The Ministry of Finance proposed to devalue the ruble by 10 percent

The Ministry of Finance considers the current ruble exchange rate as high, offering to devalue it by 10 percent. According to Kommersant, based on the calculations of the department, with oil of $ 40 per barrel, the calculated average annual ruble should be 69.42 rubles per dollar.

At the current oil price of $ 55 per barrel, the budget deficit will be 1.5 percent of GDP without the application of the budget rule, and the waste of reserve funds is 464 billion rubles. The logic of the calculations of the Ministry of Finance suggests that without the application of the budget rule and without the devaluation of the ruble, the federal budget is possible only with the oil price of $ 76 per barrel and above

With a controlled ruble devaluation, which formally does not affect the free swimming regime, the budget is completely balanced at the oil price of about $ 61 per barrel. At the same price of oil, refusal to use sovereign funds in 2017 is also possible.

According to the calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the current course level - about 60 rubles per dollar - is considered impossible. When implementing the “budget rule”, it will reach this level with oil about 75-80 dollars per barrel with a budget surplus of about 2 percent of GDP and the increase for 2017 of the reserve fund by more than 2.3 trillion rubles.

In December 2016, the head of the counting fee, Tatyana Golikova, said that in 2017, Russia would completely exhaust the reserve fund , and the government will proceed to the use of the National Welfare Fund.

"It is pleased that there will be less reserve money to finance budget expenditures: in 2019 - this is 140 billion rubles. (In 2017 - 1.8 trillion rubles.). But there is also what is worried - an increase in internal borrowing: up to 1.9 trillion rubles a year, which is 680 billion more than in 2016. The more debt, the more it will have to be given over it. interest, ”Golikova explained.

According to the head of the Accounts Chamber, in 2016 the Russians "began to less emotionally relate to what is happening" in the economy. She emphasized that the government did not go to sequestration of budget expenditures and allocated money for import substitution and support of some industries. Golikov described the current situation as a “complete adaptation”, adaptability to current conditions.