment for a life in retirement was at risk. And now the lawsuits against Deripaska's aluminum plant and Polonsky's Mirax Group residential complex are starting.

Both entrepreneurs had problems with the Montenegrin government. In the case of Mirax, the story was reminiscent of a classic raider takeover: now the Polonsky complex is managed by the Dukley Gardens company, headed by a US citizen, the builder of NATO bases, Naum Emilfarb. And the declared amount of compensation to Deripaska is just 300 million, which coincides with the amount of the “invisible part” of the deal being discussed on the sidelines. Only it will not be Djukanovic who will have to pay it, but the pre-bankrupt government of Montenegro (despite the golden rain from Russia, the government managed to drive the republic into debt to international banks for almost two annual budgets).

Sit down

Political and economic bargaining did not enter the public space for a long time - until the NATO secretaries general visited Montenegro, and then the British Prince Charles came. Europe accurately noticed a weak point: Russia has no guarantees for powerful investments, it is possible to win back positions.

2015 The height of the political crisis around the Crimea and Ukraine. Montenegro is suddenly made an observer in NATO and promised full membership (with a weak protest from Merkel and a number of other European leaders who consider the Montenegrin leader Djukanovic an outright swindler).

Meanwhile, Russian investment in construction and tourism (due to the crisis) fell catastrophically. Mass protests began, which were accompanied by violent crackdowns with armored vehicles and tear gas - the winter of 2015-2016 turned out to be stormy. Rumors circulated in blogs: Prime Minister Djukanovic spent more than a day on a plane with a crew - he was preparing to flee, but all countries except Britain refused to accept the plane.

Prime Minister Djukanovic has moved into open confrontation with Russia, stating in an interview that he will not change course towards joining NATO. It is easy to explain this position: the Russian side, investing money in Montenegro, was playing for an increase, and here an effective game for a fall is planned, suggesting the possibility for the same British to buy for a penny what the Russians set up.

And Montenegro supports European sanctions against Russia. Russia responds with ignorance and statements by the Foreign Ministry: about the need to still hold a referendum and about the inadequate use of force in dispersing protests.

Return move

And then the Montenegrin coffee houses whispered: is it really true? Yes, it was confirmed: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu unexpectedly arrives on a private plane. The meeting with the prime minister was short, at a private villa. It is not known what arguments were presented, but, apparently, Djukanovic had a pale appearance.

The prime minister's party also got into trouble: the politicians expressed their desire to negotiate with the opposition to change the head of government.

After Shoigu (already on a public private visit), Sergei Lavrov arrives from Russia. The Minister of Foreign Affairs took a ride on a yacht and held many negotiations, the essence of which is: let the people of Montenegro decide the fate of the premiership and Euro-Atlantic integration in a referendum.

October 2016, parliamentary elections in Montenegro. The opposition parties managed to unite into an anti-premier bloc - the Democratic Front - and miraculously, having an individual rating of no more than 3%, together came up to 60% of the vote. The turnout in the elections reached 74%. The local press writes that help from Russia has finally arrived for the opposition.

The elections were held with powerful administrative pressure: civil servants reported on the votes cast, tribal clans put pressure on their members, blogs were flooded with videos of violations, voter bribery was recorded, free charters for Montenegrins living in Italy ... But nothing helped. Exit polls predicted a crushing defeat for the ruling party.

Show bad actors

The time has come for the Prime Minister's last reserve - provocations. The former head of the Serbian gendarmerie, Branislav Dikić, was ready: he had been caught on many occasions in informal contacts with Prime Minister Djukanovic. And twenty people of "military" appearance, together with Dikich, were arrested on the night of the vote count. Those arrested unanimously gave confessions (the Serbian media write about a fee of one hundred thousand euros for self-incrimination), and the official authorities immediately announced the uncovered terrorist attack. Literally on the same day, another stuffing followed - about the Russian trace. Allegedly, the Kremlin sent as many as 20 brave Serbs, from whose weapons they found a couple of “cryptophones (!)“ Iota ”.

In total, according to the prosecutor of Montenegro, Milivoje Katnich, the participation of countless legions of putschists was expected - 60 people. A few days later, the prosecutor presented new material evidence: a photo of some corridors littered with ammunition, which is available in any warehouse of the uniform of OMON, SOBR or SWAT - with such equipment, the “terrorists” would be capable of a fight in a disco, but not to seize power .

However, the effect of stuffing was realized: it diverted attention from direct vote-rigging, and as a result, the ruling party, contrary to objective polls, gave itself up to 20 percent of votes, beating the opposition by a couple of seats in parliament.

As for the fate of Djukanovic, it is unlikely that anyone will be interested in it in six months. Another important question remains: can Russia build its foreign policy in the Balkans in such a way that it gains trust, especially since attempts to cooperate with such dubious politicians as Djukanovic do not add this trust?

Veniamin Striga —
especially for the new