The ruble is overvalued again. Will there be a collapse?

After a sharp fall in the ruble, at the end of 2014, every year in December, Russians wait if the collapse will happen again. So far, the ruble, on the contrary, is getting more expensive. But the economist Yakov Mirkin, who predicted the devaluation at the beginning of 2014, warned on December 21 that the new decline in the ruble is inevitable now. Republic asked Mirkin to talk about his fears in more detail.

In December, the ruble sharply strengthened to the dollar and the euro, breaking the maximums of the last one and a half years. And this is with a falling economy and compressing budget.

With powerless malice, we observe how the fourth explosive devaluation of the ruble is being prepared, exactly repeating the scenarios of the previous ones - 1998, 2009, 2014. Stabilization of the ruble with a very high percentage in rubles causes a huge influx of speculative money of non-residents, from abroad, in Kerry Trade operation. Roughly speaking, dollars or euros are invested in rubles under a high percentage (or in growth in the shares market), and a stable or even strengthening ruble makes it possible to bring them back after a while, turn the rubles back to dollars or euros, having received a very high, by world standards, currency profits.

This is the standard mechanism for the preparation of the future currency, financial crisis in Russia (and not only), which has already worked three times and, apparently, the fourth may work.

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