Will the next Brexit be in Italy?

Constitutional reform of Matteo Renzi in questions and answers

On December 4, a referenda dedicated to constitutional reform will be held in Italy. The Prime Minister of Matteo Renzi brought to the vote the issue of centralization of power-according to him, for effective management of the country, the government should receive much more powers. Critics of the reform say that it will lead to the establishment of authoritarianism in Italy, supporters warn that its failure will lead to a political and economic crisis and even to the country's exit from the EU. Medusa talks about constitutional reform and what the Italian referendum can end.

1. What happens in Italy?

Italy is the third largest eurozone economy, and recently - the main threat to its existence. In recent years, the economy has stagnated, GDP per capita has not grown since the late 1990s, and the size of external debt reaches 133 percent of GDP. Against this background, political instability is strengthened, which is generally characteristic of Italy: since 1945, 65 governments have changed in the country, that is, on average, the government has been holding in power in Italy for about a year. In addition, distrust of the current authorities naturally grows and the positions of populist movements are strengthened. So, in the regional elections in June 2016, the “Movement of the Five Stars”, founded by the popular comedian Beppe Grillo and protruding from the eurozone, received the majority in the city self -government of Rome and Turin.

2. What did Matteo Renzi plan?

The current Prime Minister Matteo Renci believes that in order to overcome the economic and banking crisis, as well as to combat the migration crisis and, in general, the centralization of power is necessary for more effective management of the country. In particular, it is necessary to eliminate the formal equality of the two chambers of the parliament, which complicates the adoption of laws. The Prime Minister proposes to carry out constitutional reform, as a result of which the upper house of the Italian parliament-the Senate-will lose most of the powers: 315 elected senators will be replaced by 100 appointed ones, which, moreover, will not be able to endure the distrust of the prime minister’s distrust. In addition, the lower house of deputies will be formed according to the majority system (guaranteeing the majority of the party won in the elections) and will be able to adopt laws, even if the Senate voted against. Parts of powers will also lose regional administrations.

3. What is the meaning of the reform?

According to Matteo Renzi, the centralization of the authorities will put an end to political instability, overcome the paralysis of power institutions and conduct transformations that will revive the economy and save Italy from the financial crisis, retaining the largest banks, the shares of which fall due to a significant increase in loans insanity . Renzi said that in the event of a loss, he would resign. In some ways, this is blackmail: the government’s resignation is guaranteed to lead to early elections, market collapse and even greater political and economic destabilization. Critics of the reform believe that in case of success, the Prime Minister (that is, Renzi) will concentrate in his hands too broad powers. Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called the Referendum proposed by Renzi "direct way to rejection of democracy." According to The Economist, constitutional reform is also bad in that it does not solve the fundamental problems of Italy (corruption and unwillingness to change), creating the threat of authoritarianism.

4. Italians will support the reform?

According to most polls, the population of Italy is more opposed to the reforms proposed by Matteo Renzi: a little more than 40 percent are going to vote against his proposals, about 36. The number of induced Italians is gradually declining, but remains significant: a week before the referendum, about a quarter of the respondents did not make the decision. According to the forecasts of the newspaper Corriere Della Sera, on December 4, 55 percent of Italians will vote against reforms, 45 for.

5. What will happen if Renzi loses?

It is difficult to predict this, but most observers are pessimistic. Along with the already mentioned economic recession and the political crisis, it is worth expecting a financial crisis: the collapse of markets can lead to the bankruptcy of the eight largest banks in Italy. Conducting early elections against the background of the growth of the popularity of the "Movement of the Five Star" can lead to a sharp increase in the position of populists in parliament. The leaders of the movement have already promised that in case of coming to power, they would hold a referendum on the withdrawal of Italy from the euro zone.

6. Well, Brexit will be?

This is unlikely. Firstly, in the case of a failure of the referendum, Matteo Renzi may refuse to resign. Secondly, even if Renzi leaves, and the “movement of the five stars” will receive the majority in early elections, it is unlikely that populists will be able to form a government. Thirdly, even if the issue of withdrawal from the eurozone will be submitted to the referendum, it will hardly support the population: according to current polls, only 15.2 percent of Italians are configured against a single currency, while 67.4 percent support the euro. Fourth, the exit from the eurozone does not mean the exit from the European Union-although, of course, each such story becomes a test of strength for the EU.