Sberbank analysts convicted Rosstat in creating new arithmetic rules

The Rosstat data on industrial production contradict arithmetic calculations. This conclusion was reached by Sberbank CIB analysts (Sberbank investment unit), follows the report received by Republic.

According to the materials of Rosstat published on December 15, in November, Russian industry increased by 2.7% in annual terms - the maximum pace in two years, and in the first 11 months of 2016 - by 0.8%.

“A simple arithmetic action, which consists in multiplying the monthly indicators, gives a completely different result: in such calculations, it turns out that in January-November 2016, industrial production increased only 0.3% compared to the same period last year,” said Sberbank CIB.

In Rosstat, they explained that over 11 months, industrial production growth really amounted to 0.8%, and historical data for previous periods are already irrelevant and will be revised (most likely towards the increase). “Given this, the analysis of monthly statistics seems to be deprived of meaning, and we should be guided by new data,” analysts emphasized.

In October, according to Rosstat, industrial production in the Russian Federation decreased by 0.2% compared to the same month of last year, and in September-by 0.8%, which became the strongest fall since January 2016. In August, June, May, April and February, the indicator increased (by 0.7%, 1.7%, 0.7%, 0.5% and 1%, respectively), in July, March and January fell by 0.3%, 0.5% and 2.7%, respectively. According to the results of 2016, as the Ministry of Economic Development expects, industrial growth in the Russian Federation will be 0.4%.