Trump Anticrevsky cabinet

Will people who are critical in relation to the Kremlin be at the key posts in the Trump administration? Has CNN a fake, potentially created in Moscow? What are Donald Trump's accusations against American intelligence fraught with? Can Vladimir Putin become an obstacle to improving relations between Washington and Moscow?

We discuss these and other issues with the former senior Pentagon employee, vice president of the Lexington Institute in Virginia Daniel Gure , American publicist, former Financial Times correspondent in Moscow David Satter , Professor of Seton-Hall, Maxim Matusevich , Professor of the University of New Jerse.

Eight days before Donald Trump entered the post of President of the United States, when it seemed that the Russian topic would calmly burn out against the background of the plots more relevant for the United States, she suddenly presented surprises. First of all, to the surprise of some observers, it turned out that at key posts in the American government - Secretary of State, Minister of Defense, CIA director - people who are very critical of the Kremlin can be. Secondly, Donald Trump himself, still persistently held on his thesis about Moscow’s non-involvement in the cyber attacks on computers of functionaries of the Democratic Party during the 2016 presidential campaign, after meeting with the leadership of the American intelligence, which presented him a secret dossier, agreed that the Kremlin was behind the hacking of computer networks in the United States. Thirdly, Russia became the main character in history with a report on the existence of compromising evidence on Trump. Donald Trump himself and many call this document a fake, but some American information funds, such as Rolling Stone , for example, see a crisis situation in this story that requires resolution. The conversation is about a dossier collected by a former British intelligence officer, in which, from the words of his sources in Moscow and the surroundings of Trump, it is said that the Kremlin has a dossier with information that compromises the elected president. Information about this dossier, allegedly ordered by the political opponents of Trump, is not news, they circulated in Washington for several months. The news was that they were picked up on the eve of the press conference of Donald Trump on CNN, a respectable means of information, finding a seemingly legal occasion. The reason was that people from American intelligence informed CNN correspondents that the information about the dossier was presented to Trump during a meeting with the leadership of American intelligence services last week, which, as it turned out, did not correspond to the truth. The annoyed Donald Trump angrily fell upon the criticism of both intelligence and CNN during a press conference for the spread of fake.

But let's start in order. What a few days before Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House can be said about his possible policy in relation to Russia?

Donald Trump during a press conference

“Obviously, over the past week, as new data on Russian cyberoperations, Trump gradually changes his position,” says Daniel Gure . - Now he admits that Russia is behind the attacks, he says that all this requires a serious answer, but at the same time adding his usual replicas that many countries lead cyber attacks against the United States. Nevertheless, now we can draw a firm conclusion that the administration of Trump, even with the great desire of the new president, is unlikely to normalize relations with Moscow without a sharp movement towards him from the Kremlin, which, I think, Putin is incapable of. Recent events demonstrate gigantic changes in relation to the Kremlin in the United States and with regard to public opinion, and especially with regard to moods in Congress, where very many lawmakers support the expansion of the sanctions against the Kremlin. Even Trump itself, in principle, does not exclude the preservation of sanctions. So, despite the obvious desire of the elected president to establish good relations with Moscow, circumstances may be stronger than his intentions to implement such a strategy.

-What do you think of sensational information that the Kremlin supposedly has a compromising evidence for Trump, which appeared on CNN a few hours before Trump's press conference?

This is, in my opinion, fantasies. Pure Roman Graham Green "Our man in Havana"

- I got acquainted with the documents on the basis of which this conclusion was made. They look frivolous. It contains links to information received from the third or fourth mouth. The only fact that can be checked is about a person’s meeting from Trump’s entourage in Prague with Russian representatives is already refuted as falsification. Further, the documents contain information about what is allegedly happening inside the Trump organization, and a lot of various information about what is happening in Russia, presented as if they were received from the source. There is not a single person in this world-whether this is a former British intelligence officer who allegedly prepared a report, or anyone else-who would have such good connections in Russia and in Trump’s company to gain access to such secret information. This is, in my opinion, fantasies. The pure romance of Graham Green "Our man in Havana." This is garbage. Information about these materials first appeared a few months ago. American intelligence tried to confirm this information, but she could not do it. So in this situation, in my opinion, Trump's claims to journalists who inflate fake news can be reasonable. This story really makes us ask about journalistic honesty.

- How serious is Donald Trump's frank skirmish with American intelligence services? He publicly expresses their distrust. This attitude of the president to one of the most important state institutions is difficult to recall.

- This is a serious battle that exacerbates the problem of leakage of information from the special services. In the relationship between the White House and intelligence, there were always two occasions for friction. Different administrations had claims to the quality of intelligence. The government always requires accurate and timely information for decision -making. Therefore, when we become witnesses, say, nuclear tests or invasions that no one expected, intelligence becomes an object of criticism. The second is a leak of information, especially when it concerns the most pressing issues of foreign policy: relations with Iran, Russia or China. In a word, it can be assumed that the administration of Trump and the Intelligence Committee will have difficult relations, if only Mike Pompeo and Dan Coats, who will head the CIA and the National Intelligence Management, will not change the situation.

- The candidate for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson refused to discuss the future of sanctions at the hearing, recognizing, however, a place among the main foreign policy instruments. Applicants for other leading positions in Trump’s office, including the Minister of Defense and the Director of the CIA, are about the need to confront Russia. Are there any premature talk about the imminent beginning of the abolition of the sanctions against the Kremlin?

I think Russia is lucky if the sanctions are not tightened

- It is. Given the Kremlin’s behavior and the real indignation that American lawmakers experience, the abolition of sanctions looks impossible. I think Russia is lucky if the sanctions are not tightened. Trump may have his own ideas regarding relations with the Kremlin, but he will not receive support in the congress, where he has practically no allies in this matter. With a great degree of reliability, it is assumed that the new administration will increase defense costs. We will begin the rearmament, attempts will be made to slow down the expansion of China in the Asian region. Condition with the Trump administration will be a serious challenge for Vladimir Putin. If Putin has hopes for achieving a certain deal with Trump, he should not deceive, ”says Daniel Gure.

- David Satter, that you first of all saw significant in these hearings on the nomination for the main posts in the Donald Trump office?

“I think that all the same understanding in American society and in the American Senate about the situation in Russia is already so developed that even such a naive person as Trump cannot withstand this,” says David Satter . -The feeling that oppositionists are still killed in Russia, that Russia is conducting aggressive policy-this has been seeping into the American consciousness. Pursuing a policy that does not take this into account will be difficult. I think that Tillerson recognizes this, he understands this, and it will be a factor in the future.

-Have you discovered something new for yourself as a result of the press conference of Donald Trump?

-The most important thing here is that he is still ready to listen. There were doubts about this, because during the election campaign he listened to few people, but now, apparently, when people present evidence to him, he believe, common sense to take it at the expense. I think that in many aspects his plans for Russia will be changed. Now he has access to reconnaissance information, now he should work with Congress, Senate, members of his office - experienced people in many ways. He must still take into account their opinion, especially regarding issues regarding Russia, which are secondary issues for Trump.

- Maxim Matusevich, what did you see during the hearings on candidates for posts of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Defense of the United States?

Retired General James Mattis during the hearing

“If you asked me the same question a couple of days ago, I would probably have sounded more pessimistic,” says Maxim Matusevich . - It seems to me that the system begins to work. I followed the hearings with a fraction of amazement. Because the appointments to the CIA and the State Department, and the retired General Mattis, who was appointed to the Ministry of Defense, all three took a very stringent position in relation to Russia, all three spoke out quite categorically in favor of the American support of NATO. That is, all this chatter during the election campaign, which created the turbulence of geopolitical and within the country, is leaving. Such a feeling, I hope that it will be so, now everything is included in a more calm predictable channel. The question, of course, is how these appointed people who are experienced, obviously thinking, educated and understanding the international situation are much better than their boss, how much they will succeed, it seems to me, let’s say, to isolate him from making, not to give him the opportunity to make any absurd decisions.

- If, of course, to believe that these absurd decisions are really sitting in his head, that he is really the person for whom he gives himself in public events, and does not play.

-Of course, the fact of the matter is that we do not know and he himself most likely does not know this. This unpredictability, in principle, made us all be nervous properly.

-David Satter, on the day of the newspaper Wall Street Journal, your article was published in which you urge the senators to ask Tillerson about whether he knows something about the involvement of the Russian authorities in the explosions of houses in Russian cities in the 99th year, about the murder of Boris Nemtsov opposite the Kremlin, that Russia did not provide the US Prevent a terrorist attack in Boston. What, in fact, is your goal?

- Naturally, it would be good if he were interested in these crimes of different and contributed to the investigation and detection of information on this subject. But the minimum - he must understand what happened. Any Secondary School should understand that there is a huge amount of evidence and evidence that all this was done by the Russian authorities, I mean the case of Tsarnaev, whom they intentionally missed, I am talking about an older brother now, knowing well how dangerous he was.

- You represent the Kremlin in your article, in fact, in the role of a criminal regime. But after all, by and large, if so, then with this regime, it would seem, you cannot deal with anything as if nothing had happened? What do you offer?

-I answered this question many times that we should still deal with Russia. Russia is an important country, if you want, you don’t want, Putin is the leader of this country. There are many questions where we can agree and we can have some kind of relationship, but we must understand who we are dealing with. For the sake of the future of Russia and the whole world, we cannot pretend that a person has come to power with the help of an act of terror, and this is good or it is acceptable. We must always emphasize this for Russia and for others that this is unacceptable. That the murder of hostages, how they were killed in Beslan, for example, give such a criminal order to open fire from flamethrowers in the gym, complete hostages, including children, we must let Russian leaders know that this is a crime against humanity, they should know this. But, of course, we are not going to fight with Russia about this, but in the intellectual, moral sense we must be uncompromising. I hope that this will help us in the future.

- Maxim, it is interesting that after the hearing on the candidacy of Tillerson, Senator Marco Rubio spoke almost like our interlocutor David Satter. Marco Rubio said that, from his point of view, there was no moral clarity in Tillerson's statements. He said that he was not sure whether Tillerson’s candidacy would support him. From your point of view, we could expect at these hearings direct condemnations from candidates for ministerial positions of the Kremlin’s actions and talk about the need to tighten sanctions?

Rex Tilleryson during hearings in the Senate

“It seems to me that they are already happening.” Rubio from the very beginning, as I recall, took a rather tough position in relation to the Kremlin. The questions that he asked Tillerson reflect his doubts about whether he can function adequately in a new position, whether close relations with Putin, especially with Sechin, have. Tillerson's answers surprised me. Because I did not notice a big difference between his position and Rubio's position. Again, he speaks out harshly, he accuses Russia of aggression against Ukraine, he opposes the annexation of Crimea, he supports NATO. In general, these are positions that should be close to Rubio. It seems to me that there was such an element: Rubio simply expressed what he wanted to express, designated his position, anti -Russian sentiments. I use this expression without accusing anyone, I just state the fact. They really entered the mainstream in recent weeks especially, it reflects it too. Tillerson's answers seemed adequate to me, and I would be surprised if they upset Rubio.

- Senator Rubio was not satisfied with the answers of Rex Tillerson. David, were you satisfied or expected more?

- I think that this is absolutely not surprising - such answers, and maybe a little reason for optimism. Because a person still understands that he can no longer function as the head of an oil company, now has real political responsibility.

-David, literally on the eve of the hearing, on the eve of Trump’s press conference, this sensational information appeared in the CNN program that the Kremlin supposedly had a Trump's incriminator. Trump rejected this story, apparently, this story was not confirmed, these documents can really be false. How do you even consider this story? How to make Trump to recognize the Russian trace, make Trump change his opinion on Russia and the Kremlin or something else?

I think this is a Russian provocation. I read this dossier very carefully

- I think this is a Russian provocation. I read this dossier very carefully. And in style, by manipulation, by the power of imagination, how they can come up with some incidents that, I think, have never actually happened, it is all very similar to the KGB-FSB product.

- My interlocutor Daniel Gure compares this story with Graham Green’s satirical novel “Our Man in Havana”, by the way, there is also British intelligence.

- This, I think, is exactly what we have here is an attempt by the Russian authorities to manipulate emotions in America in their favor in order to discredit American institutions. What was the result of the so -called exposure? The result that Trump began to quarrel with intelligence was practically accusing them of Nazism. This is all in favor of the Russian leadership. The Russian authorities deny the authenticity and veracity of materials in this dossier, they declare that they did not create this dossier themselves. Their goal is to create enmity, confusion and misunderstanding within America. This material will be very easily accepted by those who do not like Trump.

-Maxim Matusevich, how do you interpret the appearance of this allegedly sensational information that Moscow has a certain compromising evidence, before the press conference, where, how could you expect, the elected president will protect the intention to improve relations with Moscow ?

- In general, this so -called "sensational information", as far as I know, has existed since July. I heard that many journalists, including those with whom I am familiar, were approaching them some faces who wanted to share this information with them. Я не понимаю, почему именно сейчас она была представлена президенту и вновь избранному президенту. На мой взгляд, ничего сенсационного в этой информации нет. Сенсация заключается в том, что сейчас о ней заговорил не только вашингтонский истеблишмент, а также население, те, кто обращает на это внимание в Соединенных Штатах Америки.

– Дэвид, вы, как член американского журналистского сообщества, как относитесь к этой акции CNN, обнародовавшей то, что выглядит фальшивкой? Я лично слегка посочувствовал корреспонденту CNN, которого Трамп довольно грубо осек во время пресс-конференции: "Вы создаете фальшивки, я с вами говорить не буду". С другой стороны, это выглядит доказательством жалоб Трампа на предвзятость прессы.

– Если журналист не может подтвердить такие голые скандальные утверждения, он не должен это повторять. Кроме того, источники CNN в разведке совершили преступление, когда они комментировали эти материалы, фактически подтвердили существование этого материала. Они не имели права этого делать. Что касается самой CNN – это нарушение журналистской этики, потому что они не имели ни малейшего подтверждения информации в этом досье.

– Может обнародование документов быть попыткой оказать политическое давление на Трампа со стороны определенных кругов в США?

- It is possible. Имея в виду атмосферу, которая сейчас существует в Америке, публикации этого материала – это результат действия нескольких из многочисленных недоброжелателей Трампа. Естественно, такая информация не должна быть обнародована, потому что это порочит репутацию человека без всякого основания. Так случилось фактически сейчас. Мы видели даже в предвыборной кампании, насколько нормальная журналистская этика была просто выброшена.

– Максим Матусевич, подытоживая все, что мы узнали в последние дни о людях, которые будут в ближайшем окружении Дональда Трампа, их взглядах, да и о самом Трампе, возьметесь сделать прогноз о будущем американо-российских отношений? Последует их улучшение?

Я не уверен, что Путину нужны друзья. Образ врага нужен, образ врага сплачивает, образ врага отвлекает население от сложной экономической ситуации

– У меня большие сомнения по поводу перспектив улучшения отношений между Соединенными Штатами и Россией. После выборов Трампа, насколько я понимаю, в России среди правящих кругов возникла некоторая эйфория по этому вопросу, во всяком случае то, что мы читали и видели. Но мы начинаем видеть, что дружить с Путиным сложно. Я не уверен, что Путину нужны друзья. Образ врага нужен, образ врага сплачивает, образ врага отвлекает население от сложной экономической ситуации. И если не Америка, то кто? Так что все эти разговоры о большой грядущей дружбе между Трампом и Путиным, по-моему, они несколько преувеличены, и я бы не ожидал никаких эйфорий в будущем.

– Дэниэл Гурэ говорит мне еще об одном факторе. Он говорит, что в принципе антикремлевские, наверное, так правильно выразиться, настроения в Соединенных Штатах, в том числе в Конгрессе, столь сильны, что для того, чтобы что-то переменить, если бы даже Трамп этого захотел, требуются большие усилия со стороны Владимира Путина, на что Владимир Путин не пойдет.

Вопрос остается все тот же: насколько Трамп в этой новой администрации будет задавать тон и будет что-то решать

- I agree with this. Я хочу опять же обратить внимание на сегодняшние слушания, вопрос остается все тот же: насколько Трамп в этой новой администрации будет задавать тон и будет что-то решать. Потому что ситуация, как мы знаем, довольно беспрецедентная или, как бы выбранный президент сказал, беспрезидентная. То есть человек некомпетентный, человек не очень обучаемый оказался у кормила власти. Сегодняшние слушания показали, что в этой администрации, которая еще несколько дней назад казалась некоторым из нас собранием довольно странных персонажей, довольно карикатурного вида, действительно появляются люди компетентные и люди ответственные. Поэтому посмотрим, удастся ли найти такую игровую комнату, куда они засунут нового президента, дадут ему красивую игрушку и смогут принимать решения. Потому что опять же эти слушания министра обороны Маттиса, слушания Помпео, главы ЦРУ, и слушания госсекретаря Тиллерсона, будущего госсекретаря, они показывают, что это люди, которые склонны следовать более конвенциональной программе. So let's see. Но я не жду никакой большой дружбы.

– Дэвид, наш собеседник отзывается о будущем президенте США как о человеке не очень далеком, которому необходима, как он говорит, игрушка. Правильный ли это подход или все-таки Трамп может удивить многих?

– Я недостаточно его знаю, чтобы его охарактеризовать, но мы видели, насколько он уловил настроения в Америке. Он был один из 16 кандидатов среди республиканцев, он победил. Никто не думал, что у него есть шанс. Потом он победил на общенациональных выборах. Поэтому, я думаю, опасно его недооценить, он что-то понимает, очевидно.

– И, видимо, тот факт, что он назначает в свою администрацию умных, глубоких, образованных, очень опытных, независимых, весомых людей, тоже о чем-то говорит?

– Да, естественно, он человек очень нетрадиционный для президента, он человек тщеславный, поверхностный во многом. Но я не исключаю, что он человек довольно проницательный по-своему.

– Вы указали сейчас на ряд его побед, может в этом ряду оказаться победа над Кремлем и Путиным?

– Бог знает. Путин просто сам себя погубит в конце концов. Но, может быть, мы не будем ничего делать, чтобы его спасти, я надеюсь.