Realpolitik in Caucasian style

On November 17, RIA Novosti circulated an interview with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, in which he confirmed that Russia had supplied Iskander operational-tactical missile systems to this country.

In addition, Sargsyan admitted that a joint Russian-Armenian military group is being created.

We should pay tribute to the Armenian President. He did not begin to breed diplomatic tours about allied relations between the two states, but extremely frankly described the role of Moscow in the Transcaucasus: “We have an agreement with Russia on maintaining a balance of power in the region. I think Russia, proceeding from this, met our request and provided us with this militarily excellent system. The head of Armenia recalled that in recent years Azerbaijan has been purchasing a fairly large number of the latest weapons (Sargsyan tactfully did not say that Moscow sold most of these weapons, including, for example, the latest air defense systems). Armenia does not have such financial opportunities, and therefore, Iskander operational-tactical missiles serve, according to Sargsyan, as an excellent “antidote” to Azerbaijani military power.

Moscow supplied Armenia with Iskanders, its latest operational-tactical missiles. But until recently, the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, stated that the Iskander, which is a potential carrier of nuclear weapons, was banned for export.

It seems that we found ourselves in the XIX century, when the British Empire supplied weapons to various Indian rulers, skillfully opposing them to each other and thus achieving their own goals. Moscow sells weapons to Azerbaijan and delivers them to Armenia on more than favorable terms, paying for the provision of the only Russian outpost in the Transcaucasus - the base in Gyumri.

This is an extremely risky game. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Therefore, Russia is obliged to immediately act on its side in the event of a military conflict with Azerbaijan. Moreover, a few years ago, Moscow gave an obligation to protect the integrity of the Armenian borders along their entire perimeter. While a military conflict between Baku and Yerevan is not completely out of the question - in April of this year, the parties were on the verge of a major war - it is rather difficult to imagine that Moscow will send troops to fight on the Armenian side against Azerbaijan. Obviously, such a war would be the collapse of Russian policy not only in the Transcaucasus, but throughout the CIS. Refusal to fulfill allied obligations would lead to an inevitable crisis in relations with other members of the CSTO.

However, even in the conditions of a frozen conflict, Moscow is quite limited in its means of maintaining a balance: it cannot offer serious economic projects to the parties. Arms deliveries are perhaps the only instrument of influence. But here, too, the possibilities are not endless. So, in order to balance the potential of the weapons sold to Azerbaijan, Moscow supplied Armenia with Iskanders, its latest operational-tactical missiles. But until recently, the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, stated that the Iskander, which is a potential carrier of nuclear weapons, was banned for export. It remains to be recalled that, according to the press, the Iskanders transferred to Armenia were put on high alert during the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh that flared up this April. Moscow’s Caucasian realpolitik may end up with opposing sides destroying each other with the most modern Russian-made weapons…