For honest elections

The author of The New Times watched in university cities of America a reaction of professors to the election of the president, which they did not expect, for whom they did not vote and whose coming to power feared

Yuri Saprykin, Monterey, California - Raly, North Carolina - Minneapolis, Minnesota - Moscow

OH My God ... Several solid men are facing a large screen and watch how the country's map is gradually covered with red. On the table, untouched wine bottles. The mobile calls, the girl on the other end of the line cries into the phone. Someone in the corner sings the song of the REM group-it's the end of the world as We Know it (“This is the end of the world that we know”). On the evening of November 8, when the USA was summed up in the USA, I ended up in the California city of Monteri, at a party where the local professor was going to celebrate Clinton's confident victory - but the wine remained untouched.

Trump wins in Florida. Trump wins in Ohio. Trump wins in Michigan, where the Republicans have not won since 1988. Let Trump win in the states where he should not win. The counter on The New York Times, which in the afternoon (as well as in all previous months) predicted Clinton’s victory with a 90 percent probability, sharply unfolds and gives out 95% for the fact that Trump would win. CPN commentators are close to saying something in the spirit of Yuri Karyakin-"America, you are fooled."

Deviant president

The shock from the victory of Trump is not only that it contradicts all sociological forecasts: in many respects, this event is from the category of "that-no-well-be." For the first time in many decades, a candidate who had not previously been elected to a public office has never worked in elected positions or ministerial positions (Reagan, for example, although by profession was an actor, was the governor of California before the president of the age of 8) and did not serve in the army. For the first time, perhaps, the candidate who built the campaign on rudeness and trolling won throughout American history, cursed with his opponents on Twitter, insulted entire categories of voters and, as it seemed, dropped his reputation to the level from which he could not rise. Large American media, for months, digging his unpaid taxes and sexist comments on the scenes, have hypnotized even Trump's supporters - it seems that his track record should be evidence of complete security. BLEF, bragging and fraud - it is ridiculous if you read about them in the news, but absolutely unacceptable if it comes to seriously conveying a nuclear button to a person. People who gathered to celebrate Hillary’s victory, sing about the end of the world, not because the candidate won with political views unacceptable to them: from their point of view, a person with the image and reputation, which, by definition, are incompatible with the presidential position; This is how to appoint a deputy Milonov as the director of the Bolshoi Theater.

From their point of view, a person with the image and reputation won, which, by definition, are incompatible with the presidential position; It’s all the same as appointing deputy Milonov as director of the Bolshoi Theater

My interlocutors ask if it seems to me that the actions of Russian hackers led to this victory - but they themselves are seriously not taking it, believing that this is one of the rhetorical exaggerations of the Heillari headquarters. The candidate, whose victory was going to celebrate today, is skeptical here: Bernie Sanders caused students a little with comparable enthusiasm, but after Clinton became a candidate, it was no longer possible to vote with his heart. Russian hackers, perhaps, did not play a decisive role in the victory of Trump - but all this is very similar to Russia. Leader-Charismatic, playing on conservative-patriotic moods. Media, rally around the liberal candidate. Black PR, information wars, plums and stuffing. The shaft of fake news that diverge on social networks is much more effective than the present. The puzzled faces of the elites gathered to the meeting of the "new political year." The day after the election, experts in the analytical program CNN Anderson Cooper 360 begin to yell at each other naturally - as in the program "A fight with Vladimir Solovyov." We are not used to, but for people brought up in a chopper, buttoned politics on all buttons, it really looks like the end of the world.

Who is to blame

The main difference that is felt at the household level is that the Americans are deeply indifferent to the Americans; Students and professors are experiencing Trump's victory as a personal tragedy. In the morning, they have to call psychologists in the campus - students are not able to study and do not understand how to live on. On the lawns near the houses there are not My President signs. In New York, next to Trump Tower, there are thousands of protest demonstrations, everything is quiet in our wilderness, but the mood is depressed. Again, as it was a few years ago in Russia, a liberal -minded intelligentsia suddenly discovers an incomprehensible, hostile country that votes exactly for what is categorically unacceptable to Hillary's electorate. “The problem is not that Trump promises to build a wall or send illegal immigrants,” says one of my interlocutors. - Most likely, they will not let him do it. The problem is that during the campaign he began to speak a language that was previously considered absolutely unacceptable and indecent, in the language of rudeness, trolling, disrespect for minorities. This divided the country in two, and this gap cannot be canceled. ”

Immediately after the elections, interested observers again have to solve purely Russian issues - who is to blame and what to do. The first conclusions of analysts, who claimed that Trump led the poor white workers to the victory are immediately refuted by more accurate sociological data: Trump has a great result among wealthy white, and even among Latin American or women with higher education (which, in theory, his campaign was supposed to insult) the figures are not so bad. It is logical to assume that sociologists are to blame; They could not predict the results and even more so were not able to formulate key issues, in relation to which voters would be shared. But local experts argue that the possible inaccuracies of sociology could be predicted in advance: the population in America is monstrously tired of polls with which each roadside dasket climbs, the share of those who refused to answer questions reaches 90%, what conclusions can be drawn from the study of such a sample (and why everyone is so seriously relate to them) - God news. Another object of universal irritation is Mark Zuckerberg; Facebook, from which more than 40% of Americans learn about the news, did not learn how to filter fake news; Users exchange them even more actively than ordinary, confirmed, as a result, by the middle of the campaign, active FB users found themselves in the illusory world, where Trump's candidacy nominated almost directly the Roman pope, and half a dozen criminal cases were already hanging on Hillary. Tsuckerberg is still fighting off, arguing that the only way to defeat this problem is to further improve the algorithm that forms user news tape, and from his point of view he is right, but journalists whose work is clogged with a stream of fakes, this does not convince.

Program for tomorrow

A few days later I move from south to north, to the city of Minneapolis, and during this time the educated audience manages to move from anger and denial to acceptance - and, in fact, to clarify the issue of “what to do”. "We must work!" - They tell each other at a dinner of professor of the local college. - We must unite! Ethnic community in the field should defend their rights! ” The anti-gun march of women is being prepared, which they are going to spend in Washington the day after Trump's inauguration, January 20, 2017 (how can you not recall May 6, 2012)-126 thousand people have already signed up on the march on Facebook, and there are several such pages, for example, from New York. It is discussed whether the television should illuminate the Altraits (ultra-right) gatherings if they throw in front of the Zigi cameras and shout “Hale Trump!” (I recall the 282 article). They argue about the conflict of interests that Trump will inevitably encounter-and this applies not only to his many real estate, golf-fields and other businesses in dozens of countries (Trump states that it transfers business management to his children and it is quickly impossible to sell), but also the prospects that Trump will allow his business partner and closest relatives (remembers the closest relatives (recall The term "family"). And of course, the names of the candidates for his administration are endlessly lushing: newspapers write that this will be an administration consisting of billionaires and millionaires. For example, the state of the candidate for the Minister of Trade (Commerce Secetary) Wilbur Ross - $ 2.5 billion, and his deputy is the heir to the billionth state, like the new Minister of Education Betsy Devos, whose wealth is estimated at $ 5.1 billion in the fashion edition of VOX, which exposed Trump and supported Hillary, barely holding on to the borders. Professional ethics, the instruction appears "How to talk with relatives on the day of thanksgiving if they voted for Trump." John Oliver finishes the season of his humorous show on the HBO by a pathetic speech with the transfer of funds that need to be sacrificed right now if you support the protection of migrant rights or the fight against climatic changes. The historian Timoti Snyder from Yale University posts on Facebook a list of 20 rules that need to be followed in the impending new times - do not subordinate in advance, believe in the truth, remember the professional ethics, protect the institutions. And this determination and awareness (also reminiscent of the first weeks of swamp protests, but rarely encountered in Russian society now) - perhaps the main thing that makes all kinds of analogies: although it looks like Russia, only not Russia.

How was it several years ago in Russia, a liberal -minded intelligentsia suddenly discovers an incomprehensible, hostile country

The fact that American institutions and the will of society will not allow Trump to fulfill its most wild election promises is perhaps the most popular consolation of post -breed days. British political scientist David Ransimen writes in the London Review of Books publication that voting for a person who called the American political system through the rotten and corrupt, actually confirms confirming this system: “They want changes and at the same time they believe in the basic reliability and dignity of American political institutions that can protect him From the possible bad consequences of these changes. ” Tears in the telephone tube, psychologists in university audiences, the rage of protesters with Trump Tower, manifesto on Facebook - all these are natural reactions to unusual, going beyond, and at the same time this is a check for “anti -chipility” - using the term Nicholas Nysim Taleb. The shocks that the system experiences are sometimes able to only increase the strength of the system itself; What does not kill them will make them stronger. Is it possible to draw an analogy with Russia at this point - God news.

Reference

Recalculation of votes in the United States

Where? - In the states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Why? - According to the leader of the Green Jill Stein party, there could be errors with electronic counting of votes, especially if the state hackers climbed into the staff of the States election system.

Who is in a bite? - In all three states, the representative of the Republican Party Trump won, although more often these states voted for the Democrats. In Michigan, Trump scored 10,704 (0.2%of all votes), in Wisconsin - at 22 177 (0.8%), in Pennsylvania - at 70,638 (1.1%) more votes than Clinton, and thus received all the votes of all electors of these states (46).

How will they recalculate? - Manually.

When? - A good question. The entire recalculation of the votes should begin next week and end on December 13, December 19, the college of electors should be called the US president. But for this, in Pennsylvania, the initiator of the recalculation of Jil Styin must be achieved by a court decision to recalculate, in Michigan - the decision of the state CEC, in Wisconsin there are already problems with the election commission of the state.

What is needed for this? - $ 7 million, of which $ 6.3 million have already been raised with minor donations, plus the decision of the vessels, commissions and a lot of hands to make this manual recount.

What will happen if the recalculation happens? - Now Trump has 306 votes of electoral votes, Clinton has 232. Hypothetically, if the recalculation in all three states is in favor of Clinton, then it will have 278, and Trump has 260 votes of electors, and then Clinton will be declared the elected president.

What are the chances? - They are close to zero.