The self -invoice of Putin

What the president wanted to say, what he did not say and what he meant

Every time before the annual message of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Federal Assembly in the politicized part of our society has a hype, as if before the final of the football Champions League. Sensitive revelations and loud promises - or both of them expect from the leader. So on the eve of December 1, 2016, the excitement was rather big. Especially taking into account the fact that in the last pre-public days the Kremlin sources-both anonymous and quite vowel spokesman Dmitry Peskov-actively hinted: get ready, the message will be unusual, there are no ways.

Expectations

There were many assumptions about surprises in our heated heads.

The most impudent, on the verge of madness: Putin will announce his own early elections in 2017.

The second level of insolence: the resignation of the government of Dmitry Medvedev.

The third level: on the eve of the visit to Japan, the President will announce the sensational scenario of the settlement of the problem of the southern smoking by, for example, to the Japanese surrender of the island of Shikotan and the ridges of Habomai.

And when it became clear from the same all-knowing sources that Putin is informing about the lessons of 1917 and the need for national rallying-reception, some adventurously thinking characters, for example, the author of these lines, managed to make a riddle: it was decided, finally, to bury V.I. Lenin in the Volkov cemetery of St. Petersburg?

As almost always, the expectations did not live at all. The unusual message of 2016 was only in one thing: it turned out to be inexpressibly boring-to funny.

What said

The main theses of the presidential appeal to the parliament/elites/country/world/reader must be known, but I will briefly remind them.

• The main problems in the economy are behind. There was a growth in industry - albeit timid and sluggish. However, in the military-industrial complex-a real boom: growth in 2016 by 10.1% (!). (The subtext reads: thanks to the aggravating militarization of the country). Agriculture is resurrected, including due to beneficial counter-sanctions introduced in 2014 in response to humiliation from the West. Inflation is now expected to be the lowest in the entire (!) Post -Soviet history - 6.1%. And next year it should be 4%at all.
• Living is already good. And it will become even better. In May 2017, the Medvedev government will issue a program for the development of the economy, the implementation of which will allow by 2020 to reach the growth rate of the economy above the mid-air. In 2017-2018, a tax reform will be prepared, designed to fully stimulate the development of entrepreneurship. The Cabinet of Ministers is obliged to fulfill social obligations regardless of energy prices. The time has come to strengthen the labor status of self -employed citizens - that is, those who work on their own, outside the state. For two years, all medical institutions of the country will be connected to a high -speed Internet. 3.3 billion rubles are allocated for the development of sanitary aviation.
• The fertility in the country has grown, children's mortality fell. This is an indicator of movement in the only correct direction.
• The fight against corruption cannot be turned into a show. Resonance anti -corruption affairs are not an occasion for information noise: they require "professionalism, seriousness and responsibility."
• 2017 declared the year of ecology. On this occasion, Baikal will be finally saved and preserved, and without that much does not need anything.
• The most important thing is the rally of the nation. Questions sharing and dividing the nation must be removed from the agenda.
• If one of the Russians arrogantly considers himself especially advanced, this is not an occasion to establish their views. Roughly speaking, intellectuals and hipsters should not teach the Great RF-People of Life. But vandalism on objects of culture /art is also not good. Intellectuals and hipsters still have the right to exist in Russia.
• The role of parliament in the political life of the Russian Federation (!) Is growing steadily and wide. On the day of the Message, United Russia celebrated its 15th anniversary, and it is of the main responsibility for the functioning of parliament’s affairs. But the rest of the parties are also in business. Most likely, the current four -party (in fact - single -party) system will remain as it is.
• The regions should not be greedy, but take more and more state expenses.
• Officials do not stick out forever in office rooms, but go to the people, to people, discuss decisions, consult, etc.
• Well, under the curtain - an international block. Russia completely defended its independence with sovereignty. We will not allow anyone to impose any important solutions to us. In different parts of the world, people and forces come to power and forces for friendly partnership with the Russian Federation.

Putin turns not only and not so much to the federal meeting and people as to himself

The general meaning of the message can be formulated as follows:

We won. Those - both within the country, and especially abroad - who, after the “Crimean spring” predicted to us disasters and even collapse, lost and shameful. The economy was completely naked, and there will be nothing wrong with it. Problems are good; If they were not there, they should have invented them, because they encourage us to act as effectively as possible. I rally the Russians. I prevented the great shocks from which Russia suffered so much in the 20th century. Slavic the generous igemon ©.

I didn't say

Of course, the president was silent about a lot.

For example.

On the fall of real income of citizens: so, according to the Higher School of Economics, 36% of families do not have enough money for the most necessary, and 23% are not able to pay for housing and communal services. In 2015, real incomes of the population fell by 10%, according to the results of this year - will fall by another 5-6%.

On the freezing of pension savings and maternity capital (until 2020) - funds for the Syrian war and related operations are very necessary.

About the planned reduction in social expenses by almost a third in 2017-2018.

About the fact that the country's economy is compressed as shagren leather: if in 2014 in the IMF Reutig, Russia took 6th place in terms of GDP, then in 2016-the 14th, the country's GDP decreased to a trillion dollars-from $ 2.1 trillion to $ 1.1 trillion and amounts to 6% of the United States GDP*.

About the growing AIDS epidemic.

About the dead/dying in Ukraine and in Syria, Russian military.

About the fact that the regions are almost bankrupt, and in such a situation to require additional expenses from them is absurd.

Well, much more about what.

And this default system is determined not only by political expediency, but also by the features of the psychology of the Russian Federation. He, in principle, does not like to talk about unpleasant. Since contrary to his image of a steep impenetrable macho, a poorly holds a blow. Even one unpleasant, or rather - unprepared - the question can unsettle him. The television journalist Vladimir Pozner publicly told why GDP refuses to come to his program on Channel One: the presidential assistants say that he was too annoyed by possible acute issues. The President not only does not have to tell the truth, but also think about it. True, it can lead to the psychological destabilization of the leader, and this would cost the country and the whole world.

What meant

So in this sense, Putin turns not only and not so much to the federal assembly and people as to himself. Everything is fine, ”he says to his reflection in the mirror. I have been predicted so many times to an unhappy end, but he comprehended just mostly the predictors. Who will surpass me? Who will be equal to me? (© V.Ya. Bryusov).

I, and not someone else, accidentally being in power in Russia 17 (as much as seventeen!) Years ago, went through all the disasters and misfortunes. Terrorist attacks, wars, financial crises. And what? Does anyone else have to say that my regime is unstable? And since, as we know from the Kremlin since 2015, Putin is equal to Russia, and vice versa (the famous maxim “without Putin is not Russia”), the country is also stable. While I'm alive.

Yes, of course, I am a little afraid of insidious Americans and implicitly, but precisely related terrorists. But in this regard, I have “on top of the teeth of the armed troops” ©, including tens of thousands of people of all kinds of guards. And I do not see anything wrong with taking money from pensioners and babies and giving it to all types of security forces. Infants do not yet understand what is happening, and pensioners will fail. For the sake of me and Russia, that the same thing. In the end, they grew out of Soviet life and are familiar to hardships.

And in general: this people have never lived as satisfying as under Putin, isn't it? You can tolerate a little and before the onset of completely good times (and now good times, but still not the best).

By the way. Just on the eve of the Message-2016, the Nobel Prize Laureate Paul Krugman wrote on Twitter that Donald Trump had led two people: the director of the FBI James Komi (just shortly before the elections, he announced a new serious compromise for Hillary Clinton, which was worth the last number of votes of electorals) and Vladimir Putin. What should the Russian leader feel who already runs the fate of American politics?

But six months later, Francois Fillon will come to power in France for a sweet soul, who seems to be also with all his soul for friendship with Putin's Russia. Then overripe sanctions will be canceled, and ... we will win finally, irrevocably.

Without Gandhi

During the announcement of the message, it was clearly visible how Putin was bored. How uninteresting to him all these small details. He runs the fate of the world, but is forced to report on affairs with sanitary aircraft. Damn it. He revived and metallized his voice only once - when he talked about America and the roles of Russia in global politics.

Then why is the message? As a person of a certain psychotype, Vladimir Putin premium respects rituals. Since they, in his understanding, are an important part of the stability of the system and the country as a whole

Then why is the message? This is a matter of political psychology. As a person of a certain psychotype, Vladimir Putin premium respects rituals. Since they, in his understanding, are an important part of the stability of the system and the country as a whole. And since such a ritual is provided for by the Constitution of the Russian Federation - it will be carried out. Despite the fact that it has long lost its practical meaning. The GDP does not cancel the federal elections, although it is known to him in advance.

Man is most often in public and non -public texts, no matter what they are formally devoted, ”he says about himself. And Putin with his message is no exception. And the federal meeting has nothing to do with it. If it in full force pretends to be seriously perceived by a messenger event, then who will respect this parliament? Well, not Putin. He, as they say, in St. Petersburg, when he served the first deputy mayor, did not put the city’s legislative assembly in a penny. And then - and now!

And the last. Purely stylistic. The text of the message is such that it seems: the Kremlin hired former speakers L.I. Brezhnev. And this is also psychologically explainable. Brezhnev times for the president is not only stability, which is so self -sufficient to him. But early youth, when "Chukchi was young, his girls loved." And unconsciously a man-be he a jacket-gastarbaiter or the lord of the world-wants to return to youth. At least for a short while.

The positive result of the message is one: Putin became more than predictable. Not at the level of specific solutions, but from the point of view of the logic of his behavior. No need to listen too much and know in order to understand how it will be approximately with him and the country.

Sensations are possible, but also, oddly enough, predictable.

* Anders aslund, How Russia Stays Afloat, Project Syndicate, Nov. 28, 2016.