Who, whom and how. The whole alignment of the most unpredictable elections in the history of the country is in the review of the Sobrik "New"

French elections are almost always unpredictable, but there should be a limit to everything.

This time there will be no limit. On Sunday, when on socialist primaries, it seems that the last more or less serious candidate-49-year-old idealist Benois Amon-the situation did not become neither clear nor less confusing.

It’s just that the forecasts of the interchange have changed again: taking into account the departure of the next “mastodon” - named Waltz.

The main characters of the presidential race-2017

Ultra -right party "National

• Marin Le Pen - according to polls, the unconditional winner of the first round (from 25%), but in the second - loses

Right Party "Republicans"

• Nicolas Sarkozy (former president) - dropped out

• Alain Juppe (main favorite until November 2016) - I dropped out

• Francois Fillon (winner of the primaries) - promises to withdraw the candidacy if the investigators company criminal proceedings against him. Rating - around 20%.

Center

• Emmanuel Macron is the leader of his own movement “Forward!”. The rating was equal to the Fiions

Socialist party

• Francois Hollande (President) - dropped out

• Manyuel Waltz (former prime minister) - dropped out

• Benois Amon -won the primaries, but is little known to voters. Reding-8-10%. The ultra-Leo J.-. Melanshon (created his own pocket movement "Reassed France") has a rating-13-15%

Le Pen, Fiion and Melanshon are active defenders of any decisions of Vladimir Putin

"Silovik" that gives great hopes

To understand how this presidential race has still developed and who its main characters will dance from the stove.

By the spring of 2014, Manyuel Waltz , the 51-year-old head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, made up such a political weight that it was already considered sociologists as one of the main contenders for the Champs Elysees.

At the end of March 2014, the “charismatic” Minister of the Interior (reminiscent of a more respectable version of Nicolas Sarkozy) convinced President Hollande to remove the “soft -colored” Prime Minister Airo. At this point, both Hollande himself and the social party had already begun to quickly lose interest, and the appearance of a waltz at the head of the government temporarily improved the situation. Just like the explicit turn of the Tandem Hollande-vals towards social liberalism. “The French trust in the government has grown,” hundreds of questions said then.

But from the camp of the socialists, the first moans of indignation of the “frontiers” were heard, demanding a “return to real left -wing values”. ( The murmur will increase, and in January-2017 this will lead to the victory of one of the “frontiers”-Benois Amon-on socialist primaries).

At the same time, on the right flank, as an alternative to former President Nicolas Sarkozy , the candidacy of the boring began to nominate, but the moderate Alena Juppe (born in 1945)-the mayor of Bordeaux, the former Prime Minister, the closest “associate” Jacques Shirak.

Nicolas Sarkozi then sociologists then gave in the region of 25%, Juppe - in the region of 30%.

Well, the ultra -right Marine Le Pen already almost "inevitably ended up in the second round." And she also inevitably played in the finale - at least a jug, even a sarcose, even a waltz.

"Mladoreformer" Macron

The alignment remained about the same until the spring of 2016, when the first “traitor” - Emmanuel Macron (born in 1977), advanced from the ranks of the ill -rich team of Hollande Robko.

Hollande with his own hands pulled out of this pretty guy who showed success during work in the Rothschilds Banker House, a political figure. At first he appointed him his economic adviser, and in August 2014 - the Minister of Economics. He appointed quite spontaneously: it was necessary to shut up the “front-line” mouth and replace the minister of Monbur, who accused Vals-Holland who accused the “left-wing values” directly from the ministerial office. The Mladoreformer Macron was perfect for replacement.

By the spring of 2016, taking advantage of timelessness, the guy has accumulated 10 percent of the rating and created his own political movement "En Marche!" ( translates approximately as “forward!” Or “in motion!” ). And in August he left the government and went with campaign trips around the country.

As a result, by the beginning of autumn 2016, the political alignment looked like this: the right-wing Alain Juppe with a rating of 35%-40%remained the unconditional leader, then Marin Le Pen went with his plus minus, then there was a right sarozy with 25%, then the centrist Macron, who began to bypass Ollanda (he did not gain 13%).

Sociologists almost did not include Sociologists in the sheets of polls about the 2017 election: what is the point if the Republican’s right party has a jupple, which will almost certainly become the president. If only the party leader does not hurt him - Nicolas Sarkozy.

This option was not excluded by Hollande, who in this case received chances first to scratch the Political and Financial businessman Sarkozy, who was hated by many, and there, by tradition, “raise the people” to fight the “brown threat”.

The first departure of mammoths from the stage: Sarkozy, Juppe, Hollande ...

The victory of Sarkozy was considered as a hypothesis only because the right ones first chose a candidate through the primaries. No one knew, no voters will come to them, nor whatever voters will be.

As a result of the primaries, they brought a surprise, but not the one that Sarkozy was waiting for: the “Tatchanist” (in the economy) and “Victorian” (in other matters) Francois Fiion became the winner.

The second one came the Favorite of Juppe, against which the conservative right -wing voters took part in the vote (and the moderate Juppe was “not right” for many) and the fact that Fiion successfully played the map of his “decency”. He, unlike Juppe and Sarkozy, was not involved in corruption scandals until then. "Who at least for a moment can imagine Charles de Gaulle under investigation?" - said Fiion, and this phrase became a symbol of his campaign.

On November 28, President Hollande refused to nomine for a second term, on December 1, was included in the role of the leader of the presidential race, and already on December 1. The first case in the modern history of France (starting with de Gaulle). The circumstances were forced: at first, the incorrigible optimist Olland lost his opponent in the form of a sarcose, and then acquired him in the person of his own premiere of the waltz.

For Hollande, this was the second “betrayal”, and for the waltz-a risky step in the election abyss: any candidate for president from socialists was not set above the fourth or fifth place.

The wounded mammoth Fillon

On the evening of January 22, 49-year-old Benois Amon , who suddenly won the first tour of “socialist primaries” (which actually initially prepared “near Hollande”) came out of the back room.

In the evening of the 24th, a more interesting event took place: the Canard Enchanké satirical newspaper announced the release of the material about how the wife of the right candidate Francois Fion, housekeeper Penelope received almost 500 thousand euros as an “assistant to the deputy” and another 100 thousand euros as a “literary adviser”.

The National Finance Prosecutor's Office opened a preliminary investigation.

The “impeccable” politician at one point became “like everyone else”.

Three days later, the JDD newspaper and the Mediapart website accused Fiion of possible fraud with the Senate money.

The scandals arrived in time very on time: on Sunday, January 29, the main election rally of Fiion was appointed.

Macron - Candidate No. 1 (as of 01/31/2017)

The fall of Fiion gave some chance to the “gravitating to the right” to the socialist Valsu-he only needed to win the social round in the second round. primaries. Almost all socialist deputies and senators and several ministers signed up for the “serious statesman” of the waltz, almost none of those who have at least some power levers for the quiet “frontder”. The Waltz rating “around the country” also ahead of Amon.

But the fate of socialist primaries was decided by 2 million people - this is 5 percent of the number of all French voters ( i.e., the results were even more accidental than that of the right, whose appearance was more than two times higher ). Amon won.

The victory of the “sincere left” Amon - to the “centrist” Macron, who now, with the departure of the waltz, remains the only “passing alternative” for everyone who does not want either the right conservative of Fiion, nor the ultra -right Le Pen.

Now Macron in polls catch up with Fiion (and according to some reports, it is already ahead of it). Le Pen still “wins the first tour” and “loses the second” - in any situation.

It is not necessary to predict how to change the pre -election alignment in the near future, because any flew who arrived from where the ball can change the picture of this political bowling. How one newspaper article has already changed it.

Are you, by chance, not in the Champs Elysees?

The main thing in these elections: there is no and will not be a candidate who, without hesitation, would support any significant number of voters.

Fiion, Macron, especially - Amon - few people were going to vote for them six months ago ... The unexpected favorite of Macron had never been advanced in his life in any election.

The faithful voter has only Marin Le Pen-for which, by the way, a whole chain of financial investigations stretches, but all this somehow does not stick to her.

... By the way, and against Macron last week the charge was charged - that he spent 120 thousand euros from the box office of the Ministry of Economics “on its needs”. The accusation appeared in the book and so far does not seem to attract the attention of investigators. But who knows ...

... But watching these elections is not boring.

On Sunday, the protagonist of the election rally Francois Fiion was his wife Penelope. 15 thousand supporters of the right, gathered in the Paris Hall of La Villette, met her as a heroine and a victim. Penelope was handed flowers, from the scene of the audience they asked to get up and arrange a standing ovation - the hall stood up ... "Penelope! Penelope!" - Taxpayers were delighted.

The JE Suis Penelope poster completed the picture of the absurd.

PS

On Wednesday, February 1, the same Canard Enchanké newspaper, almost always preferred to submit a murderous compromise in portions, said that Penelope received money from 1988 to 1990. So, according to the latest estimates, her earnings in parliament amounted to not 500 thousand, but 831,440 euros. The children of Fiion earned 84 thousand as assistants.

Upon learning of new leaks, Fiion said about the extremely professional, “unprecedented in the history of the V Republic” (starting with de Gaulle), the “slanderous campaign”. There have been no messages about the candidate’s intention to submit to the newspaper.