The first among the right

The winner of the first round of the first French policy of the primaries of the right-wing opposition was the ex-prime minister Francois Fiion-44% of the vote.

Alain Juppe, also an ex-prime minister, who, as the main favorite of the primaries, preferred hundreds of polls, took second place with 26.7% of the vote. Now Fiion and Juppe will meet in the second round on November 27. Ex -President Nicolas Sarkozy, who showed the Third Rauchet - 22.9% - dropped out of further struggle. According to the results of the second round, the main opposition force - the Republican party - will choose a single candidate and, possibly, the main contender for the post of president of the republic, the next elections of which will be held in the spring of 2017.

50 shades of the right

Any politician could nominate their candidacy for preliminary elections of the Republicans. The participants needed a simple formality: to declare the commitment of legal assets and promise to submit to the voting results, that is, in the event of a defeat, not to exhibit his candidacy in the presidential election, but to support a single candidate - the winner of the primaries. The principle of openness also applies to voters - in order to vote on the primaries, it is not necessary to be in the right party, it is enough to sign a symbolic charter about their commitment to legal assets and sacrifice two euros for the costs of the organization.

However, in fact, the primaries of the “right and centrist forces” remain the internal elections of the Republican party - six of the seven candidates are members of the party, while five were members of the government in the era of the presidency of Nikolai Sarkozy.

Today, former government colleagues will not skimp on criticism of each other and their former chef. Sarkozy, in turn, does not get tired of reminding that when they worked with him in the government, they completely agree with the reforms that are now criticizing, and sometimes even offered them themselves.

In order to vote on the primaries, it is not necessary to be in the right batch, it is enough to sign a symbolic charter about their commitment to legal assets and sacrifice Euro 2 for the costs of organizing

Candidates are similar not only by a past political career, but also by programs: to introduce annual quotas for reception of migrants; revise the rules for providing citizenship, in particular, the principle of reunification of families; initiate negotiations on the revision of the Schengen agreements; abandon the 35-hour working week; increase the retirement age to 65 years; to abolish the tax on wealth (which is levied in France with property worth over Euro 1.3 million); introduce a regressive system of unemployment benefits; simplify the procedure for dismissing employees; To increase the number of police officers and create several tens of thousands of new places in prisons - that’s what, the main points of the pre -election programs of candidates for right -hand primaries.

“ On the election slogans of the right, one could arrange the game“ Find 10 differences, ”the elderly Frenchwoman Florence, selling vegetables in one of the Parisian markets. - I am a little disappointed, it seems that our politicians are completely torn from reality. I looked at the candidate television and the impression that they live in another world. ”

Polls brought up ...

Surveys of public opinion gave the victory to the former Prime Minister of the Presidistance of Jacques Shirak, and now the mayor of the city of Bordeaux Alen Juppe. According to sociological studies conducted by the ElaBE agency by the order of the L'Opinion newspaper and the BFM-TV TV channel, although he lost five percentage points over the past two weeks before the primaries, he nevertheless left the winner in the first round with a result of 34%. In addition to him, in the second round, according to polls, ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy with 30% of the vote was held. The leaders also confidently kept Fiion in the top three - in recent weeks his rating grew confidently and reached 21%. As you can see, sociologists were mistaken.

By the way, according to polls, the Sarcosi support rating is traditionally higher among the supporters of the Republican party, while the most popular politician is 71-year-old Juppe, which seems to the French the most compromise for the post of head of state. Over the past 30 years, Juppe managed to change almost a dozen ministerial seats, to visit the deputy, party leader and head of government. Together with Jacques Shirak, he was one of the founders of the main party of the French right -wing “Union for the People’s Movement”, renamed in 2015 on the initiative of Nicolas Sarkozy to the Republicans. At the same time, Juppe always manages, defending his political principles, to show restraint and moderation in public speeches, which favorably distinguishes him from the ex-president, who periodically shocking the public with shocking statements.

Sociological surveys have read a juppe confident victory in the second round of the primaries with a result of 56% (according to the BVA public opinion Institute) to 59% of the vote (ELABE survey) if his rival was Sarkuzi. At the same time, “if the ex -Prime Minister Francois Fiion still succeeds in second place following the results of the first round, in the second round the victory is harvested, no matter who was his competitor - Juppe or Sarkozy” - this was stated in his forecast published on November 15 on the ATLANTICO website, the Opinionway agency. Now, after the victory of Fiion in the first round, according to this forecast, he will inevitably leave the second.

“Such primaries among the right are held for the first time,” explains the New Times, political analyst Nicolas Temiser, director of the Center for the Study of Political Activities, “they are open to any candidates and voters. Therefore, there can be any surprises. We do not know who will decide to vote and what motives voters are guided by. But we see that about 9% of voters who previously traditionally voted behind the left speak of intention to participate in these primaries. ”

“If the ex -Prime Minister Francois Fiion still manages to be in second place according to the results of the first round, in the second round the victory of him is garbage, no matter how his competitor - Juppe or Sarkozy,” stated in his forecast, published on November 15 on the ATLANTICO website, the Opinionway Agency

The French and the French of moderately left -wing views also took part in the vote - disappointed with the board of the socialists, they do not believe in the re -election of Hollande and thereby try to prevent the “worst” - the return to the Champs Elysees of Nikolai Sarkuzi. Perhaps their voices also contributed to his defeat in the first round. It was not busted by Sarkozi himself called the “theft” the participation of the left in the right -wing primaries.

No less concern is the desire to vote on right -wing primaries among the leadership of the social party. The victory on the primaries following the seconds of the Jupppe tour, which enjoys both the right and the left, will certainly put an end to the second time of the president-socialist. Therefore, in the last days, before the primaries of the “Republicans”, the Socialist Party launched a special campaign under the slogan: “The danger on the right!”, In order to expose the “authoritarian and unfair” policy of the right and to dissuade the left -handed voters in the “alien” primaries.

Right and Russia

As for the foreign policy program of the French right, for the first time in many years, Russia is almost a central place in the election agenda. Almost all applicants for the Champs Elysees spoke about the role of Russia in Syria, about the possibility of lifting or the need to strengthen the sanctions, about the belonging of Crimea and the Minsk agreements on the Donbass.

Traditionally, Francois Fiion is called the main “Putinophil” among the French moderate right. The weekly L'Express recalled the call of Putin’s newly chosen on his third presidential term by Fiion, who was then resigned from the post of prime minister. Having postponed the troubles of the inauguration, Putin was sympathetically interested in the former colleague (Fiion and Putin were at the same time for four years of government) about plans for the future after the defeat of the sarcose in the elections. It was Fillon that the Kremlin owner invited the cottage to his Moscow Region in 2013. In the same 2013, in the status of an expert, Fillon spoke to the guests of the Valdai club. It is not surprising that Francois Fillon was the first to disappoint the abolition of Putin’s visit to Paris in October 2016. And in the group of support for Fiion on the primaries, deputies Nicolas Devik and Thierry Mariani, who twice driving at the invitation of Moscow to the Crimea are listed.

With no less reverence, although with greater caution about Vladimir Putin, the former head of the state of Nicolas Sarkozy is also expressed. As well as Fiion, after his defeat in the elections in 2012, Sarkozy came to Russia more than once, where we were always accepted at the highest level. The Kremlin quoted the passages of the former (and possibly the future) president that "Crimea himself chose Russia", that sanctions must be canceled, and "the vocation of Ukraine has never been an entry into the EU." During the last trip to Russia in June 2016, Sarkozy’s Economic Economic Forum diplomatically went around all the acute questions about the status of Crimea and Russian aggression in the Donbass, telling about “real friends”, who come precisely then, “when everything is bad”, and promised to “fight” to prevent the Cold War.

It was Fillon that the Kremlin owner invited the cottage to his Moscow Region in 2013. In the same 2013, in the status of an expert, Fillon spoke to the guests of the Valdai club. It is not surprising that Francois Fillon was the first to be disappointed with the abolition of Putin's visit to Paris in October 2016

The real “dissident” in this camp of “Putinophiles” is still the leader of the election ratings by Alain Juppe. Remaining in tough positions on the issue of the status of Crimea and the correctness of sanctions against Moscow, he recognizes the need for dialogue and criticizes Hollande for “inaccurate” in diplomacy. “Russia is a great country, but at a certain moment you must not be afraid to say to Putin:“ Stop ”. We do not annex the neighbors, ”said Juppe in April 2015. “If Putin came to France, and we would have met, I would tell him about it. France should never close the opportunity for dialogue with Russia. We cannot break with Putin, we cannot start a new Cold War, ”Juppe outlined his position during the debate of the right.

“Alain Juppe adheres, let's say, classical discourse, speaking in defense of republican values, clearly indicating his position in Russia and Syria. Francois Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy play a strange game, declaring, for example, that a new possible alliance between Trump and Putin would be a good solution. Such a rhetoric hardly finds understanding among the right -centric democratic electorate. Here we can rather talk about flirting with the extreme right -wing voters of the National Front, ”said political scientist Nicolas Tenzer.

From left to right

After a preliminary vote, the right intrigue will become who will compete with the candidate “Republicans” on the left. It still remains in the question of whether the current socialist president Francois Hollande will put forward his candidacy for a second term. Holland promised to declare his decision in December.

The intrigue and who announced in mid-November about his intention to compete for the presidential post, the charismatic ex-minister of economics, Emmanuel Macron, warmed up. Macron, who left the Socialist Government, created his own political movement called En Marche!, Which can be translated from French as “Forward!”. The former banker of the banking group of the Rothschilds calls the outdated division into “right” and “left” and hopes to unite all the French.

It still remains in the question of whether the current socialist president Francois Hollande will put forward his candidacy for a second term. Holland promised to announce his decision in December

Perhaps the only candidate who has never made secrets from his desire to become president is the leader of the French nationalists Marin Le Pen. The head of the extreme right “National Front” is already leading the election campaign and all polls guarantee her access to the second round.