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Andrey Kolesnikov, Moscow Center of Carnegie

Russian elites are paralyzed by fear. But now they realized where the source uncomfortable state is

As a result of the scandal with the arrest of the ex-head of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Alexei Ulyukaev ( continuation of the topic- coup-2016. Attempt No. 1 ), the Russian authorities did not decisively suffer any image losses. But this is in the eyes of the Pro -Putin majority, who likes the “fight against corruption”, especially when it is being conducted against the “liberals”. And representatives of the elites - political, bureaucratic, entrepreneurial, - having analyzed the Fabula “Ulyukaev’s affairs”, understood only one thing: the first person, the country's president Vladimir Putin, is in strange dependence on the opinions and actions of the head of Rosneft and his longtime colleague since the time of work in the St. Petersburg City Hall Igor Sechin, he is “real Igor Ivanovich” (unlike the “inappropriate”, that is, that is, that is, Less "hawk" Igor Ivanovich Shuvalov).

The elites are paralyzed by fear. But now they have realized where the source of their uncomfortable state is. Vladimir Putin, of course, from time to time frams the plebs even his long-standing colleagues, such as the ex-head of customs Andrei Belleininov. But it turns out, not everything is in the power of the first person: it seems like he was unhappy that the contents of the cabinets of the customs king and boxes of shoes with dollars showed the whole light. Somehow various organs began to take too many initiatives. But no one takes them so much and so far-packed as Sechin.

He constantly shows everyone - from the media that he is trying to ruin to members of the highest state establishment in operational development - who is the master here. Putin himself hardly does not notice this. But so far he is mysteriously putting up with the situation that the Prime Minister designated as “beyond the grade of understanding”.

But how to really understand the fact that Rosneft almost takes on the functions of the investigating authorities and allows itself to stop the careers of government members, initiate surveillance of the Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Assistant President? It turns out that among those who usually sit at the meetings on the economy in the Kremlin office of Putin, almost half under the cap of the FSB and the Investigative Committee. It is logical then to assume: or maybe the prime minister, and is scary to utter, the president in “development”?

A joke of the New Age: “You called Rosneft. If you have an asset and you want to sell it, press the star. If you have an asset, but you do not want to sell it, press the grill. ”

Sechin imposes fear, and very successfully. Once, as is commonly believed, he played a key role in the process, which became educational for the whole business, in the divorce of Yukos. Now he arranged an educational process for the entire highest state bureaucracy.

However, hardly all elites are ready to put up with such a situation and fall into a trap, which was placed by Ulyukaev. Soft resistance seems to have already begun. Putin himself, while on a business trip, almost 20 minutes spoke about something in a car with the head of Lukoil Vagit Alekperov. Yes, this meeting took place before the arrest of the Minister of Economic Development. But it seems that Putin thought about the need to reduce at least the business of Sechin even before the events with Ulyukaev. And after the events, the Lukoil spokesman began an open war-so far with the press secretary of Rosneft, Mikhail Leontyev, using his branded style-an abrupt language of hatred.

It turns out that among those who usually sit at the meetings on the economy in the Kremlin office of Putin, almost half under the cap of the FSB and the Investigative Committee. It is logical then to assume: or maybe the prime minister, and is scary to utter, the president in “development”?

Of course, all the elites - frightened, weak, surrendered - will help Putin choose for the next period in 2018. However, remembering that the first person-a figure under the excessive influence of a philologist-novelist, a former employee of the presidential office-they can begin to prepare an elite conspiracy. And what is it-they need to somehow survive. There is time: in this situation, Putin will be a lame duck for six years, from the day of inauguration. In order to avoid losses after 2024, elites will have to begin to negotiate another conventional figure. Without paying too much attention to the main - guarantees of Putin’s personal security after the end of the next presidential term.

Moreover, these sentiments are inevitable in all elites, including diverse power. If Putin did not show his weakness before Sechin, they would probably have continued to show absolute loyalty. And it’s not necessary to be afraid of something ... what can we say about the elites of liberal or conditionally liberal. In fact, who can show loyalty to Putin, so they are: fighting with Sechin, you need to use such a gun as the current president. Wanting to realize at least some reforms, it is necessary to put on Putin-Sechin, who hated not only Medvedev, but also, more serious, Alexei Kudrin, will resist any “strategies in 2018–2024”.

Well, it will be a glorious hunt. Behind the facet of understanding. With pressing stars and gratings. But now one thing is clear: the monolith of elites is the completed stage.

The New Times collage