Sanctions and "art of transaction" with Putin

Future relations of the United States with Russia were on Wednesday in the focus in the United States. The views of the chosen president of the country and the candidate for the Secretary of State for Russia were one of the main topics of the first half a year of the press conference of Donald Trump and the hearings in the Senate Committee on International Relations, where the senators asked Rex Tillerson questions during the day.

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"Donald Trump recognizes Russian intervention in the elections"-under such a heading in The New York Times, an article dedicated to the Donald Trump press conference. The press conference, as expected, will be mainly devoted to how the elected president, the billionaire entrepreneur, intends to separate himself from his company, which is actively engaged in business in different parts of the world.

However, the reporters forced Donald Trump to move on to the Russian topic, especially since on the eve of CNN, the CNN television company offered readers and spectators: according to its sources, in the Kremlin’s hands there may be financial and other information that compromises Trump, and that American intelligence leaders who met him last Friday allegedly reported this to the elected president.

In response to the questions of correspondents, Donald Trump loudly complained to the behavior of the American intelligence services, accusing their employees of intentional organization of leakage of unverified, falsified information: "I consider it shameful that the fake, false information about what was not, was published." He sharply accounted for CNN correspondents who attended a press conference, and refused to answer their questions, accusing them of creating fake news.

With regard to the actions of hackers, I think this is Russia

Nevertheless, the elected president for the first time publicly agreed with the conclusions of the American intelligence services that Russia was behind cyber attacks during the presidential campaign. “As for the actions of hackers, I think this is Russia,” Donald Trump admitted. Vladimir Putin, he said, should not have done this, and he will not do this in the future.

Correspondents did not receive an answer to other questions of interest in the United States: does the next US president intend to maintain sanctions against Russian citizens and companies, whether he is ready to tighten them in response to the Kremlin’s intervention in the American presidential campaign, whether people from his environment came into contact with representatives of Russia during the presidential campaign.

Before Rex Tillerson , a candidate for the post of public secretary, was more difficult than a possible future boss. He needed to convince members of the Senate Committee on International Relations, where the Kremlin’s critics dominate, that he was not predisposed to the Kremlin and to Vladimir Putin, who handed him the Order of Friendship as the head of the Exxon Mobil oil corporation, which provided considerable assistance in the development of the Russian oil industry, which earned a lot of money there and publicly opposed sanctions.

Judging by the replicas of some of the senators, after the end of the hearing, which dragged on for the whole day, he failed to dispel the main skeptics, for example, Republican Senators Marco Rubio and Lindsay Graham. However, during the first public acquaintance with him, the Americans Rex Tillerson introduced himself, unlike Donald Trump, as a rather decisive critic of Vladimir Putin, who understands, according to Tillerson, the motives of Putin’s actions and ready to act firmly.

The United States will fulfill its obligations to protect NATO member countries in case of attack from Russia

He called the annexation of Crimea and the Russian invasion of Ukraine by a "illegal action" and even said that he would send Ukraine to protect against Russia. He emphasized that the United States will fulfill its obligations to protect NATO member countries in the event of an attack by Russia, and warned Moscow that it would "bear responsibility for its shares." As for the sanctions, according to Tillerson, they will be preserved, at least as long as the Trump administration will develop its strategy for relations with Russia.

It is not known, however, how much decisive statements are consistent with the views of Donald Trump, since, as Tillerson explained, he has not seriously discussed the representations of the elected president with Trump about how American-Russian relations should be built.

For the critics of the Kremlin in the Senate of these statements, it was not enough to announce the support of the candidacy of Tillerson as a Secretary of State. Senator Marco Rubio, who did not receive an answer to the question, for example, whether Rex Tillerson considers the military crimes of the bombardment of Russian civilian aviation in Syria, announced that he did not see “moral clarity” in Tillerson's positions, which, in his opinion, is absolutely necessary for a person representing the United States in the world.

Marco Rubio

Hearing in the Senate, as well as the press conference of Donald Trump, give reason to draw some conclusions that the Trump administration can act against the Kremlin from the position of force, leaving the open road to agreements, suggests Richard Ebeling , economist and political scientist, professor of college Citadel in South Carolina:

He, as a few of the Americans, represents how this Russian mechanism works

- Tillerson has much more experience in communication and negotiations with the Russian authorities than Trump. As the head of Exxon Mobil, he was forced to conclude complex transactions and make his way through the intricacies of the Russian political maze. He knows very well about the cynicism and corruption of this system and dominant relations there. It can be assumed that he, as a few of the Americans, represents how this Russian mechanism works, and understands, so to speak, which is the head of a modern Russian leader.

Therefore, when he says that it would be worth providing Ukraine defensive weapons and providing other support, he concludes that the Russians are confident in their position, they will always aim to the weaknesses of their opponents, and the United States should show the Kremlin that the opponent confronts them, no less decisive than them. That's how I would interpret Tillerson's views that he developed on the basis of his experience of interacting with Russia.

- How do you interpret, on the one hand, Tillerson’s refusal to make a forecast about the future of sanctions against the Kremlin, and on the other, statements that sanctions can be a useful tool in the international policy of the United States?

The new American administration will take advantage of these sanctions as an argument in relations with Moscow

-The obvious fact lies in the fact that the sanctions were not reflected any noticeably in Putin and oligarchs, if we talk about their living standards, access to luxury or the volume of power, concentrated in their hands, but at the same time the sanctions significantly touched the average Russian. Therefore, in response to the inevitable question about the sanctions, Tillerson answers that in very many cases it is impossible to firmly say whether they have achieved the goal. This applies to the Russian case. In this situation, I think, it is possible to predict with a high degree of probability that the new American administration will take advantage of these sanctions as an argument in relations with Moscow, they will be at the negotiating table and used by Trump, who considers himself a master of "art of the deal".