What should you be afraid in 2017

Bloomberg predicted the most dangerous events of the next year

The Bloomberg publication annually draws up a rating of the main threats that expect peace next year. Bloomberg predictions are often come true: for example, at the end of 2015, experts surveyed by the publication believed that in 2016 it was worth being afraid of the election of Donald Trump by the President of the United States and the UK exit from the European Union (although sociological studies talked about the opposite). Medusa says that Bloomberg has become a reality from last year’s forecast - and what events should be afraid in 2017.

What came true in 2016

"Brexit." At the end of 2015, Bloomberg called the UK exit from the European Union one of the main threats of next year. According to analysts surveyed by the publication, the government after the referendum on Brexit was supposed to be headed by Boris Johnson - the forecast did not come true in this part, but otherwise everything happened exactly as Bloomberg described: Schotland’s conversations about the exit from the UK, and the collapse of the British markets and pounds.

Global warming. The Paris Climate Conference, which took place exactly a year ago, was not able to make decisions that allow you to stop global warming-2016 is called the warmest in the history of observations. Bloomberg predicted the more dramatic consequences of global warming, including the emergency mode in California and the decline of South Africa due to lack of water-but in general the forecast is correct.

Donald Trump is the president of the United States. The eccentric billionaire not only won the election contrary to all surveys, but also became a man of the year according to Time magazine. The publication called Trump "President of the disconnected states of America."

Most Bloomberg predictions have not come true or only partially came true. Israel did not bomb Iran nuclear objects (conversely, sanctions are losing from Tehran); Russian and Iranian hackers did not attack the largest banks (but hackers from the Russian Federation accused of interfering with the American elections); In Latin America, although the crisis continues, but to the semi -Aarchic situation in Brazil after the impeachment of Dilma Rusef is far away. Oil does not cost $ 100 per barrel; China’s militarization did not lead to an exacerbation of the situation in Asia; Angel Merkel did not resign due to nationalist protests; Finally, Vladimir Putin could not achieve the settlement of the situation in Syria and thereby force Europe to relieve sanctions.

What to be afraid in 2017

Elections in Europe. After Brexit, populists have good chances to win the elections in many European countries, including Greece, Poland, Germany and France (where the leader of the far -right Marine Le Pen can come to power). Early elections in the UK are not excluded. Bloomberg calls possible political changes in Europe the main threat to world stability in 2017.

Protests in the USA. After Trump entered the post of US president in the States, mass protests will begin against his policy. To restore order, the president will be forced to introduce a commandant hour in several large cities. The country will actually be divided into two camps with the center of the opposition in California; Among its leaders will be entrepreneur Ilon Musk.

The economic war of the United States and China. In response to Trump's accusations against China, Beijing devastes Yuan, cancel the Boeing orders and block the sales of iPhones. At the same time, China itself will be in the deepest recession. The loss of the American market as a result of a quarrel with Trump will turn into a repetition of the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

The world without US protection. The lack of diplomatic experience and understanding of the international agenda among the elected President of the United States Donald Trump can lead to serious changes in the world. For example, under his leadership, the United States may cease to be serious restraining force and lose the role of the “world gendarme”, giving the road to Russia and China. Under these conditions, terrorists from the Islamic State, Japan and Saudi Arabia will strengthen their positions with nuclear programs, and the DPRK will prove that it has a nuclear bomb that can hit the territory of America.

Cyberry. In the United States, a whole series of hacker attacks will take place for key infrastructure facilities, including power plants, among the goals of hackers there will be medical devices and self -governing cars connected to the Internet. The attacks will be a large state - Russia or China.

Caribbean crisis-2. At the post of US President, Donald Trump will cancel the Barack Obama course to converge with Cuba. The socialist state will resume close relations with China and Russia and will allow Moscow to open an intelligence base in Havana. Because of this, relations between the United States and Russia will deteriorate so much that they will remind the world of the Caribbean crisis of 1962.

Mexico fall. Trump will make a promise to break off relations with Mexico and begin to deport illegal migrants from this country. The economy of Mexico will fall, the authorities will seize populists opposed to the United States, and the country will blossom the drug business.

The war of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Attempts by Saudi Arabia to diversify the economy will not lead to anything, a palace coup will occur in the kingdom. The balance of power in the Middle East will move towards the long -standing enemy of Saudi Arabia Iran. Without a deterrent in the form of the United States, the war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producers, which will lead to a crisis in the oil market, will begin.

And what about Russia?

Russia is promised to rise. Due to the isolationist policy of Donald Trump, the German Chancellor Angel Merkel will have to choose-to agree with Russia or to begin to arm themselves. According to Bloomberg, Merkel can choose the first option and, in exchange for weakening stress and the review of Russian hackers, recognize the claims of the Russian Federation to Ukraine, Syria and Belarus (obviously, as zones of influence). The prestige of Russia in the international arena will be restored, the ruble will be strengthened, Vladimir Putin will feel his mission executed and begin to talk about resting to rest.