Rex Tillerson and Ukraine

In Kiev, reports about the Ukrainian crisis of a candidate for the post of Secretary of State, the former head of the Exxonmobil Oil Corporation Rex Tillerson and the prospects of Ukrainian-American relations under the administration of the new president Donald Trump.

On Wednesday, on the hearing in the Senate, Tillerson said that the response of the administration of the departing US President Barack Obama to the Ukrainian crisis was “too weak” that after the annexation of Crimea Russia Washington was supposed to provide assistance to Ukraine, in particular, defensive weapons to prevent further Russian aggression.

Analyst of the Institute of Euro -Atlantic Cooperation Vladimir Gorbach will share this position of Rex Tillerson, but doubts his sincerity:

- The most important, gross mistake of the United States is the decision not to provide Ukraine with modern lethal weapons. But from the point of view of the sincerity of the words of the candidate in the Secretary of State - I have some doubts, since Tillerson read this text on a piece of paper. He was obviously prepared by political strategists in response to an inevitable question about relations with Russia. Therefore, how everything will actually develop and what the whole administration of Trump will be, we can only see in practice. So far, I personally have no confidence in the words.

Director of the Center for Public Relations , Evgeny Magda, Tillerson's statements regarding Ukraine calls ambiguous:

-On the one hand, he spoke out for increasing the defense capability of Ukraine, for our country to receive lethal weapons from the United States, and on the other hand, he said that in the issue of Crimea that was captured by Russia, perhaps some wide agreement that would suit Ukraine. Allegedly, the annexation, which is closed by some wide agreement, may comply with the norms of international law a little. Let me remind you that on the eve of the Congress of the Republican Party of the United States from the pre -election program of Donald Trump, an item was excluded about the possibility of providing Ukraine with lethal weapons. And it is unlikely that it is worthwhile to have special illusions, although, on the other hand, the Republicans in the US Congress - both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate - have a majority, and I think that the logic of relations between the legislative power and the President in the United States under Trump will be slightly different than at Obama. But in any case, Ukraine should rely, first of all, and hope that the United States will understand the need to provide Ukraine with lethal and, I want to emphasize, defensive weapons, since it is not worth counting on the supply of offensive weapons to Ukraine at all.

Tillerson's words are called upon, first of all, to dispel the suspicions of his ties with Moscow, the head of the Penta Political Studies Center Vladimir Fesenko is convinced of the Center for Political Studies:

- Tillerson knows that there are suspicions of his connections with Russia, and he is trying to neutralize them with such statements. And regarding the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine, and regarding the fact that the United States will not recognize Crimea by the Russian. True, Tillerson made a reservation: the question of the status of Crimea and relations with Russia will be consistent with Ukraine. And this reservation is ambiguous. On the one hand, it is important for us that this decision will not be made without us, on the other hand, this may mean that the new American administration can put pressure on us so that we adopt a certain compromise plan for the Crimea. But the decisive role, I believe, is played by tactical circumstances. Of course, Tillerson is trying to remove suspicions addressed to him and neutralize the potentially possible risks of a critical attitude to his candidate in the Senate. Are the risks that Ukraine will trade? A certain risk is preserved. Although I think that now the situation is becoming more difficult after the release of “incriminating evidence” ( on Donald Trump. - RS ), after accusations against Russia of hacker attacks on the United States and their political institutions. I think Trump and his administration will try to negotiate with Putin, find a compromise and relieve stress that has arisen in recent years. But now Trump, in my opinion, will be forced to demonstrate with Putin a certain restraint and, perhaps, even rigidity. Otherwise, if you make great concessions to Putin, this kind of transaction will be perceived in the United States as a confirmation of a special relationship either Trump itself or its environment, that they are under the influence of Russia or under the influence of "compromising evidence".

Therefore, I do not think that there will be some direct attempt to give Ukraine into the sphere of influence of Putin. Most likely, the US Secretary of State Kerry with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Lavrov, that is: the need to fulfill the fulfillment of the Minsk conflict in eastern Ukraine, which provides for local elections in the territory of Donbass and the provision of a conflict region of some special status, agreed. But here the question arises about the terms of the agreement, and how much this will be consistent with the Ukrainian leadership. I think that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who is going to visit the United States in February, will try to convince Trump not to make excessive concessions, will talk about certain red lines for which the Ukrainian leadership cannot cross. A significant part of the elite and Ukrainian society categorically against any significant compromises with Russia. In these conditions, it will be unrealistic to achieve the execution of unacceptable Minsk agreements for this part of the company. You can promise Putin anything, but in the end it can end either with a new, larger crisis already in Kyiv, or by the fact that these agreements will not be fulfilled, as preliminary agreements between Kerry and Lavrov were not fulfilled.

The fact that Ukraine will become a bargaining coin between Washington and Moscow is not believed by Professor of the Kiev-Mogilyan Academy, Scientific Director of the Foundation "Democratic Initiatives named after Ilka Kucheriv" Alexei Guarantee :

-I do not think that some radical changes will occur in the sense of surrendering the interests of Ukraine. It is likely that some adjustments will be, but Ukraine will not pass. As for the possibility of supplies to Ukraine of lethal weapons, I think everything will depend on the situation at the front in the Donbass. If the situation is the same as it is now, it will hardly happen. If there is a deterioration, if Putin begins some large-scale actions, then the issue of weapons supply can be resolved positively.