Erdogan provoked an economic crisis in a country, deprived of the ability to defend himself after stripping the security agencies. But he found other guilty

The Turkish parliament last week actually gave the “green light” to the reform of the Constitution, which will allow Erdogan to become a sovereign master of the country. Problems such as a rampant terrorism, an impending economic crisis, the growth of social stress and confrontation between different layers of Turkish society remain still not resolved.

Erdogan, a step from legalizing his unlimited power

Constitutional debate in the Mejlis began with a protest. Despite the law on the emergency in Turkey, to the full defeat of the opposition press, to the arrests of a number of leading addressing politicians, several hundred people gathered near the parliament building in Ankara to express their disagreement with the plans of the authorities to turn the parliamentary republic into an authoritarian state. Demonstrators were accelerated by water bodies and tear gas.

The next day, the mayor of the Turkish capital, citing a terrorist threat, forbade his power to hold all sorts of demonstrations, rallies, and pickets for a month. However, in the very hall of Medzhlis meetings, events were far from developing as smoothly as representatives of the ruling Erdogan Party of Justice and Development (PSR) would like.

Deputies of the opposition Republican People's Party (RCP) and the Democratic Party of Peoples (DCP) gave a real fight for each proposal of constitutional amendments. Their critical comments caused an acute response in the ranks of deputies from the PSR. Sometimes passions were heated to such an extent that verbal skirmishes turned into hand -to -hand brawls.

The question arises appropriately here: why did Erdogan need parliamentary discussions if he already has such a power that can only be compared with the absolutism of the Turkish sultans?

The fact is that the Turkish president really does not want to look like a dictator usurped.

Erdogan needs legitimacy when the people's deputies, by “their will”, edit the Constitution and correctly present unlimited powers to him.

However, the PSR twice failed to achieve through the elections of the absolute parliamentary majority. The pro -presidential party has 317 deputy places in the current composition of the Mejlis, and at least 360 votes are required to accept constitutional changes.

Although the pitch that had failed in July last year and the ensuing large-scale repressions regarding dissenters, coupled with the ultrapatriotic propaganda campaign, raised Erdogan rating to an unprecedented height, represented in the parliament, not succumbing to the general euphoria, still firmly objected to the reform of the Constitution. The obstacle, in the leadership of the PSR, a new plan was prepared: formally discuss constitutional editing in the Mezhlis and bring them to a referendum - let, they say, the people will decide.

But the PSR again lacked voices to make a decision on a plebiscite. From this situation, the way out was found in the fact that, having promised the leadership of the party of the nationalist movement (40 deputies) the post of one of the future vice presidents, lured part of the nationalist faction to their side.

The referendum should take place in April. Erdogan and his party are confident in its positive outcome. If their expectations are acquitted, then the new constitution by which the president will be endowed with the full executive branch will come into force in 2019. The position of the Prime Minister will be abolished, instead of him the head of state will have several deputies with government functions. Parliament is completely deprived of the right to participate in the appointment of the Cabinet of Ministers and control its actions.

Erdogan supporters have no doubt that only strong presidential power can solve all problems that have arisen before the country, including successfully confront terrorism.

How the state deprived itself of eyes and ears in the fight against terrorist threats

In the past year and a half, regular terrorist sorties have become a tragic pattern in Turkey. So 2017 began with a bloody crime. In Istanbul on New Year's Eve, visitors to the popular Reina club - 39 killed, almost 70 wounded were brutally shot. The criminal managed to hide.

The escalation of terrorist activities in Turkey, according to international experts, is due, firstly, a chopped Kurdish problem and, secondly, by the conflict of Ankara with the Islamic state ( the organization banned in Russia - ed. ). Both that, and another, in their opinion, can be safely called the work of the Turkish authorities themselves.

In 2015, Erdogan, having violated the ceasefire with the Kurdistan working party for 2 years, deliberately went to aggravate relations with the Kurds. The PSR did not receive the desired result in the parliamentary elections. Moreover, the recently created Pokurd DPN has achieved serious success - 80 deputy places in the Mejlis.

Before the repeated elections, the image of an internal enemy was required. The Kurds approached this role best. After a loud terrorist attack in the city of Suruch, who allegedly committed the IG militants, Turkey, formally joining the Antihilov International Coalition, began to bomb the territory of the Iraqi Kurdistan, where the main forces of the combat wing of the RCP were located. In the capital of the Turkish Kurds of Diyarbakyr, mass searches and arrests were held, the historical center was completely cleaned, hundreds of Kurdish families were evicted from their own apartments, shops, shops, and pharmacies were closed.

In response, the Kurdish militants held a series of attacks on the military and the police, giving Erdoganov’s propaganda the reason to argue that the RPC is striving to destabilize the situation in the country, and the Democratic Party of Peoples is the political representative of the Kurdish terrorists. But the DPN, despite such pressure, was able to keep the conquered voters conquered during the repeated parliamentary elections.

On the other hand, support for the struggle of coalition forces against IG seriously complicated the relationship of Ankara with Islamic radicals. Turkey had to take measures in order to at least somehow comply with the allied status and limit the use of its territory as a transshipment base to replenish the ranks of the IG volunteers from all over the world, the transit of weapons and illegal trade in oil products.

In October 2015, in the center of the capital of Turkey, at a rally of left -wing parties and trade unions, two suicide bombers exploded, taking away with them 103 lives and injuring more than 500 people. So the leadership of the IG, outraged by the change of benevolent neutrality to confrontation, defiantly declared war on the Turkish authorities. Then there were explosions in the center of Istanbul, at the Ataturk International Airport and, finally, the execution in the night club.

Erdoganov ministers and politicians each time after the next attack declared their determination to fight the terrorist threat, the Turkish army carried out demonstrative stripping in the areas of the Kurdish population, bombed the positions of the RCP and the settlements occupied by radical Islamists. However, these actions did not bring any tangible positive results.

Military events against terrorists without effective and qualified activities of special services are in practice by non -zero waving fists in the dark. And in Turkey, after suppressing the putsch in local intelligence, counterintelligence, anti -terrorist units, a catastrophic situation has developed. So, according to some reports, the repression of almost 95% of special services employees affected the accusations of the Gulen’s movement.

In conditions when the Turkish state, figuratively speaking, has lost its eyes and ears for the preparation of the special services operative at least 5-6 years. Deputies from the Republican People's Party, by the way, in October last year proposed to conduct a parliamentary investigation on this issue. However, the pro -government majority rejected the opposition’s proposal.

The RNP expert in the field of security, Sesgin Tanrikulu is convinced that the authorities made a fatal mistake, making a bet in the fight against terrorism to introduce a state of emergency, and random people from the street fill out the personnel vacuum in the police and special services. It was this approach, the expert believes, led to the murder of the Russian ambassador.

Who does not exchange currency is an economic terrorist

More recently, in the early 10s, the Turkish economy with its almost six percent of annual growth was considered more than successful in the circles of international economists. The first alarming signals in 2014 coincided with Erdogan's plans to get to the president - the lyre rate fell. Further, as the political climate worsened and the growth of the number of terrorist attacks, problems in the construction business began - foreign investors began to withdraw their capital. After the coup, the tourist sector collapsed, and for Turkey construction and tourism are the locomotives of the entire economy.

In 2016, investments in construction were half compared to the previous year, tourism revenues were reduced by a third, in general, economic growth lost about 2%. In early January, a devalued lira to the dollar dropped to the level of 1981.

The government, trying to confront the impending crisis, turned to Turkish entrepreneurs with an urgent request to compensate for the losses from the departure of foreign business with loans in the amount of 250 billion lires. For employers in construction, solid tax benefits were promised. But the main thing is that the president and Prime Minister personally turned to fellow citizens with an appeal to exchange savings in a firm currency for a weakening lyre.

The point, however, has not yet reached the compulsory confiscation of foreign currency accounts and cash. But, apparently, the voluntary exchange process is not very active, since the other day, Erdogan, comparing the problems of the economy with the wave of the latest terrorist acts, said that he said that

“By and large, there is no difference between a terrorist with a bomb or a pistol in their hands and those who own dollars and euros receives usury interest.”

In the light of general economic troubles and similar statements, the mood of the population has changed significantly. If in August the President and the Government rating went off for 80%, then by the end of the year it barely exceeded the line of 60%. What will be rated interest by April is difficult to predict. At least, the Turks have time to think about the referendum, because in case of their approval, Erdogan will remain in power until at least 2030.