Translated material
Receps gathered on a hike
"The Armed Forces of Turkey entered the territory of Syria to put an end to the rule of Tiran Assad." This statement by Turkish President Recep Erdogan, made on the eve of Istanbul at a conference on Palestine's problems, many were regarded as a direct declaration of war to the ruling Syrian regime.
Users of social networks immediately decided that the notorious Turkish knife, which Vladimir Putin spoke of after an attack on the Russian fighter a year ago, was again brought over Russian back - because Moscow openly supports Assad and its allies in Syria.
Every year in November, Redzhepp Erdogan, by tradition, pierces the knife into the back of Vladimir Putin.
- PERZIAN ROSISI (@Kermlinrussia) November 29, 2016
Earlier, Erdogan argued that the only goal of the terrestrial operation of the Turkish troops in Syria that began in August is the destruction of militants prohibited in many countries of the Islamic State group. Experts have repeatedly noted that this is only one of the goals - in addition to her, Erdogan wants to prevent the creation of an independent Kurdish state in the territories liberated from Islamists. One way or another, there was no talk of the direct orientation of Turkey’s actions against Bashar al -Assad - although Türkiye did not hide the support that it provides for the Syrian armed opposition to the Eastern Aleppo detachments.
However, since August, the situation in the region’s torn war has changed somewhat - how the situation in the world political arena has changed.
In the last days of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Government Army, several regions of the Eastern Aleppo controlled by the rebels occupied . The only narrow corridor through which the Syrian armed opposition can receive support from Turkey is extremely unreliable for the supply of weapons and products, as it is under constant shelling of the Syrian Arab Army. Under these conditions, Turkish support can become a critical factor for the besieged in Aleppo. The question is how far Erdogan is ready to go in their support from Syrian opposition detachments and whether the Turkish army has forces for this.
Marter of hostilities in Syria as of the end of November:
As the director of the Center for Analysis of the Middle Eastern Conflicts of the Institute of the USA and Canada, Alexander Shumilin , should be carefully treated with the formidable statements of Recep Erdogan. Firstly, no new invasion of the Turkish troops into the Syrian territory has yet occurred-the main forces of the Turkish army are still focused on the fight against the militants of the Islamic State in the areas of Syria. Secondly, the words of the Turkish president are largely aimed at the internal audience. On the other hand, the expert believes, Turkey is really not averse to strengthening its military presence in the Aleppo area, and not just in the Kurdish areas occupied by the Islamic State - in order to have the best “starting capital” in the event of a potential post -war section of Syria.
-Many yesterday took Erdogan’s words as a message that Türkiye was introducing some new troops into Syria and was going to almost go to Aleppo march. Is this so, or is it about the same military formations that have been involved in the operation "Euphrates" from the end of summer?
-It was more or less to clear up in the morning, when it turned out that really new troops were not introduced. But in the direction of the actions of the contingent, which is included in the operation "Euphrates Shield", there were changes. His movement was indicated in the south-west (in the direction of Aleppo.-RS) . True, these troops are hardly enough to overthrow Assad. So, we must tolerate at least today to see what addition to this contingent will receive if this movement does not stop.
- Why did Erdogan decide to make such a statement right now? Is this an accident or a calculation?
- No, this is not an accident, everything is very clear, tough and understandable. The reason is to change the situation around Aleppo. A breakthrough [Assad’s troops] entails serious consequences in the form of the destruction of the anti -Asadi front. Not one -time, not momentary, but gradual destruction and strengthening of a radical element, a radical trend, radical strategies. This is dangerous - for Turkey, first of all, for all countries of the region in the second, for the whole world - in the third. This is the first circumstance. The second important consideration for Erdogan is that the solution of its problem to prevent the creation of the Kurdish state on the border with Turkey in the case of strengthening the Assad regime becomes unfulfilled, because then the anti -Turkish element in the Kurdish community will prevail with powerful rear support by Assad. And in the future, Erdogan will be more difficult to cope with the immediate threat in the form of a Kurdish state education. The third consideration, of course, is the image order. Turkey is one of the two leading countries in the Islamic coalition against Assad, and if Saudi Arabia went into the shadows, then Erdogan could not afford to do this, first of all to Islamic states - to fulfill his obligations to save the Syrian people, to eliminate Assad. And how it will be realized, this is a different aspect.
While the United States hibernated and fainted, Russia continues to act
All this occurs in conditions of complete paralysis of the global level. While the United States hibernated and fainted, Russia continues to act, albeit more cautious methods, but realizing its exit strategy for more favorable positions for possible future negotiations, which, of course, will not be. Therefore, Erdogan with his statement outlined concern, outlined the existence of this strategy, which seems to be forgotten and holds defeat under the bombs of Assad and Russia. This is an Assad overthrow strategy, a strategy for building Syria without Assad. There are, of course, still domestic political considerations - to switch from a terrible situation within Turkey to an external factor. All this prompted him to make this statement. The question is how it will be supported by practical steps.
- Yesterday in social networks there was a new surge in posts with Putin’s famous phrase about the “knife in the back”. What happens, the knife is again brought over the same back? I mean a clash of interests of Russia and Turkey because of Assad.
- Not quite so. In fact, the question is raised as follows: how real is the risk of a collision with Russia? It is unlikely in the current situation, taking into account the experience of confrontation and hostility. This will rather be a confrontation by a carefully verified calculation, based on the preservation of communication lines. But this is if it comes to the confrontation, or maybe not to reach. To date, there is no evidence of Erdogan.
Erdogan sent the army to overthrow Assad. Again, Putin was stuck on the New Year. Buy the tangerines, now they will begin to prohibit them and crush them
- Stalingulag (@stalingulag) November 29, 2016
- If we fantasize and think about Erdogan’s statement in the context of a certain unspoken preparation for Syria after the end of the war - whether his words mean that Turkey claims not only to the border areas of Syria, where she does not want to create a Kurdish state, that she is not only going to preserve a certain protectorate that are inhabited by Syrian Turkomans , but intended Push the Assad even further, making Aleppo a kind of outpost, a kind of airbag on the outskirts of his borders?
- As an option, such a scenario exists, and it is natural. But I think that the maximum task is to remove Assad from power. If not a direct invasion of Turkey, then by mobilizing primarily the countries that Erdogan appeals to today, to the regional powers that make up the Islamic Front against Assad. "Wake up, let's act in the face of the already begun tragedy, turn away a little from your Yemen, turn towards Syria!" -Somewhere it must be understood. But if the protection of Assad will work as decisively, maybe it really will result in the dominance of the Syria section plan. And then Turkey will also be in sufficiently strong positions with expanded army units in Syria to ensure the necessary parameters of the zone that it would like to control with the purpose of which you talked about is the prevention of the creation of the Kurdish state and the non -proliferation of the influence of Assad on the areas bordering with Turkey.
- You said about the “hibernation” in America, obviously, referring to the transition period of transfer of power from one president to another. How sharply and dramatically the situation around Syria can change, when it becomes clear what position in relation to this state is going to adhere to Donald Trump?
- Now the vectors in the USA are quite opposite. If Trump gave messages in one direction, conditionally Pro-Pra-Russian, playing on this, gathering some voices, then most of the people who are designed to formulate the strategy of the Trump administration during its final approval, think directly opposite categories. With the exception of, perhaps, General Flynn . The rest, as far as I know, clearly expressed a position opposite to Trump. There is a game around Trump. The task of Russia and Putin is now, apparently, to cross some sharp problematic lines related to bloodshed, confrontation, a fracture of the situation, so that this is associated with the Obama administration. This will enable Trump to start with a new sheet, by no means clean, but a new sheet. Then Trump will be able to say that the situation, of course, is catastrophic, but this is all Obama, and then we will come from new realities. These new realities are now actively interrupted by Assad and Putin, primarily around Aleppo.
- And Erdogan, presumably, too.
- Erdogan is just opposing these realities. Yes, of course, he is trying to become a player, but with the opposite vector of actions, ”says Alexander Shumilin .
The Russian authorities to the words of Erdogan about the intention to overthrow the regime of Bashar al -Assad reacted with restraint. The representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, noted that the words of the Turkish leader are not a direct quote and were not said under the record. The press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov called Erdogan’s statement “serious” and once again emphasized that the Russian army is the only armed force operating in Syria on a legal basis.