An exhausted postmodern time

Unexpected for most experts, Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election raised many questions that politicians and political scientists are now trying to find answers to. How will the US relationship with other countries, including Russia, will develop during the reign of such an unusual president? What is trumpism, how is it inspired and how does the world change? This is a conversation with a publicist, doctor of historical sciences Lilia Shevtsova.

- Lilia Fedorovna, Barack Obama ina farewell speech in Chicago spoke of her achievements: overcoming the recession, establishing relations with Cuba and Iran, reform of medical insurance and legalization of same -sex marriages, destroying Ben Laden's Asseme ... from the part of his reign, they seem to be a magnificent era. However, now a man came to the White House, burning with the desire to cross out everything that Obama did. Is this an accident due to the features of the archaic American electoral system, or pattern?

-Dmitry, it’s good that you have raised a topic that allows us to go beyond the limits of political microbiology: who “hacked” whom in America, whether Putin and Trump will love each other and whether Trump really had fun with girls in the Russian Ritz-Carleton. How many adrenaline in the media audience took these discussions - and it is pointless!

Obama left, having 60% of Americans support. Such a rating can cause the envy of any leader

So, the newly left President Obama. He deserves that we note its significance for America and the world and its drama. The very fact of the election of the black President of the only global power, which is still a core of the world order, means a new chapter in American history. And the very fact of his two terms of the presidency - the Americans elected him twice! - says what the potential for updating and rethinking in this society. After all, slavery and racism were woven not only into American psychology and traditions, but also into the constitution.

Obama left, having 60% of Americans support. Such a rating can cause the envy of any leader. I think that this support is largely due not even to the successes of Obama’s policy, but by his personality and his impeccable behavior - the slightest hint of ambiguity and hypocrisy, and an amazing sense of dignity, causing undoubted respect even among his opponents.

Trump strengthened the decaying postmodern to Kretsheno! To the screech! To the point of absurdity!

And with all this, we see his drama, which was laid down not only in his vision of the world, but inevitability to pay the price for his victory and the logic of the story in which he had to rule. So, Obama came to the White House under the slogan "Hope and Change" - "Hope and Change." But we know that excessive hopes almost always turn out to be delayed disappointment. And the more hopes, the stronger the disappointment. We have already passed this in our recent history.

Obama came to the White House at the sunset of postmodernism - a whole stage in world history, which has become the time of relativity, political eclecticism and rejection of principles both within liberal democracies and in the international arena. And Obama became a victim of the time that has exhausted himself: when he could no longer hold the spinning fabric of world order and global stability. He was forced to observe how the European Union fell into a stupor. He saw how, instead of the atmosphere of universal friendship and consent, which he dreamed about, a vacuum arose in the world, which is trying to fill the tough and aggressive "night wolves" represented by Russia, China and Iran. He watched how they were trying to push the limp and pampered Western "television" from the stage. An example of the anti-liberal international has become contagious for Turkey, a NATO member, is another problem for Washington.

But instead of trying to find an alternative to postmodern unprincipled, Obama chose a different path - he decided to hide from world problems, leading America from the international scene and limiting its global responsibility. In fact, Obama became an American leader who abandoned the American tradition of messianism and leadership. He became a pragmatist, hiding behind idealistic rhetoric. But how did his flight end in the shadow and get rid of obligations? Having decided to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, Obama created a situation that facilitated the emergence of an even more brutal terrorist group of ISIS, the so -called "Islamic state." Refusing to restrain Assad, Obama was forced to observe bloodshed in Syria and the emergence of a giant wave of refugees, which crushed European stability.

Obama broke the support - not even wanting it himself - not expecting the current world order

President Obama tried to eliminate America’s responsibility for the world order - in this he saw his mission of the transformer. But abandoning America's previous obligations, having lost interest in Europe and the transatlantic partnership, Obama, thereby broke the support-without wanting to even expect it-the current world order, which is based on the leadership of America as a guarantor of the global status quo. Having abandoned its obligations, America itself began to undermine regional and global security and balance in the world system. Not only Europe without American shoulder was confused; Regional security systems began to collapse - in the Middle East and Asia.

Moreover, abandoning world leadership, preferring the ephemeral formula for "leadership from the back", Obama thereby struck the American political system, which is now being built on the basis of the principles of ideology, messianism and world responsibility. Yes, America, like Russia, relies on sovereignty, only with another sign - unlike Russian unlawful civilization, America offers a legal alternative. Founding America to his own sink, Obama deprived her of what the Americans call “National Purpose”, that is, national goal -setting. It became obvious that the American system (as well as Russian) is based on a globalist vision and the desire for ideological expansion. Devoid of these principles, the system begins to lose movement

Obama - what an idealist he is! - I wanted to run away from the world, demonstrate modesty and lack of ambitions in order to create a new situation of friendliness and solidarity. But he leaves the world in disorientation; He leaves new conflicts that are not clear how to resolve. His "transformation project" ended in failure. So the idealist and inspired dreamer Obama became a terminator, complicating not only the fate of America, but also the solution of world problems. But he did not want this - he followed the desires of American society, which is tired of war and world responsibility!

Trump, which has become a reaction to eclecticism, itself is a grotesque symbol of postmodernism, denying generally all the principles and norms

I apologize - I spoke. But Obama is much more interesting than the hero of another plot. And now, in fact, to your question about Donald Trump - is it an accident or a pattern? I am not a fatalist, especially in the assessment of the events. It is always easy to call a pattern, and there is no need to guess about its origins. And, nevertheless, even if there were no amazing helplessness of other republican candidates, if it were not for the amazing - almost animal - the intuition of Trump, who caught the “wave” of moods, I think that any new president of the United States, whether it would be faced with the problem of the crisis of postmodernism. In short, with the consequences of globalization, political correctness, the absence of ideological guidelines and a wave of national-populism that has arisen-as reactions to this eclecticism. It is not known how they would react to all this, but they would be forced to do it. Consequently, Trump's arrival is in many ways an accident that no one foresaw, for few are aware of the tendency, being inside it. But at the same time, this accident is a reflection of an existing pattern. The latter finds a manifestation of a part of the American society of Washington eclecticism and the political class, which is its exponent.

But there is a paradox here! And what else! Trump, which has become a reaction to eclecticism, itself is a grotesque symbol of postmodernism, denying generally all principles and norms. He became the embodiment of reality, which is created by consciousness, sometimes painful. Therefore, his arrival itself should only strengthen the crisis of the American establishment and the American system itself, which, in the expression of Fukuyama, is already dysfunctional for so long.

Woe to an American establishment that is used to working in a completely different format!

It is important that Trump and his team are unlikely to get America, and along with it the West from an ideological crisis. But deepening it, they can facilitate the arrival of the new leader who will think about the new historical mission of America and its responsibility as a ridge of world order.

- So, the most important politician in the world, for at least 4 years, is an eccentric, swearing with its ill -wishers on Twitter. First, this is shocking, but then you begin to think that in this violation of the rules there is both charm and persuasiveness. Moreover, such behavior is quite consonant with the time when there are no ideologies, the policy is indistinguishable from show business, state structures are engaged in trolling, and facts replaces the post-truth. The markets, unlike political experts, react to the election of Trump tall, and no panic is observed. Perhaps that which seems dangerous eccentricity, is the power of Trump, which turned out to be more advanced, better understanding today than his rivals?

Postmodernism has established itself as a state of peace and as its perception, only after the fall of the USSR

- Undoubtedly, Trump is a reflection and trend of our time. This is the time of Interregnum, as the Italian Marxist Anthony Gramsha would call it. Another definition of this time was given by the Polish-English sociologist-Sigmunt Bauman. He defined our time as Liquid Modernity - "flowing modernity" when everything is blurred and there are no boundaries between principles and norms. There is no friend - neither the enemy, nor peace - no war, nor law - no lawlessness: everything was mixed in one glass. Yes, you are right-this is the time of "post-truths" when the truth does not exist, since reality is made by our consciousness and there is not even the need for Fact-Checking. We have reached the bottom or top, as you want, a situation of uncertainty. Meanwhile, she was selected slowly, since the time of the French structuralists of the 70s and the time of my beloved Arnold Toynbee, who wrote about the sunset of Western influence on the world. But postmodernism established itself as a state of peace and as its perception, only after the fall of the USSR - in 1991. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the need for the fight against ideologies and the struggle for the minds of citizens disappeared. The liberal civilization disappeared the need to justify oneself and confidence in the serene movement arose without any ideals - to success and prosperity.

Shirak and Sarkozy, Berlusconi, Schroeder - all of them are the leaders of the “turnover”, which does not require the following principles.

Personal integration of the Russian class of Rante to the West is also an example of postmodernism.

Meetings of the Valdai club in Russia, to which Western politicians and experts constantly fly on - is this not an example of a rejection of principles in the name of eclecticism!

The Minsk Agreements on the exit from the war in the Donbass, when Russia is both a participant in confrontation and a moderator and an arbiter, is a superodermanism super -modernism.

Trump destroys logic and extends an exhausted time

But the whole point is that this story itself has put a slow -off bomb under itself. The rejection of the standards either compliance with double standards complicated the formation of a strategy and the response to numerous challenges of Western society itself. What is Brexit? This is a rebellion against postmodern eclecticism and the attempt of the British to return to modern, that is, to the old traditional values, the defender of which the state always acted. The growing popularity of the extreme left and extremely right in Europe is also a reaction to postmodernism and the desire of European society to find support points in a return to past landmarks of state protection and traditional morality.

Of course, Trump embarrasses. It destroys logic and extends an exhausted time. Trump in America, on the one hand, is a reflection of a rebellion against Washington eclectic, but on the other, it is an expression of eclecticism, which has become an absolute. By this he confuses and disorients. Trump managed to deceive the need for time and society. He strengthened the decaying postmodern to Khresheno! To the screech! To the point of absurdity!

All hope for the automatism of American institutions and the tradition of rule through counterweights

Yes, until a disaster has occurred. America is still shocked by its elections and its choice, but it seems to get used to it. However, this situation is temporary. In America itself, we see two trends. On the one hand, the desire of the Republicans “cultivate” and curb Trump and his random randomness, put him into the framework. In the Trump team itself, due to the possibility, this, apparently, does Jared Kushner, the son -in -law of Trump. Although he is also a victim of eclecticism and conflict of interests - like everything in this family corporation ... Some of the candidates for the new administration, in particular, the same future head of the Pentagon, General Mattis, will undoubtedly try to limit Trump throwing. He himself, as evidenced by some interviews, in particular his interview with Politico, begins to realize the seriousness of the challenges with which it is not clear what to do.

But the whole point is that this is a time of situational decisions. They cannot get America out of a pause. All hope for the automatism of American institutions and the tradition of rule through counterweights that help in America to avoid extremes. The hope that life will go further - after all, there is the automatism of the dollar and the Fed and its chairman Ms. Yellen continue to exist. But there are also cardinal questions that are still postponed. And many of them are connected with the need to comprehend the new role of America after the Obamovsky departure. And the temperature "around the world" depends on how America will comprehend itself - for every sneeze of America causes a fever in the world.

- After all the accusations of ties with Moscow and the influence of Russian hackers on Trump's election campaign, it would be the easiest way to disown Putin, but he continues to respond to him with sympathy and insist on the need to improve relations with Russia. What is worth it? The desire to do everything opposed to Obama? Unwillingness to recognize Russia's influence on the course of the elections? Or in fact, you should listen to those who believe that an explosive incriminating evidence is stored in Moscow?

- Dmitry, this, as the Americans themselves say, “Million Dollar Question”. Motives, motives! There is a temptation to do what all observers or those who consider themselves do so do. Most likely, the search for motives that make Trump neglected about his European partners and express a friendly disposition to Putin is the scope of psychologists. Especially when you consider that scattered facts are available to us, contradictory and specially thrown information.

Trump people are full of euphoria and the desire to reformat the world stage. In which direction, it is unclear

Trump’s so stubborn sympathies to the Kremlin and Putin personally, and in a situation where such sympathies may well become an impeachment, seem to be a manifestation of the lack of pragmatism in a person who made situational pragmatism a key to his success. It is possible that we are dealing with a whole fan of motives: Trump's persistence and unwillingness to recognize mistakes, personal interests, naivety, dark past. You can guess to infinity - a good and entertaining topic.

But apparently, Trump and the share of a certain calculation still have. If you read the string of its latest interviews, in particular Bild, Guardian, Time, Politico, then among the cacophony of sounds we will hear a number of obsessive Trump's ideas about threats, including terrorism, Iran and China, according to Trump, are the main threats for America. It is possible that he sees in Putin so far the only ally, with whom you can cooperate in counteracting these threats. And one more thing: judging by the statements of the Trump team, his people are full of euphoria and the desire to reformat the world stage. In which direction, it is unclear. But it is possible that Trumpovites see in Russia, at least, a temporary ally ready to participate in this process and who will support their agenda. If so, they still have to see the fruits of their naivety. But these are all assumptions, like everything related to Trump - a symbol of uncertainty, which is now erected in the principle of American politics. Woe to an American establishment that is used to working in a completely different format!

In the case of overly warm relations with the Kremlin, all allegations will receive justifications that Trump on the hook of Russians

Я думаю, в наших силах обсуждать два вопроса, Первый: насколько серьезны те препятствия, которые сегодня ограничивают тяготение Трампа к созданию личной "оси" с Путиным? Думаю, весьма серьезны. Это и возможность подрыва его легитимации в случае чересчур теплых отношений с Кремлем – в таком случае получат обоснования все утверждения о том, что Трамп на крючке у русских. Это и существование в его команде сторонников сдерживания России – чего только стоит железобетонная уверенность генерала Маттиса в том, что Россия – это угроза для Америки! Это и почти единодушие Конгресса по вопросу о необходимости сдерживать Москву.

Если учесть, что Трамп – это театр одного актера, то сомнительно, что они с Путиным найдут общий язык

Есть и второй вопрос: как сам Трамп рассматривает свой диалог с Кремлем? Если как возможность добиться сделки, то вся история сделок Трампа говорит о том, что он всегда ищет максимум выгоды за счет своих партнеров по сделкам. А если учесть и то, что Трамп – это театр одного актера, то сомнительно, что они с Путиным найдут общий язык. Скорее всего, их общение рано или поздно выбьет искры. Впрочем, пока что готовность Трампа к диалогу с Москвой не выходит за пределы модели, которую пытался осуществлять Обама в период своего первого президентства, – и все мы помним, чем закончилась его "перезагрузка".

Donald Trump

Думаю, что обеим сторонам – Америке и России – придется думать о механизме управления взаимным отчуждением, которое наиболее реально после того, как неоправданные надежды, скорее со стороны нового хозяина Белого дома, завершатся отрезвлением. А такой механизм необходим – для того чтобы избежать ситуаций, когда истребители обеих сторон будут искать, где "красная линия" и кто первый моргнет.

– Все чаще приходится слышать, что Путин почти всесилен. Он влияет на выборы американского президента, его ставленники рвутся к власти в Европе (а кое-где уже победили), повсюду его явные и тайные пропагандисты, он разгромил оппозицию внутри страны, а рейтинг его по-прежнему высок, несмотря на санкции и антисанкции. Теперь уже говорят, что Трамп подражает Путину на своей пресс-конференции. Не преувеличение ли это? Действительно ли Путин столь силен и влиятелен и в чем секрет его успехов?

– Я думаю, что путинский Кремль действительно весьма успешен в использовании массового паралича на глобальной сцене и дезориентации Запада при осуществлении как своих внутренних, так и внешних целей. Если чуждая цивилизация в замешательстве и потеряла вектор, почему бы не использовать удачные обстоятельства? Вот Кремль и использует их! Российская кампания по дискредитации западных стандартов, которым сам Запад следует не всегда последовательно, по поддержке лево-правых недовольных в самом западном обществе, по подрыву западного единства может показаться успешной. Действительно, 37% сторонников республиканцев в Америке, самой антироссийской партии, сегодня симпатизируют Путину – это ли не достижение! А как активно страны Средиземноморья вместе с Австрией требуют отмены российских санкций – настоящая "пятая колонна" внутри Европы! А посмотрите, насколько гибок Париж, впрочем, французы всегда тяготели к игре с Москвой, чтобы досадить Вашингтону. Голлизм, понимаешь!

Нужно видеть и сомнительность кремлевских побед, и их узкий горизонт

Но нужно видеть и сомнительность кремлевских побед, и их узкий горизонт. Так, правые и левые в Европе, которые апеллируют к Кремлю, делают это во многом из-за их антиамериканизма, а не потому, что президент Путин стал их героем. Это своего рода вызов, их "средний палец" Америке. Дружба Москвы с некоторыми пророссийскими лидерами, типа Орбана в Венгрии, является больше следствием их попыток шантажировать Брюссель (и Вашингтон) и добиться от Москвы преференций в обмен за "дружбу". Не будет преференций – не будет и дружбы.

Между тем, у Кремля нет ресурсов для оплаты лояльности, как когда-то делал СССР. Москве уже нечем оплачивать даже лояльность Лукашенко. И вот уже Марин Ле Пен мчится к Трампу просить матпомощь.

Хакерский сезон в Америке привел к невиданной антироссийской консолидации американского истеблишмента

А тем временем "победы" Кремля начинают оборачиваться стратегическими вызовами. Хакерский сезон в Америке привел к невиданной антироссийской консолидации американского истеблишмента, включая Конгресс, который уже вполне может принять одобренный двумя партиями новый пакет антироссийских санкций. Российские попытки влиять на германское общественное мнение привело к резкому усилению антироссийских настроений в обществе, которое всегда относилось к России дружески.

Да, Кремль сумел воспользоваться слабостью Запада. Но сам этот факт заставил заработать закон непреднамеренных последствий – российское наступление заставило западное общество консолидироваться для сдерживания новых кремлевских побед! И этот факт нам еще предстоит ощутить.

– Рекс Тиллерсон, Джеймс Маттис и Майк Помпео на слушаниях в Сенате продемонстрировали, что относятся к путинской России намного хуже, чем избранный президент. Те, кто опасаются сближения Трампа и Путина, говорят о том, что этого не позволят ни конгрессмены, ни чиновники новой администрации. Ваш прогноз: готовится новая "перезагрузка", которая кончится таким же провалом, или санкции будут отменяться, дипломатический кризис уладят, а главной жертвой сближения между Вашингтоном и Москвой станет (как многие опасаются) Украина?

– Вы в своем вопросе подтверждаете, что российское наступление, реальное или фейковое, заставляет другую сторону искать сдерживающие рычаги. Даже такие бывшие партнеры Кремля по бизнесу, как Рекс Тиллерсон, были вынуждены на сенатских слушаниях использовать слова из лексикона сенатора Маккейна. Конечно, сторонники сдерживания России и сторонники "engagement", то есть вовлечения Москвы в диалог, будут бороться за Трампа и за влияние на его курс. Это найдет отражение в непоследовательности его политики и новых "качелях", которые, кстати, присутствовали в политике и Буша-младшего, и Обамы. Эти "качели" находили выражение в поиске баланса между сдерживанием и сотрудничеством с Москвой.

Политика Трампа в отношении России станет головной болью и для Кремля

Этот поиск будет характерен и для новой американской администрации. И сам этот поиск является не только следствием трампизма (самому Трампу еще предстоит понять, что это такое), но и отражением логики внешней политики Америки по отношению к России, которая для американцев является враждебной цивилизацией – иногда соперником, иногда противником. Но цивилизацией, с которой нужно вести дела по целому ряду вопросов, прежде всего в сфере безопасности. Только теперь эти "качели" в силу необузданной натуры Трампа и неопытности его команды будут намного рискованнее. Ирония в том, что его политика в отношении России станет головной болью и для Кремля. Видимо, его обитатели начинают осознавать, что Трамп – не только возможность для собственной игры и легитимации своих химер, но и будущая проблема.