The American dream of Russians

Inauguration of Donald Trump as a big holiday for Russia. Will their hopes come true for the new US president? The guest of the studio is political scientist Nikolai Petrov. Presenter Elena Rykovtseva.

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Elena Rykovtseva: Now there is an inauguration of the new president of the United States of America. I represent our guest today - Nikolai Petrov, scientist, political scientist. And I want to introduce another guest of our program - this is Donald Trump, such a wonderful person, talking, by the way. “I have no other choice on how to dismiss you,” says this doll. Many years ago, it was given to me, as it turned out, it was not for nothing that this gift was in the subject. Here such a holiday turned on Russian federal channels, I no longer knew how to compete with them. The host of the main show of the political Channel One, which, of course, was dedicated to the inauguration of Donald Trump, went out in a butterfly. That is, it is for them as an Oscar ceremony. I really did not know what to do, how to outdo them, so I dressed like this doll Donald Trump. How do you explain such an endless passion and such excitement, such admiration, such a joy of Russian television about today's event that it is finally legitimate?

Nikolai Petrov: It seems to me that the expectation, and then the disappointment with us in connection with the American presidents go along the sinusoid, like American or as Russian hills. In this sense, by the end of the second period of President Obama, a feeling arose in the Kremlin and through media in the broad masses-that it was because of it that we have a huge number of various problems, from sanctions and ending with the economic crisis and so on. The arrival of the new president, which is obvious in many ways the opposite of Obama, obviously changes the rules of the game, not only and not only in the United States, but in the West as a whole - it will be good for us. It is good that he is a Republican, it’s good that he had already made statements that why not get along with Russia. It is also good that he closes that page in Russian-American relations, which has been hopelessly spoiled over the past 8 years.

Elena Rykovtseva: That is, everything is bad as the old year, with Obama say goodbye as a year, let him take away all the bad, and everything good will come with this. This is already at the level of myths and legends, even superstitions, I would say, that is, they believe in it, as in some sign.

Nikolai Petrov: I think that in many respects those expectations that are associated with the unity of the West and with a single western position in relation to Russia, they will obviously be confirmed. And the fact that Trump will build any special and friendly relations with Russia, there are great doubts about this. At least at first there are such hopes in the Kremlin.

Elena Rykovtseva: Today Dmitry Peskov said once again officially, the position of the Russian side to Sergey Brilev reported, specially gave an interview that will be shown completely, but one piece is being broadcast all the time: this is not our person, why are you associated us with him! Why are they so afraid? Well, tell me that ours, we chose. Why not be proud of this - we chose it.

Nikolai Petrov: I think that the Kremlin’s official position is quite reasonable and fully answers that once Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin formulated during his first meeting with the then President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, when he said that we never play the power that is currently at the helm, we always support it. And in this sense, in relation to the already departed administration of Obama, too, only recently there were direct and very stringent unpleasant statements, before that everything was within the framework of some kind of diplomatic canon. In the same way in relation to Trump. Firstly, excessive pedaling that we hope for some special relationship with his arrival and he has some kind of connection with us, we somehow helped him in the elections-this obviously weakens his own position and reduces those expectations that are associated with his arrival. Therefore, it is quite logical and reasonable.

Elena Rykovtseva: Is it unpleasant, is it unprofitable to Trump himself that they hold on to him in Russia, cling to him, rejoice at him? He himself is a plus, minus at himself?

Nikolai Petrov: I think this does not care very much until it has already poured into concrete accusations already American. Russia has never played any serious role in the American elections, except this time, and it is not known whether it is good or bad by and large. But it is clear that Trump is also not particularly interested in someone to consider or declare that he will be good for another country, and not for the United States.

Elena Rykovtseva: American Russians, citizens of America, who voted for Trump, are very offended when we say in Russia that they voted under the influence of Russian propaganda. They say that you poorly know our situation, we voted for Trump, but propaganda has nothing to do with it. We want to listen to the opinion of the doctor - this is the American doctor Dmitry Mouse, who, it is very mildly necessary, is not a supporter of Vladimir Putin, no Russian propaganda does not watch any television, but he categorically voted for Donald Trump. I propose to study his argument what he said.

Dmitry Mouse: I have no Russian channels at all, because I do not watch Russian television, I am not particularly interested in this. Elections in the United States are mainly dependent on local problems, domestic political problems, mainly the economy, secondly from world problems. The attitude of the American elections to Russia is very distant. Here, Russia worries voters approximately how North Korea or Pakistan excites in Russia. Clinton had no specific ideas, plans for what to do with the economy, Trump clearly has a plan for some significant changes that we will see in the future. At least, there will clearly be some changes, and with Clinton everything would have continued in the same rut, what is called stagnation. Firstly, I have been working in healthcare, what has been happening in healthcare has occurred for the past 8 years, simply, in my opinion, a disaster. And in principle, I believe that the country was going in the wrong direction, it must be changed. How successful it will be is unknown. At least there will be some change in the direction. A person who has absolutely nothing to do with the political system, a person who was almost solely against all, against the Republican Party, for the most part, against the Democratic Party, against Bush, Clintons, Obama, 90% of the media, nevertheless, he only achieved such success. This indicates the extraordinary of his personality. To believe in political promises is simply naive, but at least in promises there is something reasonable that, in my opinion and the opinion of others, it can change the situation in the country, it is worth counting on it. When a person offers absolutely nothing new - this is utopia.

Elena Rykovtseva: Contrary to everything, it is respect for Dmitry, in this case, that the whole world is against him, and he achieved.

Nikolai Petrov: It seems to me that in the position, and Dmitry, obviously, expresses not just his personal position, but as I know, in many ways, the joint position of Russian emigration in the United States, much that Obama did, was unpleasant for these people. And therefore, the arrival of a leader, who categorically does not accept much of what was done and the whole paradigm of what Obama did, is already playing Trump. Some sensations were connected with Obama that we left, and the Soviet Union is returning to us, socialism returns to us, the equality and the need to redistribute between the rich and the poor is returned, and somewhere for which we left, the freedom of entrepreneurship, the prize to the one who is most capable is most active and so on. That is, all these factors played in favor of Trump. This is amazing. My contacts in the United States of American and Russian origin, how much the polar people hold positions about the same social status. The Americans, almost all my friends in horror and during the campaign, and after the election results were announced, the Russians are almost one saying what brilliant political animal Trump and how surprising is that everything turned out so wonderful.

Elena Rykovtseva: Moreover, I want to emphasize once again that the Russians who are at completely different political poles. Of course, there is such a “cotton” America, as they say, the older generation, which really, without knowing the language, sits and watches the Russian TV and votes under the influence of the TV - this is also true. But there are their children who have nothing to do with this, but still they see and find something in it. That is, the political positions are different, and they have one Trump.

Nikolai Petrov: Not wanting to offend anyone, I will say that the division inside the Americans that we saw between the capitals and the province, when the capital, obviously voted the vast majority for a democratic candidate, no matter whether they liked this candidate or not, the province supported Trump, and in this confrontation those Russians who live in the same capitals, they were just with this American. a depth.

Elena Rykovtseva: I have a lot of acquaintances from the writer's intelligentsia of the American-Russian, who categorically do not accept him. And I have several familiar Russian doctors in America, they are for Trump, and for some reason the writers are against it.

Nikolai Petrov: I think this is just explained quite simply. Because doctors most corporately feel affected by what is called Obamacare. We know that in America there are two powerful corporations - these are doctors and lawyers whose encroachment on whose interests is politically very risky. On the interests of doctors, this reform was very negatively affected, so the position of doctors is corporately understandable.

Elena Rykovtseva: Of course, we will be shown protests, which in large cities, people in very large numbers went outside, and large enough to say that these are mass protests. The second part of America, which voted for Trump, who has a holiday today, does not insult that their choice is all the time questioned? They hoped that the electors would not behave the same as they should lead themselves, violate the laws, all human and legal laws, now they go outside. There is no offense there, why are you spoiling our holiday?

Nikolai Petrov: I think that the elections really very strongly split the Americans. Although what we still see, it is quite in the legal framework of the political process. Protests in one form or another are always associated with the defeat of the candidate for whom people worked for many months. This is also the effect that the elections really play a colossal role in the United States, and who comes to the president’s position is very important. And the fact that the elections are not a moment of voting, but this is many months of struggle, in which hundreds of thousands of people participate as volunteers and who very much make people. Therefore, when the result is declared and our candidate has not passed, Frustration is natural, the negative reaction of people is natural. Moreover, today they see that those who voted for Hillary Clinton see not only the victory of another candidate, but also the risk in general for the entire political order, for American political institutions, for the fact that they are used to considering the United States of America.

Elena Rykovtseva: In the Russian television shows of political, I have already caught such a note that we will not give offense of our Trump, we will defend him, that now protests will begin, in which, of course, the shoes of all sorts of shots will throw him. If earlier the "orange revolutions" were arranged by the Americans in Kyrgyzstan, in Georgia, in Ukraine, now the "Orange Revolution" will be arranged in America itself and, of course, Russia will resist this, like any "orange revolution" and protect Trump. In your opinion, it sounds anecdotal, but nevertheless, the question remains serious: these protests will be organically natural or there are still some political forces that will not calm down and will crave revenge, feeding them?

Nikolai Petrov: I think today a lot of things will become clear and it will become clear how Trump as the President, today at 12 o’clock he has already become president, how much he is the president of all Americans, how much he differs from Trump as a candidate or even Trump as a chosen, but not yet coming to power of the president. I hope that it differs and is very different. In fact, the situation with protests will develop further on this. And the most important thing is not so much protests by citizens as an extremely worsening relationship between Trump and the press, which is called in the states of media, which are fraught with very serious political complications.

Elena Rykovtseva: I just wanted to ask you about this, what will indicate that Trump has become the president of all Americans? Because his attack, the escapade during a press conference, when he simply allowed his emotions to swallow himself, it was a really uncontrollable reaction, he could not cope or did not want to cope with his emotions, he may not want to cope with them, will act impulsively every time, not only once, the second time, the third. How do we find out that he is trying to become president for everyone, by what markers?

Nikolai Petrov: Firstly, today's speech itself is a very important thing, since it is not an improvisation, but this is largely a program of what it will implement as a 45th President of the United States, this is a product product, and not Trump as such. It seems to me that really stylistically there is a tremendous difference between the current president and most of his predecessors, related to the fact that the predecessors were politicians. The first time we see the president who was never a politician as such. Trump style is absolutely normal and organic as a stylistics of a media character, scandalous works in a plus, and not a minus, but absolutely unacceptable for a policy of such a level as the President of the United States. I think that in any case, Trump will be difficult to rebuild. What we will see today is how this is the position of the new president’s team, and not just himself, not just improvisation, how much it meets the interests of the United States as a whole, and how directed to reconciliation, and not to continue the split that was during the campaign.

Elena Rykovtseva: Here is a question that is now worried about everyone, who is not very versed in the intricacies of politics associated with how many votes what is accepted, what is canceled. Nikolai, please explain to us now in Russia a colossal belief that Trump will come tomorrow, will relieve sanctions and we finally break in friendly rows to America, our accounts are unlocked, our villas are again with us. What can he himself and what he himself cannot, it is not necessary to Trump, any president of America, that he can, for example, in connection with sanctions?

Nikolai Petrov: Legally, the sanctions that were imposed by Obama’s orders, and these are just the most important sectoral sanctions for us, are just financial sanctions that do not allow us to borrow money not only in the United States, but in the West in general, these sanctions were introduced by President one, and the other can remove the other. Another thing is that today in the Congress of the United States a bill is being discussed, which is called to record the sanctions by the decision of the congress, and if this happens, then Trump, like any other president, will not be able to do anything.

Elena Rykovtseva: Is it not fixed yet?

Nikolai Petrov: Until now, part of the sanctions, the first wave, which is associated with the "Magnitsky list", was the decision of the Congress, and no president can revise them, only the congress can do it. And those sanctions that were adopted by the Obama order can be removed by President Trump himself, by his order.

Elena Rykovtseva: But you don’t think that perhaps Trump himself is interested in taking away responsibility and not making decisions, so let these sanctions be insured by the decision of the congress, then he washes his hands, there is no decision on it? He does not want to quarrel with Vladimir Putin, with Russia, but he says: nothing depends on me. He himself is probably interested in such a plot.

Nikolai Petrov: Even if so, there really depends on him a lot and without a formal decision to relieve sanctions. Here, at least two important points. One is the position of the United States and the rigidity of the position in relation to the West, therefore, European sanctions. И второй – это не сами формальные санкции, а то, как жестко Соединенные Штаты следят за соблюдением этих санкций, как жестко они будут наказывать западные, итальянские, например, банки, которые могут так или иначе предпринимать какие-то шаги и способствовать решению финансовых проблем наших, предположим, государственных компаний.

Елена Рыковцева: Итак, либо Конгресс фиксирует эту ситуацию, либо он не успевает.

Николай Петров: Здесь нет временного ограничения, Конгресс вправе принять это решение, и по настроению и республиканцев, и демократов вполне может набрать голоса, необходимые для этого и необходимые для преодоления вето президента, если Трамп накладывает на это решение вето. Поэтому сам факт прохождения законопроекта в Конгрессе – это очень серьезный сдерживающий момент, который не позволяет Трампу предпринимать какие-то резкие шаги, иначе Конгресс в свою очередь предпримет шаги со своей стороны. Это, в каком-то плане, система сдержек и противовесов, о которой всегда говорят применительно к американской политике.

Елена Рыковцева: То есть в этом смысле, если говорить жаргоном, губу можно не раскатывать по части снятия санкций, скорее всего, так просто это точно не случится?

Николай Петров: До тех пор, пока имидж России не изменится, что вполне может происходить сейчас, если будет возможность договариваться с Трампом по Сирии, по целому ряду других сюжетов.

Елена Рыковцева: И тут, конечно, возникает вопрос, что для Трампа является виной России? Мы прекрасно понимаем, за что была наказана Россия, – это Крым, это Донбасс, это участие в украинской войне, в которой она активно продолжает быть задействованной, Российская Федерация, как бы она ни отнекивалась от своей вовлеченности в этот конфликт. Тем не менее, наказание последовало за это. Вопрос: считает ли сам Трамп достаточно убедительной причиной, существенной вину Российской Федерации или он считает, что воля народа, Крым, референдум, народ захотел и пр.?

Николай Петров: Это очень важный вопрос. Что Трамп считает на самом деле, не знает никто, потому что он может менять свою позицию. Но до сих пор он не был еще президентом, а был на подходе к этому посту. Сейчас все может измениться. Что важно, почему Кремль считает, что с Трампом можно будет договариваться, – это то, что в действиях каждого лидера, и лидера Соединенных Штатов в первую очередь, есть ценности и позиция, занимаемая в соответствии с ценностями, и интересы. Трамп, как представитель предпринимательского корпуса, откровенно говорит, что мы можем договариваться обо всем, и это вопрос политического торга – мы вам одно, вы нам другое. И этим он уже в глазах Кремля в выгодную сторону отличается от Обамы, который говорил, что есть вещи, принципиально важные для Соединенных Штатов, и здесь я отступить не могу.

Елена Рыковцева: Или от Меркель, которая говорит, что нам это невыгодно, но это принципиально, и она стоит насмерть в борьбе со своим бизнесом, с антисанкционным лобби.

Николай Петров: Да, это верно. Единственная проблема возникает, есть ли что-то такое весомое, что мы можем предложить Трампу, в ответ на что он может пойти на какие-то позитивные, с нашей точки зрения, шаги в отношении России.

Елена Рыковцева: То есть вы не исключаете, что торг уместен и что буквально Трамп может обменять нечто, мы не знаем что, на позицию Америки по Крыму?

Николай Петров: Позиция Трампа – это не есть позиция Соединенных Штатов. И здесь любые его резкие движения в сторону от той линии, которую мы видели в последние три года, они чреваты противодействием в том числе со стороны Конгресса, в том числе со стороны республиканцев в этом Конгрессе. Поэтому он даже не будет предпринимать каких-то шагов, зная, что на них последует негативная реакция. И в этом смысле он гораздо менее свободен сегодня как президент, чем когда он был политиком-одиночкой, который мог заявлять все, что угодно. Но, тем не менее, конечно, какое-то пространство для маневра есть.